NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	97		Excitement	3.9 [1040]		MVP	Tracy McGrady (HOU): +10.5%
Milwaukee Bucks	93		Comeback	1.2 [617]		LVP	Charlie Villanueva (MIL): -9.2%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tracy McGrady	0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.04,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1	0.11	0.01	0.01	19	65%	0.18	4	-0.08	11	64%	-0.04
Dikembe Mutombo	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	0.01	0.02	6	71%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Yao Ming	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.02	0.01	-0.05	24	44%	0.06	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Luther Head	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	5	60%	0.06	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Snyder	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	0.01	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.08	0.01	-0.08	13	43%	0.05	4	-0.05	2	50%	-0.00
Charles Hayes	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.01	5	60%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Charlie Bell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.13	-0.01	0.06	15	65%	0.05	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.04
Brian Skinner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	3	67%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Michael Redd	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.01,0,0.01	0.01	0.13	-0.01	0.11	21	61%	0.02	2	-0.01	14	86%	0.02
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	4	42%	-0.01	1	-0.00	4	25%	-0.05
Andrew Bogut	0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	7	39%	-0.01	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.00
Ruben Patterson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.01	4	40%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Mo Williams	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.01	0.03	10	45%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	8	44%	-0.01	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	2.0	29.0	15.6	24.4	1.0	37.0	133.9
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +41.5%

HOU +1.1%

HOU +10.1%

MIL -0.6%

MIL -2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	MIL	NBA	HOU	MIL	NBA
this game	16.0	15.3	15.4	104.3	102.2	104.5
season	15.6	15.2		103.6	105.3
opponent	15.5	15.7		109.9	99.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	13.1	18.7	14.2	17.7	16.0
MIL	21.2	14.7	15.2	11.1	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tracy McGrady	72	70	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.15	16	-12	28	15.1	18.8	-3.67	15.9	13.4	2.47
Charles Hayes	55	56	0.58	-0.08	0.65	-0.04	21	-17	38	14.8	17.7	-2.86	17.0	12.6	4.44
Rafer Alston	74	72	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.27	10	-6	16	14.9	20.0	-5.07	15.7	13.8	1.88
Shane Battier	68	68	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.26	2	2	0	15.5	17.2	-1.74	14.7	17.1	-2.35
Dikembe Mutombo	23	21	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.05	8	-4	12	17.1	15.6	1.54	17.8	14.6	3.16
Yao Ming	68	68	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.32	-4	8	-12	15.7	16.8	-1.08	14.5	17.8	-3.28
Luther Head	56	53	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.39	-7	11	-18	17.3	14.0	3.31	14.5	16.5	-2.01
Kirk Snyder	25	24	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.29	-14	18	-32	18.5	15.0	3.44	13.9	15.9	-1.98
Juwan Howard	24	23	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.21	-12	16	-28	19.7	14.7	4.99	13.7	15.9	-2.24

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brian Skinner	43	44	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.45	16	-20	36	12.8	17.6	-4.73	18.2	14.0	4.25
Steve Blake	39	39	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.49	16	-20	36	12.7	17.3	-4.66	17.6	14.8	2.84
Dan Gadzuric	46	47	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.51	16	-20	36	13.5	17.2	-3.66	18.7	13.2	5.44
Charlie Bell	61	63	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.46	10	-14	24	13.4	19.2	-5.77	16.8	14.1	2.71
Ruben Patterson	34	35	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	0.04	-14	10	-24	19.0	13.1	5.91	14.7	16.7	-2.06
Michael Redd	87	88	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.34	-4	0	-4	15.2	17.7	-2.53	15.9	18.0	-2.15
Andrew Bogut	42	42	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	0.13	-20	16	-36	17.7	13.3	4.47	14.4	17.3	-2.85
Mo Williams	56	59	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	0.05	-18	14	-32	16.9	12.9	3.97	13.6	20.1	-6.54
Charlie Villanueva	47	48	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	0.12	-22	18	-40	17.6	12.9	4.73	14.2	17.8	-3.55

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.32,0.3,0.34,0.34,0.29,0.37,0.3,0.32,0.36,0.33,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.21,0.18,0.13,0.09,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.02,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 104, DET 87	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.29,0.29,0.35,0.3,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.2,0.25,0.21,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	96.2%
ORL 104, CHA 93	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.38,0.34,0.35,0.31,0.32,0.29,0.39,0.33,0.27,0.27,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.13,0.14,0.08,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.0%
DAL 119, MEM 108	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.51,0.53,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.28,0.3,0.37,0.35,0.29,0.32,0.32,0.24,0.31,0.25,0.33,0.22,0.19,0.16,0.15,0.09,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0.02,0.07,0.19,0.03,0.02,0,0	95.9%