NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	89		Excitement	6.0 [364]		MVP	John Stockton (UTA): +15.1%
Utah Jazz	94		Comeback	1.2 [725]		LVP	Bryant Stith (DEN): -27.7%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antonio McDyess	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.1	0.08	0.01	-0.01	26	66%	0.28	5	-0.18	7	71%	-0.02
Johnny Taylor	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	10	52%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Keon Clark	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Fortson	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Carl Herrera	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Williams	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	6	71%	0.06	3	-0.08	5	60%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	-0.07	0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	7	56%	0.02	4	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Chauncey Billups	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.11	-0.01	-0.02	8	12%	-0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Cory Alexander	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.15,-0.15	-0.03	-0.13	-0.01	7	37%	-0.15	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Bryant Stith	-0.28	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.28	-0.08	-0.19	0.00	7	29%	-0.21	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Stockton	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.15	0.15	0.07	0.07	-0.01	8	89%	0.22	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.05
Thurl Bailey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.03	0.00	10	52%	0.06	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Adam Keefe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	83%	0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Greg Ostertag	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	1	75%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jeff Hornacek	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0	0.00	0.05	-0.04	0.01	8	68%	0.02	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Shandon Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	4	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Greg Foster	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Karl Malone	0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,0.06,0.04,0,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	21	52%	0.01	2	-0.05	12	83%	0.01
Bryon Russell	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	7	43%	-0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Howard Eisley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	6	50%	0.01	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	38.1	2.0	29.3	14.7	22.2	2.5	33.2	142.1
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +23.5%

UTA +9.1%

DEN -5.2%

UTA +17.5%

UTA +5.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	UTA	NBA	DEN	UTA	NBA
this game	17.8	16.4	15.8	104.7	113.3	99.6
season	15.5	16.4		100.7	102.6
opponent	16.0	15.6		96.1	107.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	17.7	18.0	19.8	15.9	17.8
UTA	15.7	15.4	17.1	17.6	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carl Herrera	11	10	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.02	2	-7	9	17.3	17.9	-0.65	14.7	16.7	-1.97
Eric Williams	29	29	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.07	0	-5	5	19.3	17.1	2.19	16.5	16.4	0.08
Cory Alexander	37	38	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.30	5	-10	15	17.1	18.4	-1.34	17.3	15.7	1.58
Chauncey Billups	26	24	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	0.03	-8	3	-11	20.2	16.8	3.40	15.6	16.8	-1.14
Bryant Stith	51	52	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.34	4	-9	13	17.2	18.9	-1.70	17.1	15.4	1.72
Keon Clark	33	34	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.29	2	-7	9	16.8	18.5	-1.61	17.1	16.0	1.06
Danny Fortson	47	44	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.02	-11	6	-17	19.3	16.0	3.37	16.1	16.8	-0.73
Nick Van Exel	56	53	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.10	-10	5	-15	17.9	17.8	0.06	15.7	17.8	-2.14
Johnny Taylor	56	53	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.28	-6	1	-7	17.1	19.3	-2.19	16.3	16.7	-0.36
Antonio McDyess	79	78	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.38	-3	-2	-1	17.4	23.2	-5.74	16.6	14.2	2.38

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Stockton	52	55	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.22	9	-4	13	15.5	17.9	-2.40	17.8	17.9	-0.05
Jeff Hornacek	55	57	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.28	6	-1	7	15.6	18.1	-2.53	17.9	17.6	0.34
Thurl Bailey	34	33	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.21	5	0	5	17.4	15.8	1.66	16.2	18.9	-2.70
Karl Malone	62	65	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.36	-1	6	-7	15.7	18.6	-2.93	18.6	15.4	3.18
Bryon Russell	61	61	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.36	-2	7	-9	16.4	16.5	-0.09	18.4	16.5	1.86
Greg Ostertag	43	45	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.11	5	0	5	16.0	16.9	-0.95	18.1	17.6	0.49
Adam Keefe	22	24	0.20	0.30	-0.09	-0.00	7	-2	9	16.5	16.4	0.09	16.5	18.4	-1.86
Greg Foster	27	27	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.03	1	4	-3	17.6	15.9	1.77	17.7	17.9	-0.25
Shandon Anderson	28	28	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.08	-1	6	-7	18.1	15.6	2.53	17.6	17.9	-0.34
Howard Eisley	31	30	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.13	-4	9	-13	17.9	15.5	2.40	17.9	17.8	0.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.53,0.5,0.47,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.59,0.66,0.61,0.69,0.75,0.8,0.88,0.82,0.82,0.81,0.79,0.74,0.85,0.89,0.85,0.84,0.87,0.9,0.9,0.82,0.87,0.88,0.74,0.88,0.78,0.86,0.78,0.78,0.74,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 103, IND 104	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.4,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.59,0.6,0.55,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.67,0.65,0.7,0.71,0.69,0.77,0.7,0.78,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.78,0.86,0.82,0.83,0.81,0.86,0.88,0.93,0.9,0.92,0.88,0.86,0.88,0.89,0.94,0.67,0.8,0.92,0.76,0.85,1	93.2%
UTA 102, MIA 104	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.45,0.41,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.66,0.73,0.81,0.9,0.87,0.81,0.84,0.82,0.85,0.87,0.91,0.84,0.87,0.9,0.87,0.82,0.87,0.84,0.89,0.88,0.87,0.99,0.9,0.9,0.72,1	93.1%
GSW 95, POR 96	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.49,0.57,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.58,0.67,0.67,0.75,0.77,0.74,0.78,0.76,0.81,0.8,0.78,0.91,0.85,0.91,0.89,0.85,0.9,0.9,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.93,0.78,0.78,0.83,1	92.9%