NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	111		Excitement	6.4 [534]		MVP	Wally Szczerbiak (MIN): +17.8%
Minnesota Timberwolves	113		Comeback	1.1 [614]		LVP	Steve Nash (DAL): -23.1%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0.18	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.1,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.18	0.15	0.06	0.03	18	71%	0.20	1	-0.02	12	83%	0.01
Shawn Bradley	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.10	0.05	0.01	3	100%	0.13	0	0.00	8	100%	0.06
Raef LaFrentz	0.05	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.00	0.01	4	100%	0.07	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.12	-0.08	0.01	13	77%	0.11	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Wang Zhi-zhi	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.06	0.00	0.05	5	75%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Greg Buckner	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Johnny Newman	-0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.01	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eduardo Najera	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.01	5	42%	-0.03	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Michael Finley	-0.13	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13	-0.06	-0.09	-0.02	16	37%	-0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Steve Nash	-0.23	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.07,-0.23	-0.07	-0.17	-0.01	10	35%	-0.17	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wally Szczerbiak	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.17	0.03	0.02	16	81%	0.22	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.10	0.06	0.02	14	64%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.01	-0.01	3	80%	0.06	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Sam Mitchell	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	9	44%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.15,0.12,0	0.00	0.05	-0.05	-0.01	12	65%	0.01	1	-0.01	7	57%	-0.06
Gary Trent	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	58%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Felipe Lopez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Peeler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	5	27%	-0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	-0.00
Robert Pack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.1	-0.10	0.02	-0.10	0.03	18	56%	-0.07	2	-0.03	5	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.6	2.7	29.2	20.0	27.0	2.5	41.7	147.6
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +18.2%

DAL -7.8%

MIN +21.2%

MIN +13.5%

MIN +5.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	MIN	NBA	DAL	MIN	NBA
this game	16.0	16.3	15.6	124.7	127.0	102.3
season	14.8	15.0		109.6	106.7
opponent	16.1	15.5		103.8	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	15.4	14.7	18.2	16.2	16.0
MIN	16.6	14.1	16.1	19.0	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wang Zhi-zhi	27	29	0.14	-0.64	0.78	-0.27	14	-16	30	15.9	16.1	-0.22	16.4	16.3	0.10
Shawn Bradley	32	33	0.12	-0.62	0.75	-0.37	17	-19	36	16.7	15.7	0.95	18.4	15.1	3.30
Greg Buckner	26	26	0.09	-0.59	0.68	-0.12	7	-9	16	15.5	16.3	-0.82	16.6	16.2	0.42
Avery Johnson	21	20	0.04	-0.54	0.57	-0.14	6	-8	14	17.8	15.5	2.31	17.9	15.9	2.04
Johnny Newman	17	18	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.10	-10	8	-18	14.9	16.3	-1.36	17.2	16.1	1.07
Nick Van Exel	57	57	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.47	8	-10	18	15.6	16.7	-1.10	16.3	16.4	-0.09
Eduardo Najera	21	21	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.00	-13	11	-24	17.1	15.7	1.44	13.8	17.1	-3.34
Dirk Nowitzki	76	75	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.38	0	-2	2	16.0	16.2	-0.13	16.4	15.7	0.71
Raef LaFrentz	42	40	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.00	-17	15	-32	16.3	15.8	0.46	15.7	16.8	-1.07
Michael Finley	71	69	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.32	-7	5	-12	16.0	16.4	-0.43	15.5	19.0	-3.53
Steve Nash	55	57	-0.69	0.19	-0.87	-0.25	-15	13	-28	15.7	16.7	-1.02	16.3	16.3	0.00

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wally Szczerbiak	81	81	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.37	9	-7	16	16.6	13.1	3.50	16.3	13.6	2.66
Sam Mitchell	54	55	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.16	14	-12	26	17.2	14.9	2.36	16.0	16.1	-0.07
Kevin Garnett	66	67	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.33	4	-2	6	15.8	17.8	-2.04	15.8	16.8	-1.03
Gary Trent	26	25	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.02	14	-12	26	14.5	17.0	-2.51	16.9	15.7	1.22
Chauncey Billups	73	73	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.45	-3	5	-8	16.4	15.9	0.54	16.5	14.2	2.26
Robert Pack	16	16	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.07	5	-3	8	15.9	16.4	-0.54	14.2	16.5	-2.26
Rasho Nesterovic	61	61	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.37	-9	11	-20	17.4	14.0	3.38	16.4	15.2	1.26
Anthony Peeler	37	37	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.23	-10	12	-22	16.8	16.0	0.85	15.6	16.3	-0.68
Joe Smith	22	21	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.12	-7	9	-16	14.5	16.9	-2.35	15.1	16.3	-1.18
Felipe Lopez	9	9	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.09	-7	9	-16	12.0	16.8	-4.80	14.6	16.2	-1.66

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.57,0.59,0.59,0.62,0.69,0.61,0.5,0.56,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.54,0.63,0.69,0.61,0.61,0.7,0.8,0.82,0.86,0.88,0.93,0.94,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.85,0.85,0.9,0.86,0.81,0.79,0.88,0.78,0.8,0.85,0.84,0.74,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 113, NOP 115	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.57,0.59,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.65,0.75,0.75,0.72,0.81,0.86,0.84,0.89,0.84,0.82,0.91,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.87,0.87,0.81,0.79,0.89,0.73,0.74,0.76,0.73,0.93,0.72,0.77,0.73,1	93.4%
UTA 77, SEA 84	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.61,0.6,0.54,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.58,0.62,0.58,0.61,0.7,0.73,0.76,0.81,0.82,0.84,0.86,0.82,0.83,0.87,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.96,0.9,0.93,0.91,0.83,0.88,0.92,0.88,0.78,0.9,0.85,0.93,0.98,1	93.3%
DEN 89, UTA 94	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.53,0.5,0.47,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.59,0.66,0.61,0.69,0.75,0.8,0.88,0.82,0.82,0.81,0.79,0.74,0.85,0.89,0.85,0.84,0.87,0.9,0.9,0.82,0.87,0.88,0.74,0.88,0.78,0.86,0.78,0.78,0.74,1	92.8%