NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Utah Jazz	102		Excitement	7.3 [323]		MVP	Daequan Cook (MIA): +47.3%
Miami Heat	104		Comeback	1.6 [579]		LVP	Ronnie Brewer (UTA): -9.9%

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrei Kirilenko	0.20	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.2,0.2	0.07	0.13	-0.00	9	70%	0.27	3	-0.07	12	75%	-0.00
CJ Miles	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.12,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.14,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.13	0.03	0.00	14	67%	0.16	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Matt Harpring	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.14	0.01	0.15	0.01	5	50%	0.17	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.11
Paul Millsap	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	8	57%	0.08	1	-0.04	5	40%	-0.04
Carlos Boozer	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.15,0.02	-0.15	0.17	-0.00	16	28%	0.07	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.02
Deron Williams	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.01,0.01	0.08	-0.05	0.03	14	59%	0.03	1	-0.02	9	67%	-0.02
Jarron Collins	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	62%	0.02	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Kyrylo Fesenko	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Hart	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	3	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Ronnie Brewer	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	4	25%	-0.03	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Daequan Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.47	0.47	0.11	0.36	0.00	8	75%	0.47	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.13,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.1,0.19,0.46	0.46	0.01	0.44	-0.00	14	53%	0.50	2	-0.04	10	80%	0.05
Dorell Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.09	0.02	0.00	7	75%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Earl Barron	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.02	0.00	6	87%	0.15	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Ricky Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.04	-0.01	11	55%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	9	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shaquille O'Neal	0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	16	50%	0.04	5	-0.10	2	50%	-0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	8	33%	-0.04	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.9	2.5	30.6	14.8	28.3	1.7	39.3	141.2
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +66.2%

UTA -2.1%

UTA -17.3%

MIA +7.2%

UTA -4.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	UTA	MIA	NBA	UTA	MIA	NBA
this game	15.4	15.8	15.4	109.7	113.0	105.7
season	15.5	16.0		111.2	99.0
opponent	15.4	15.0		108.3	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
UTA	17.1	17.0	14.3	13.3	15.4
MIA	14.8	15.0	16.2	16.8	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jarron Collins	48	45	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.14	7	-9	16	15.3	15.5	-0.24	14.5	17.0	-2.51
Ronnie Brewer	40	40	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.06	-3	1	-4	16.1	14.8	1.29	14.8	16.4	-1.59
Jason Hart	25	23	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.07	-3	1	-4	16.2	15.1	1.17	17.6	15.1	2.42
Kyrylo Fesenko	9	9	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	0.03	-7	5	-12	18.8	15.0	3.75	14.1	15.9	-1.82
Carlos Boozer	63	63	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.40	6	-8	14	14.9	16.4	-1.45	15.8	15.7	0.14
Deron Williams	78	77	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.43	3	-5	8	15.2	16.5	-1.37	15.6	16.6	-1.02
CJ Miles	53	52	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.38	1	-3	4	14.8	16.1	-1.29	16.4	14.8	1.59
Andrei Kirilenko	69	69	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.39	1	-3	4	15.0	16.4	-1.33	15.2	17.4	-2.19
Paul Millsap	47	47	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.11	-10	8	-18	15.9	14.9	1.02	16.6	14.9	1.69
Matt Harpring	33	35	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.26	-5	3	-8	15.4	15.4	0.01	16.9	15.1	1.83

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Udonis Haslem	76	76	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.36	6	-4	10	15.1	18.9	-3.86	15.1	16.6	-1.47
Earl Barron	27	27	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.05	12	-10	22	16.1	15.6	0.56	15.7	15.2	0.50
Ricky Davis	62	61	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.31	3	-1	4	16.5	14.2	2.35	15.2	15.7	-0.51
Dwyane Wade	69	72	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.39	-1	3	-4	15.0	18.0	-3.00	15.4	15.4	-0.05
Daequan Cook	43	44	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.41	-4	6	-10	16.6	15.0	1.60	14.2	16.4	-2.24
Jason Williams	65	65	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.26	1	1	0	15.8	15.6	0.22	15.6	15.0	0.55
Dorell Wright	60	61	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.25	-3	5	-8	16.0	15.3	0.72	16.1	14.0	2.16
Shaquille O'Neal	58	59	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.16	-4	6	-10	15.6	16.1	-0.54	15.7	14.9	0.84

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.45,0.41,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.66,0.73,0.81,0.9,0.87,0.81,0.84,0.82,0.85,0.87,0.91,0.84,0.87,0.9,0.87,0.82,0.87,0.84,0.89,0.88,0.87,0.99,0.9,0.9,0.72,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 89, MIL 95	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.53,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.54,0.61,0.69,0.61,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.79,0.83,0.78,0.81,0.84,0.74,0.8,0.86,0.96,0.94,0.9,0.95,0.96,0.93,0.94,0.93,0.96,0.91,0.93,0.99,0.89,0.86,0.96,1	93.8%
LAL 93, POR 99	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.57,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.71,0.69,0.77,0.78,0.7,0.71,0.75,0.82,0.83,0.81,0.87,0.88,0.87,0.91,0.96,0.95,0.95,0.9,0.85,0.83,0.85,0.92,0.88,0.93,0.89,0.93,0.95,0.91,1	93.8%
CLE 98, CHH 109	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.51,0.65,0.67,0.59,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.74,0.72,0.78,0.84,0.79,0.82,0.81,0.9,0.87,0.9,0.91,0.9,0.89,0.92,0.94,0.9,0.88,0.83,0.85,0.9,0.85,0.94,0.97,1,1,1,1	93.6%