NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	76		Excitement	6.8 [458]		MVP	Hanno Mottola (ATL): +20.5%
Miami Heat	73		Comeback	1.7 [173]		LVP	Brian Grant (MIA): -16.3%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hanno Mottola	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.18,0.21	0.07	0.13	0.00	5	83%	0.21	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Jacque Vaughn	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0	-0.02	0.02	0.00	4	50%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Mark Strickland	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cal Bowdler	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ira Newble	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	0.00	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DerMarr Johnson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	9	43%	-0.02	1	-0.03	3	33%	-0.03
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	-0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.08,-0.11,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	24	58%	0.13	6	-0.19	11	91%	0.04
Dion Glover	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Jason Terry	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.12	-0.11	-0.02	-0.01	14	43%	-0.05	3	-0.07	9	89%	0.06

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rod Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	13	62%	0.11	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	55%	0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.03
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	-0.00	8	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.05
Vladimir Stepania	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.02	0.00	6	17%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	0.01	15	52%	-0.02	3	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Kendall Gill	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.04	-0.02	7	39%	-0.05	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.00
Jim Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.13	-0.13	-0.11	-0.03	-0.01	8	12%	-0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Brian Grant	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.08	-0.08	0.00	11	42%	-0.05	3	-0.11	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.7	1.7	30.1	15.4	22.4	2.5	40.2	139.1
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +18.6%

ATL +31.8%

MIA -2.5%

MIA -4.7%

ATL +6.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	MIA	NBA	ATL	MIA	NBA
this game	18.1	15.7	15.6	90.5	83.9	102.3
season	15.5	16.5		99.7	96.6
opponent	15.8	15.2		98.2	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	18.1	17.4	17.8	18.9	18.1
MIA	13.2	17.7	15.7	16.2	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	66	68	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.42	6	-3	9	18.1	18.1	-0.05	15.5	16.1	-0.58
Jason Terry	79	81	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.38	7	-4	11	17.9	20.6	-2.69	15.6	16.5	-0.91
Jacque Vaughn	27	29	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.39	2	1	1	18.2	18.0	0.22	16.0	15.5	0.57
Hanno Mottola	46	49	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.25	5	-2	7	18.1	18.0	0.13	16.6	14.5	2.05
Ira Newble	59	61	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.50	-4	7	-11	18.2	17.7	0.56	15.7	15.7	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	53	53	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.25	-1	4	-5	18.3	17.7	0.52	15.6	15.7	-0.08
DerMarr Johnson	41	41	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.03	5	-2	7	18.2	17.9	0.29	15.7	15.6	0.05
Mark Strickland	8	9	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	-0.01	-1	4	-5	16.2	18.3	-2.01	13.4	15.9	-2.47
Cal Bowdler	2	3	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	-0.01	-2	5	-7	19.0	18.0	0.95	9.7	15.9	-6.20
Dion Glover	19	20	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	-0.08	-4	7	-11	18.4	18.0	0.45	13.3	16.3	-2.99

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vladimir Stepania	23	21	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.04	1	-4	5	16.7	15.3	1.41	19.5	17.6	1.87
LaPhonso Ellis	22	18	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.01	-4	1	-5	15.0	15.9	-0.82	18.5	18.0	0.55
Eddie Jones	74	72	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.43	8	-11	19	15.0	19.4	-4.38	18.6	14.7	3.88
Rod Strickland	63	62	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.36	5	-8	13	15.1	17.2	-2.09	18.5	17.0	1.51
Kendall Gill	51	51	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.07	-7	4	-11	15.7	15.5	0.22	17.6	18.8	-1.18
Brian Grant	63	63	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.31	1	-4	5	16.0	14.9	1.08	17.8	19.0	-1.24
Eddie House	26	24	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.15	-8	5	-13	16.2	15.4	0.82	15.8	19.0	-3.13
Jim Jackson	50	45	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.26	-7	4	-11	16.2	14.9	1.33	17.7	18.5	-0.78
Alonzo Mourning	63	64	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.42	-4	1	-5	15.8	15.3	0.44	18.2	17.5	0.75

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.53,0.52,0.53,0.5,0.53,0.58,0.51,0.44,0.47,0.35,0.36,0.39,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.34,0.33,0.38,0.4,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.46,0.3,0.38,0.25,0.12,0.14,0.15,0.22,0.14,0.21,0.11,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 99, SAC 89	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.56,0.6,0.59,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.49,0.46,0.55,0.45,0.39,0.42,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.37,0.33,0.36,0.26,0.22,0.25,0.17,0.19,0.1,0.2,0.22,0.19,0.22,0.06,0,0	93.1%
MIL 101, BOS 94	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.53,0.6,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.32,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.5,0.41,0.4,0.39,0.52,0.39,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.37,0.28,0.38,0.26,0.21,0.28,0.27,0.26,0.29,0.12,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0	92.7%
PHX 88, DET 86	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.55,0.47,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.41,0.42,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.43,0.45,0.33,0.39,0.29,0.28,0.29,0.31,0.41,0.44,0.52,0.46,0.3,0.38,0.33,0.27,0.26,0.16,0.13,0.19,0.05,0.03,0.16,0	92.6%