NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	102		Excitement	5.0 [812]		MVP	Monty Williams (ORL): +14.5%
Orlando Magic	124		Comeback	1.0 [1213]		LVP	Juwan Howard (DEN): -9.6%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carlos Arroyo	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.00	-0.03	8	61%	0.07	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Donnell Harvey	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	-0.00	6	68%	0.04	0	0.00	7	71%	-0.00
Zendon Hamilton	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mengke Bateer	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.06	0.00	-0.04	7	44%	0.01	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Ryan Bowen	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	2	60%	0.01	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Antonio McDyess	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	11	72%	0.08	5	-0.10	3	67%	-0.02
Calbert Cheaney	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	0.00	0.02	8	56%	0.02	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
James Posey	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	-0.01	-0.03	12	37%	-0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
George McCloud	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.12	-0.02	-0.04	8	50%	0.04	6	-0.14	2	100%	0.01
Juwan Howard	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.02	-0.05	0.02	16	57%	-0.01	4	-0.08	3	67%	-0.01

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Monty Williams	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.17	0.02	0.04	8	100%	0.14	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.02	-0.01	17	65%	0.13	2	-0.04	12	100%	0.06
Troy Hudson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.08	0.01	0.02	17	63%	0.10	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.01
Dee Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.04	0.04	-0.07	7	36%	0.07	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pat Garrity	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.13	0.01	0.10	13	69%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew DeClercq	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.05	1	100%	0.03	3	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Ewing	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	2	70%	0.01	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Steven Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Horace Grant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	5	58%	0.01	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.02
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	0.01	6	67%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Don Reid	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	0.00	-0.03	4	25%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jud Buechler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	3	12%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.0	1.8	30.4	17.0	29.1	2.0	26.4	133.7
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +24.3%

ORL +12.1%

DEN -25.4%

ORL +38.7%

ORL +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	ORL	NBA	DEN	ORL	NBA
this game	14.7	12.7	15.6	97.1	118.1	102.3
season	16.1	14.6		99.7	104.6
opponent	15.8	15.2		103.3	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.7	13.6	12.7	17.5	14.7
ORL	11.0	13.1	12.6	14.6	12.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zendon Hamilton	5	5	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-22	22	15.2	14.7	0.52	13.0	12.7	0.29
Juwan Howard	69	68	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	0.11	-7	-15	8	14.6	14.8	-0.20	12.2	13.6	-1.43
James Posey	32	31	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.02	-3	-19	16	13.5	15.2	-1.78	11.9	13.1	-1.16
Ryan Bowen	27	27	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.02	-5	-17	12	14.9	14.6	0.25	14.3	12.2	2.12
Carlos Arroyo	58	56	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.13	0	-22	22	14.2	15.4	-1.19	14.0	11.3	2.66
Antonio McDyess	57	58	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.10	-5	-17	12	14.8	14.6	0.22	12.9	12.5	0.35
Voshon Lenard	44	45	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	0.12	-13	-9	-4	15.4	14.2	1.21	13.4	12.2	1.26
Mengke Bateer	41	40	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.03	-10	-12	2	13.9	15.2	-1.40	12.3	13.0	-0.60
George McCloud	65	67	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.21	-17	-5	-12	14.4	15.1	-0.72	12.0	14.0	-2.00
Donnell Harvey	46	46	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	0.19	-17	-5	-12	15.7	14.0	1.69	13.9	11.8	2.08
Calbert Cheaney	41	43	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	0.19	-18	-4	-14	15.5	14.2	1.28	12.1	13.1	-0.99
Tim Hardaway	40	39	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	0.09	-15	-7	-8	14.9	14.6	0.32	11.2	13.6	-2.46

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Pat Garrity	65	61	0.55	-0.05	0.61	-0.21	26	-4	30	13.0	12.2	0.81	15.7	13.3	2.43
Monty Williams	43	42	0.49	0.01	0.47	-0.16	22	0	22	12.3	13.0	-0.64	16.9	13.2	3.71
Tracy McGrady	86	85	0.47	0.03	0.44	-0.06	18	4	14	12.6	13.3	-0.66	14.7	14.5	0.19
Darrell Armstrong	68	64	0.43	0.07	0.35	-0.13	19	3	16	12.3	13.4	-1.09	14.9	14.4	0.56
Horace Grant	55	54	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.18	15	7	8	12.3	13.2	-0.91	14.5	14.9	-0.46
Dee Brown	34	37	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.08	9	13	-4	13.1	12.5	0.54	14.7	14.7	0.04
Troy Hudson	59	60	0.16	0.34	-0.18	-0.13	10	12	-2	12.6	12.9	-0.30	13.6	16.1	-2.50
Andrew DeClercq	30	31	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.02	2	20	-18	14.3	12.1	2.16	14.8	14.7	0.10
Patrick Ewing	25	27	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.05	0	22	-22	12.8	12.7	0.10	14.8	14.7	0.10
Don Reid	29	32	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.04	-1	23	-24	11.4	13.2	-1.86	12.9	15.5	-2.54
Steven Hunter	5	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	22	-22	13.0	12.7	0.29	15.2	14.7	0.52
Jud Buechler	26	27	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	0.11	-10	32	-42	14.3	12.2	2.11	13.0	15.3	-2.34

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.62,0.59,0.61,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.6,0.65,0.74,0.62,0.69,0.65,0.63,0.65,0.66,0.71,0.67,0.72,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.69,0.85,0.89,0.93,0.87,0.83,0.76,0.79,0.86,0.79,0.87,0.9,0.92,0.89,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 88, SAC 94	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.61,0.63,0.63,0.59,0.61,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.66,0.68,0.68,0.68,0.62,0.67,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.74,0.82,0.82,0.85,0.88,0.84,0.87,0.84,0.83,0.87,0.85,0.92,0.95,0.93,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.93,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	95.7%
GSW 93, MIA 104	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.54,0.61,0.61,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.68,0.69,0.65,0.7,0.73,0.78,0.76,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.69,0.72,0.83,0.89,0.88,0.87,0.83,0.87,0.85,0.83,0.9,0.92,0.95,0.96,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.5%
MEM 103, PHX 114	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.6,0.65,0.71,0.72,0.72,0.66,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.61,0.66,0.69,0.64,0.67,0.61,0.75,0.69,0.69,0.78,0.89,0.88,0.87,0.83,0.81,0.79,0.71,0.82,0.85,0.85,0.9,0.91,0.91,0.92,0.94,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	95.1%