NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	93		Excitement	3.9 [1024]		MVP	Eddie Jones (MIA): +18.6%
Miami Heat	104		Comeback	1.1 [1164]		LVP	Caron Butler (MIA): -15.7%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brian Cardinal	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.01	-0.03	6	67%	0.05	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jason Richardson	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	-0.00	-0.03	13	59%	0.06	2	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Erick Dampier	0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	-0.01	0.01	6	83%	0.07	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.02
Clifford Robinson	0.01	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.01	5	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mickael Pietrus	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Troy Murphy	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.02	5	54%	-0.01	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Calbert Cheaney	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.08	0.00	-0.05	8	25%	-0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	-0.05	0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	12	59%	0.03	5	-0.08	5	80%	-0.00
Speedy Claxton	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	4	58%	0.00	4	-0.07	4	75%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.05	-0.02	0.04	14	42%	-0.09	1	-0.02	3	67%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.18	0.03	0.02	10	105%	0.22	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.16	0.01	0.05	16	75%	0.14	1	-0.02	12	83%	0.01
Brian Grant	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.02	0.02	-0.05	12	50%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.01	-0.02	13	58%	0.08	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Loren Woods	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.02	3	67%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	2	67%	0.01	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
John Wallace	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lamar Odom	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.12	0.00	-0.09	11	50%	0.05	7	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Caron Butler	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.16	-0.02	-0.03	12	17%	-0.12	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.4	2.4	29.0	14.8	24.0	2.5	28.2	122.4
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +44.9%

GSW -10.7%

MIA +5.8%

MIA +9.2%

MIA +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	MIA	NBA	GSW	MIA	NBA
this game	14.2	16.8	15.7	100.0	111.8	100.5
season	16.1	16.2		100.8	99.3
opponent	15.9	15.3		98.8	101.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	14.1	13.3	14.6	14.9	14.2
MIA	13.6	17.2	18.1	18.7	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mickael Pietrus	7	6	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-15	19	12.1	14.4	-2.23	9.7	17.3	-7.59
Troy Murphy	24	24	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.17	3	-14	17	13.8	14.3	-0.50	16.2	16.9	-0.69
Brian Cardinal	38	38	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.01	-4	-7	3	14.5	14.0	0.54	17.8	16.0	1.82
Calbert Cheaney	45	45	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.13	-1	-10	9	13.7	14.6	-0.91	18.2	15.5	2.70
Speedy Claxton	41	39	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.16	-1	-10	9	15.0	13.6	1.34	18.1	15.8	2.26
Jason Richardson	66	67	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.08	-7	-4	-3	14.2	14.2	-0.03	16.3	17.9	-1.61
Nick Van Exel	68	69	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.03	-12	1	-13	14.5	13.4	1.05	17.0	16.0	1.03
Clifford Robinson	45	45	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.01	-13	2	-15	14.2	14.2	-0.01	16.0	17.5	-1.52
Erick Dampier	72	73	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.07	-12	1	-13	14.4	13.7	0.69	17.4	14.3	3.14
Mike Dunleavy	59	59	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.14	-12	1	-13	13.7	15.0	-1.30	15.0	19.8	-4.73

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwyane Wade	78	78	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.10	13	-2	15	16.1	20.0	-3.86	14.1	14.8	-0.71
Caron Butler	57	59	0.40	0.10	0.30	-0.07	16	-5	21	16.2	17.6	-1.34	14.5	13.7	0.74
Eddie Jones	76	74	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.21	4	7	-3	16.2	19.2	-3.02	14.0	14.9	-0.87
Lamar Odom	72	72	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.13	6	5	1	16.3	18.4	-2.09	14.1	14.6	-0.54
Brian Grant	58	57	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.21	3	8	-5	15.2	19.4	-4.18	13.6	15.1	-1.48
Rafer Alston	58	58	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.20	3	8	-5	18.1	14.6	3.51	14.4	13.9	0.42
Udonis Haslem	30	31	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.15	2	9	-7	19.9	15.3	4.63	14.4	14.1	0.27
Loren Woods	35	36	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.04	8	3	5	19.4	15.2	4.18	15.1	13.6	1.48
John Wallace	1	0	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.00	0	11	-11	0.0	16.9	-16.95	0.0	14.2	-14.20

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.54,0.61,0.61,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.68,0.69,0.65,0.7,0.73,0.78,0.76,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.69,0.72,0.83,0.89,0.88,0.87,0.83,0.87,0.85,0.83,0.9,0.92,0.95,0.96,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 98, SAS 109	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.6,0.63,0.59,0.53,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.75,0.69,0.71,0.69,0.7,0.77,0.76,0.72,0.67,0.67,0.7,0.74,0.69,0.75,0.75,0.81,0.92,0.9,0.94,0.89,0.86,0.9,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.94,0.98,0.95,0.98,1,1,1,1	96.0%
LAL 68, DET 88	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.59,0.59,0.53,0.57,0.64,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.74,0.76,0.77,0.74,0.74,0.79,0.71,0.74,0.7,0.67,0.7,0.66,0.74,0.82,0.85,0.88,0.89,0.88,0.95,0.92,0.9,0.89,0.92,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.0%
DEN 103, BOS 111	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.59,0.61,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.73,0.71,0.75,0.77,0.8,0.72,0.69,0.73,0.78,0.69,0.66,0.83,0.83,0.86,0.84,0.85,0.82,0.83,0.74,0.82,0.96,0.98,1,0.99,1,1,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	95.9%