NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	103		Excitement	4.7 [881]		MVP	Avery Bradley (BOS): +12.0%
Boston Celtics	111		Comeback	1.0 [1221]		LVP	Nikola Jokic (DEN): -10.2%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Will Barton	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.13	0.01	0.11	12	77%	0.08	3	-0.05	6	67%	-0.01
Danilo Gallinari	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.09	-0.03	0.03	16	59%	0.06	1	-0.03	7	86%	0.02
Kenneth Faried	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	0.00	0.02	13	54%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Gary Harris	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.07	-0.01	0.04	7	75%	0.07	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.02
JJ Hickson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sean Kilpatrick	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Randy Foye	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	9	35%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Darrell Arthur	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jusuf Nurkic	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	5	15%	-0.05	1	-0.02	3	0%	-0.06
Emmanuel Mudiay	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.06	-0.04	-0.00	10	54%	0.03	5	-0.12	4	100%	0.02
Nikola Jokic	-0.10	0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.12	-0.01	-0.03	6	21%	-0.05	3	-0.05	2	50%	-0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Avery Bradley	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.16	-0.01	0.03	20	67%	0.12	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.01	0.01	14	55%	0.08	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	-0.02	7	56%	0.04	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00
Jae Crowder	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	13	43%	0.03	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Evan Turner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	11	64%	0.05	3	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Thomas	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.05	0.03	-0.02	13	50%	0.08	4	-0.08	6	83%	0.01
Jonas Jerebko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	0.02	3	56%	0.01	1	-0.03	3	33%	-0.01
Marcus Smart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	5	29%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Tyler Zeller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jared Sullinger	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	8	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	2.7	29.1	15.4	29.7	2.4	30.5	132.1
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +11.2%

BOS +10.2%

BOS +2.2%

BOS +26.1%

BOS +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	BOS	NBA	DEN	BOS	NBA
this game	13.9	13.9	14.9	99.0	107.8	105.1
season	14.9	13.9		104.3	104.5
opponent	15.0	14.9		101.9	107.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	17.1	12.3	13.4	13.1	13.9
BOS	13.4	13.8	13.3	15.2	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
JJ Hickson	2	2	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-10	12	5.0	14.1	-9.07	19.5	13.8	5.68
Kenneth Faried	57	57	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.35	9	-17	26	15.4	12.0	3.42	14.3	13.5	0.82
Darrell Arthur	21	22	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.03	-5	-3	-2	12.0	14.4	-2.31	14.1	13.9	0.20
Sean Kilpatrick	34	35	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.21	2	-10	12	11.6	15.0	-3.43	15.4	13.2	2.22
Mike Miller	36	36	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.09	-4	-4	0	12.8	14.5	-1.71	13.0	14.4	-1.39
Jusuf Nurkic	29	26	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	0.15	-13	5	-18	12.7	14.4	-1.67	13.2	14.2	-0.94
Emmanuel Mudiay	54	54	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.04	-7	-1	-6	15.4	12.3	3.15	13.3	14.6	-1.34
Nikola Jokic	40	40	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.04	-7	-1	-6	15.6	12.8	2.73	14.2	13.7	0.52
Randy Foye	50	49	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.23	-1	-7	6	12.3	15.4	-3.15	14.6	13.3	1.34
Danilo Gallinari	67	66	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.07	-7	-1	-6	15.3	11.4	3.95	13.3	15.1	-1.79
Gary Harris	70	70	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.25	-2	-6	4	14.5	12.7	1.77	13.7	14.4	-0.72
Will Barton	60	58	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.17	-7	-1	-6	12.6	15.7	-3.14	14.1	13.7	0.39

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marcus Smart	63	64	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.13	11	-3	14	13.8	14.1	-0.36	12.2	16.5	-4.27
Evan Turner	69	69	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.23	6	2	4	14.0	13.9	0.07	12.3	16.9	-4.60
Kelly Olynyk	40	41	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.04	12	-4	16	14.6	13.5	1.09	11.6	15.4	-3.85
Jae Crowder	66	66	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.12	9	-1	10	13.5	14.7	-1.16	14.9	12.1	2.82
Isaiah Thomas	64	63	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.08	6	2	4	13.2	15.1	-1.80	15.4	11.5	3.93
Amir Johnson	61	62	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.08	5	3	2	13.5	14.6	-1.08	15.4	11.6	3.82
Avery Bradley	81	82	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.33	-4	12	-16	14.5	12.0	2.46	14.3	12.3	2.00
Jonas Jerebko	27	29	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.16	-3	11	-14	13.5	14.1	-0.56	12.0	14.6	-2.58
Tyler Zeller	10	9	0.05	0.45	-0.41	-0.01	2	6	-4	16.7	13.6	3.07	11.1	14.2	-3.05
Jared Sullinger	34	35	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.16	-4	12	-16	14.5	13.7	0.85	16.5	12.6	3.91

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.59,0.61,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.73,0.71,0.75,0.77,0.8,0.72,0.69,0.73,0.78,0.69,0.66,0.83,0.83,0.86,0.84,0.85,0.82,0.83,0.74,0.82,0.96,0.98,1,0.99,1,1,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 93, MIA 104	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.54,0.61,0.61,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.68,0.69,0.65,0.7,0.73,0.78,0.76,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.69,0.72,0.83,0.89,0.88,0.87,0.83,0.87,0.85,0.83,0.9,0.92,0.95,0.96,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.9%
WAS 94, DET 99	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.65,0.64,0.71,0.67,0.69,0.76,0.78,0.73,0.73,0.78,0.79,0.75,0.8,0.79,0.77,0.82,0.83,0.81,0.82,0.9,0.81,0.77,0.77,0.82,0.92,0.89,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.98,1	95.6%
WAS 94, MIA 105	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.62,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.73,0.76,0.75,0.69,0.66,0.72,0.7,0.73,0.77,0.72,0.83,0.83,0.86,0.87,0.93,0.89,0.88,0.83,0.92,0.9,0.96,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.1%