NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	94		Excitement	4.2 [997]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +12.2%
Miami Heat	105		Comeback	1.2 [1268]		LVP	Kirk Hinrich (WAS): -10.1%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gilbert Arenas	0.10	0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.05	0.02	-0.03	21	52%	0.11	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
JaVale McGee	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.02	7	67%	0.08	2	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Andray Blatche	0.00	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.02	0.00	19	50%	0.06	2	-0.06	14	71%	-0.01
Hilton Armstrong	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Seraphin	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trevor Booker	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.02	-0.00	0.06	4	75%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Gee	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.01	-0.00	0.05	4	58%	-0.02	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Nick Young	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	15	36%	-0.05	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.00
Cartier Martin	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.02	0.02	4	50%	-0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.01	-0.01	7	31%	-0.03	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.07,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.10	0.02	-0.01	17	59%	0.15	2	-0.03	10	100%	0.04
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.01	3	60%	0.02	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	0.00	0.02	5	64%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Chris Bosh	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.04	0.03	-0.03	14	48%	0.09	4	-0.06	14	71%	-0.02
LeBron James	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.00	18	64%	0.16	7	-0.14	11	82%	0.01
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	75%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.05	8	31%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.01	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eddie House	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.0	2.6	34.0	15.6	37.0	0.8	35.0	152.0
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +27.8%

MIA +15.3%

MIA +7.7%

WAS -2.4%

MIA +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	MIA	NBA	WAS	MIA	NBA
this game	15.3	14.7	15.5	98.9	108.2	105.7
season	15.1	16.0		100.9	109.0
opponent	15.6	15.2		102.3	108.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	16.1	16.0	15.9	13.2	15.3
MIA	12.7	12.3	16.1	18.1	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kevin Seraphin	14	14	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.21	6	-17	23	11.6	16.0	-4.40	19.3	13.9	5.38
Alonzo Gee	48	51	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.11	-6	-5	-1	15.7	15.0	0.73	14.2	15.2	-0.94
Trevor Booker	15	16	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.20	4	-15	19	12.5	15.9	-3.40	17.0	14.2	2.78
Hilton Armstrong	34	34	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.04	-5	-6	1	14.6	15.7	-1.10	14.8	14.6	0.22
Cartier Martin	20	21	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.18	-1	-10	9	13.8	15.7	-1.87	14.5	14.7	-0.26
JaVale McGee	52	55	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.05	-11	0	-11	16.1	14.3	1.79	13.6	16.1	-2.54
Nick Young	65	65	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.23	-5	-6	1	15.2	15.5	-0.30	15.0	14.0	1.06
Gilbert Arenas	82	83	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.09	-10	-1	-9	15.3	15.4	-0.07	14.6	15.2	-0.62
Andray Blatche	75	75	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	0.04	-16	5	-21	16.4	11.4	4.91	14.1	16.8	-2.71
Kirk Hinrich	70	71	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.15	-11	0	-11	15.6	14.6	1.04	14.8	14.2	0.61

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Bosh	75	74	0.42	0.08	0.34	-0.05	16	-5	21	14.7	14.6	0.12	15.4	15.1	0.30
James Jones	49	48	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.07	12	-1	13	15.2	14.1	1.10	15.4	15.3	0.10
Mario Chalmers	43	41	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.10	8	3	5	16.7	13.0	3.71	14.7	15.8	-1.13
LeBron James	76	75	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.21	3	8	-5	14.7	14.8	-0.10	15.7	13.8	1.93
Dwyane Wade	72	71	0.29	0.21	0.07	-0.09	13	-2	15	13.7	17.5	-3.77	15.3	15.4	-0.07
Joel Anthony	47	48	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.08	5	6	-1	14.5	14.9	-0.41	15.1	15.6	-0.45
Zydrunas Ilgauskas	26	25	0.18	0.32	-0.13	-0.05	8	3	5	14.1	14.9	-0.77	16.3	15.0	1.29
Carlos Arroyo	51	50	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.25	-3	14	-17	13.8	15.6	-1.81	15.2	15.4	-0.22
Erick Dampier	24	22	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.15	-2	13	-15	15.7	14.3	1.37	14.7	15.5	-0.78
Juwan Howard	19	18	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.05	1	10	-9	13.6	14.9	-1.37	16.8	15.0	1.79
Eddie House	3	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.18	-6	17	-23	21.0	14.5	6.52	5.0	15.7	-10.66

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.62,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.65,0.73,0.76,0.75,0.69,0.66,0.72,0.7,0.73,0.77,0.72,0.83,0.83,0.86,0.87,0.93,0.89,0.88,0.83,0.92,0.9,0.96,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 73, NYK 87	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.69,0.75,0.78,0.7,0.7,0.76,0.74,0.75,0.62,0.7,0.74,0.72,0.78,0.83,0.86,0.84,0.9,0.91,0.91,0.92,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.98,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.8%
GSW 113, LAL 130	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.59,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.69,0.67,0.76,0.84,0.74,0.66,0.64,0.73,0.7,0.81,0.8,0.8,0.81,0.88,0.91,0.93,0.92,0.94,0.91,0.93,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.7%
MEM 79, IND 95	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.65,0.66,0.62,0.67,0.71,0.69,0.72,0.75,0.69,0.64,0.67,0.7,0.7,0.79,0.77,0.8,0.83,0.83,0.92,0.9,0.92,0.88,0.9,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.7%