NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	104		Excitement	6.5 [518]		MVP	Pat Garrity (ORL): +16.8%
Charlotte Hornets	111		Comeback	1.0 [1021]		LVP	Tracy McGrady (ORL): -19.6%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pat Garrity	0.17	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.14	0.08	0.05	9	90%	0.20	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Horace Grant	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.08	0.02	-0.01	13	63%	0.12	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Patrick Ewing	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jud Buechler	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.08	0.03	-0.02	10	43%	0.05	3	-0.07	3	100%	0.01
Monty Williams	-0.04	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	0.02	7	56%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Andrew DeClercq	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Troy Hudson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.03,-0.02,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.05	-0.07	0.02	17	66%	0.10	4	-0.14	4	100%	0.03
Don Reid	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	-0.20	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2	-0.08	-0.09	0.03	24	46%	-0.06	3	-0.14	6	50%	-0.03

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.13,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.16,0.14	0.14	0.08	0.06	-0.00	13	67%	0.18	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01
Lee Nailon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.05	0.00	6	64%	0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
George Lynch	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.00	4	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.05	-0.01	0.02	11	70%	0.06	2	-0.05	8	62%	-0.02
Robert Traylor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	8	41%	0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Baron Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.01	10	62%	0.04	2	-0.04	4	25%	-0.04
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.01	15	59%	0.09	4	-0.11	4	75%	0.00
Stacey Augmon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	0	100%	0.02	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.5	1.8	25.7	15.0	23.2	2.5	31.4	125.2
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHH +40.1%

CHH +1.3%

CHH +3.2%

CHH +3.8%

CHH +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	CHH	NBA	ORL	CHH	NBA
this game	14.7	15.8	15.6	109.5	118.1	102.3
season	14.6	15.9		104.6	102.2
opponent	15.6	15.8		101.1	103.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	16.1	15.6	15.8	11.7	14.7
CHH	13.9	16.4	17.8	15.4	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jud Buechler	13	12	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.03	-3	-4	1	15.5	14.6	0.97	16.8	15.6	1.21
Patrick Ewing	12	11	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	0.07	-7	0	-7	13.5	14.9	-1.38	18.0	15.5	2.52
Andrew DeClercq	5	5	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.03	-5	-2	-3	13.4	14.8	-1.38	13.4	15.9	-2.51
Horace Grant	68	69	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.30	3	-10	13	15.4	13.0	2.33	15.8	15.7	0.13
Don Reid	17	17	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.02	-8	1	-9	15.0	14.6	0.36	15.5	15.8	-0.37
Darrell Armstrong	81	80	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.25	-1	-6	5	14.5	15.9	-1.43	15.7	16.0	-0.26
Pat Garrity	83	81	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.29	0	-7	7	14.4	16.7	-2.34	15.7	16.2	-0.44
Monty Williams	44	45	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.07	-8	1	-9	16.8	12.9	3.85	15.7	15.8	-0.13
Troy Hudson	69	67	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.34	1	-8	9	13.3	18.4	-5.12	16.0	15.3	0.67
Tracy McGrady	83	83	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.24	-7	0	-7	14.8	14.1	0.71	15.5	18.0	-2.52

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Baron Davis	84	85	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.26	7	0	7	16.0	13.6	2.44	14.7	14.9	-0.22
P.J. Brown	59	61	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.25	5	2	3	15.5	16.3	-0.81	16.3	11.9	4.40
Jamal Mashburn	77	78	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.26	4	3	1	16.1	14.4	1.74	14.8	14.2	0.64
Robert Traylor	27	28	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.01	10	-3	13	15.2	16.0	-0.83	13.4	15.2	-1.81
Jamaal Magloire	62	62	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.23	2	5	-3	16.6	14.2	2.41	15.9	12.5	3.45
Stacey Augmon	30	31	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.12	5	2	3	14.6	16.3	-1.73	13.5	15.3	-1.77
George Lynch	21	21	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.00	2	5	-3	16.7	15.5	1.21	11.9	15.5	-3.66
Lee Nailon	27	27	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.04	0	7	-7	15.3	16.0	-0.73	13.3	15.2	-1.92

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.68,0.68,0.74,0.75,0.81,0.74,0.74,0.73,0.78,0.81,0.77,0.75,0.67,0.69,0.66,0.67,0.7,0.7,0.74,0.75,0.75,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.74,0.81,0.91,0.91,0.95,0.92,0.71,0.78,0.62,0.85,0.89,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 91, WAS 100	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.64,0.63,0.62,0.58,0.66,0.7,0.76,0.8,0.77,0.83,0.82,0.84,0.77,0.8,0.76,0.83,0.78,0.75,0.71,0.66,0.72,0.73,0.7,0.65,0.72,0.76,0.7,0.7,0.75,0.85,0.87,0.85,0.89,0.92,0.94,0.85,0.78,0.69,0.71,0.84,0.98,1	94.7%
NYK 71, PHI 80	0.5,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.56,0.6,0.61,0.63,0.63,0.65,0.67,0.68,0.7,0.7,0.73,0.73,0.71,0.76,0.79,0.78,0.81,0.75,0.7,0.75,0.74,0.77,0.73,0.77,0.76,0.79,0.77,0.78,0.76,0.78,0.82,0.87,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.91,0.92,0.88,0.73,0.75,0.78,0.77,0.99,1	94.0%
LAL 82, POR 88	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.67,0.74,0.75,0.72,0.73,0.72,0.75,0.73,0.69,0.63,0.7,0.82,0.8,0.79,0.78,0.67,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.7,0.67,0.77,0.8,0.79,0.79,0.86,0.85,0.87,0.9,0.94,0.95,0.88,0.94,0.88,0.87,0.75,0.79,0.9,0.97,1	94.0%