NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	90		Excitement	6.9 [434]		MVP	Eddie Jones (MIA): +21.6%
Charlotte Hornets	97		Comeback	2.4 [606]		LVP	Rod Strickland (MIA): -13.8%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Jones	0.22	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.24,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.14	0.11	0.03	17	69%	0.25	1	-0.03	5	100%	0.03
Eddie House	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05	-0.02	0.05	-0.01	12	46%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Brian Grant	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	-0.01	-0.01	9	60%	0.03	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Chris Gatling	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	13	48%	0.02	1	-0.02	3	0%	-0.05
LaPhonso Ellis	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kendall Gill	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	7	57%	0.01	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	3	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vladimir Stepania	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	5	42%	-0.05	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.03
Rod Strickland	-0.14	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.07	-0.04	0.03	9	40%	-0.05	2	-0.09	2	100%	0.01

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.04	0.08	0.00	16	58%	0.14	1	-0.02	6	67%	0.02
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.04	0.00	11	64%	0.11	3	-0.07	6	67%	0.01
Baron Davis	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	14	69%	0.14	6	-0.14	4	50%	-0.02
Stacey Augmon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.01	0.00	6	33%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
George Lynch	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.01	9	54%	-0.02	2	-0.06	10	90%	0.04
David Wesley	0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	12	47%	-0.05	1	-0.03	10	50%	-0.03
Elden Campbell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	0.00	3	0%	-0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.7	1.8	29.0	16.0	22.1	2.4	33.5	130.5
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHH +1.2%

CHH +15.5%

CHH +46.3%

MIA -14.7%

CHH +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CHH	NBA	MIA	CHH	NBA
this game	15.6	15.5	15.6	97.8	104.3	102.3
season	16.5	15.9		96.6	102.2
opponent	15.6	15.8		101.1	98.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.8	15.7	14.7	16.2	15.6
CHH	14.2	15.6	15.9	16.5	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Gatling	14	14	0.19	-0.69	0.88	0.07	4	-11	15	15.7	15.6	0.15	15.1	15.6	-0.56
Kendall Gill	41	42	0.12	-0.62	0.74	-0.06	6	-13	19	14.7	16.3	-1.67	15.1	15.9	-0.74
LaPhonso Ellis	26	27	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.05	-2	-5	3	16.5	15.2	1.27	14.0	16.2	-2.23
Anthony Carter	33	33	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	0.00	-7	0	-7	16.3	15.2	1.07	15.2	15.8	-0.62
Vladimir Stepania	36	37	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	0.01	-9	2	-11	16.4	15.1	1.27	14.7	16.1	-1.45
Rod Strickland	51	50	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.29	-1	-6	5	15.3	16.0	-0.70	16.4	14.5	1.93
Eddie House	52	54	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.26	-7	0	-7	15.9	15.2	0.73	15.6	15.5	0.11
Alonzo Mourning	63	61	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.27	-7	0	-7	15.5	15.7	-0.15	16.5	13.7	2.84
Brian Grant	65	67	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.37	-5	-2	-3	15.3	16.2	-0.85	15.3	16.3	-1.00
Eddie Jones	79	80	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.36	-7	0	-7	15.3	17.1	-1.74	15.8	13.7	2.16

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Baron Davis	84	83	0.75	-0.25	0.99	0.36	13	-6	19	15.7	14.6	1.10	15.7	15.0	0.65
Jamaal Magloire	69	70	0.68	-0.18	0.87	0.36	11	-4	15	16.3	13.4	2.87	15.5	15.8	-0.24
P.J. Brown	71	70	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.35	8	-1	9	15.6	15.4	0.24	15.5	15.9	-0.42
Jamal Mashburn	80	77	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.28	2	5	-3	15.6	15.2	0.46	15.2	17.5	-2.25
David Wesley	75	75	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.13	2	5	-3	14.6	19.4	-4.83	15.3	16.8	-1.44
Stacey Augmon	33	33	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.10	1	6	-5	16.9	14.8	2.16	16.6	15.0	1.59
George Lynch	29	30	0.01	0.49	-0.48	-0.05	2	5	-3	15.8	15.5	0.31	16.1	15.3	0.81
Elden Campbell	24	22	-0.18	0.68	-0.87	-0.07	-4	11	-15	13.4	16.3	-2.87	15.8	15.5	0.24

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.69,0.64,0.7,0.78,0.74,0.66,0.64,0.7,0.76,0.77,0.75,0.76,0.66,0.63,0.68,0.46,0.3,0.33,0.52,0.42,0.53,0.6,0.73,0.64,0.85,0.98,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 92, ORL 101	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.57,0.62,0.61,0.58,0.51,0.46,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.59,0.64,0.64,0.69,0.72,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.75,0.72,0.73,0.76,0.82,0.8,0.78,0.79,0.71,0.72,0.54,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.71,0.78,0.76,0.77,0.99,1,1	92.7%
UTA 99, ATL 106	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.46,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.61,0.7,0.73,0.79,0.75,0.73,0.75,0.66,0.66,0.61,0.7,0.79,0.84,0.8,0.82,0.82,0.63,0.64,0.5,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.37,0.59,0.6,0.39,0.61,0.81,0.85,0.85,1	92.1%
NYK 80, NJN 85	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.59,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.74,0.71,0.72,0.67,0.73,0.82,0.74,0.69,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.5,0.57,0.38,0.58,0.63,0.74,0.81,0.73,0.62,0.77,0.96,1,1	92.1%