NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	101		Excitement	6.7 [454]		MVP	Lindsey Hunter (MIL): +20.2%
Boston Celtics	94		Comeback	1.7 [648]		LVP	Glenn Robinson (MIL): -20.0%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lindsey Hunter	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.14,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.10	0.11	0.01	8	78%	0.20	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Tim Thomas	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.2	0.08	0.09	-0.02	13	65%	0.20	0	0.00	8	62%	-0.01
Sam Cassell	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	20	55%	0.05	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Scott Williams	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Darvin Ham	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	3	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Jason Caffey	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	9	45%	-0.01	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Ray Allen	-0.19	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.2,-0.22,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.12	-0.05	0.02	10	42%	-0.12	2	-0.06	13	85%	0.04
Glenn Robinson	-0.20	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.22	-0.04	-0.06	17	29%	-0.05	6	-0.15	0	0%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Carr	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.01	-0.05	7	65%	0.12	2	-0.06	3	67%	-0.00
Vitaly Potapenko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.00	4	60%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Antoine Walker	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.00	0.02	28	60%	0.18	6	-0.17	4	25%	-0.04
Walter McCarty	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Milt Palacio	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.03	0.00	6	50%	0.05	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.03
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.08	-0.01	0.09	23	58%	-0.00	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.02
Mark Blount	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Randy Brown	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Bryant Stith	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Eric Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	4	27%	-0.09	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	2.4	30.1	14.8	28.2	2.3	34.6	138.5
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +4.3%

MIL +19.4%

MIL +26.4%

MIL +11.6%

BOS -11.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	BOS	NBA	MIL	BOS	NBA
this game	14.6	14.9	15.5	102.0	97.9	100.9
season	14.9	15.1		105.9	99.7
opponent	15.4	15.8		101.8	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	13.3	14.8	14.2	16.3	14.6
BOS	14.3	15.9	14.6	15.0	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Thomas	64	61	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.27	12	-5	17	14.1	15.6	-1.49	15.4	14.2	1.16
Ervin Johnson	47	45	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.19	11	-4	15	15.7	13.6	2.13	15.4	14.6	0.79
Ray Allen	72	72	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.24	7	0	7	14.9	13.9	0.99	14.5	16.4	-1.92
Sam Cassell	85	82	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.31	3	4	-1	14.0	18.5	-4.54	14.8	15.7	-0.91
Lindsey Hunter	44	42	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.04	10	-3	13	15.4	13.9	1.49	14.7	15.1	-0.35
Scott Williams	20	22	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.04	10	-3	13	16.3	14.2	2.19	16.0	14.6	1.44
Glenn Robinson	81	77	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.22	-4	11	-15	14.7	14.3	0.33	14.7	15.9	-1.19
Jason Caffey	47	46	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.09	-5	12	-17	13.9	15.2	-1.36	15.3	14.6	0.62
Darvin Ham	35	33	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	0.08	-9	16	-25	13.9	15.0	-1.16	14.6	15.1	-0.55

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vitaly Potapenko	42	43	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.06	4	-11	15	15.2	14.7	0.45	14.8	14.4	0.37
Walter McCarty	7	7	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.09	3	-10	13	9.3	15.4	-6.10	10.9	14.9	-4.03
Bryant Stith	22	23	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.06	0	-7	7	14.5	15.1	-0.51	13.8	14.8	-1.02
Chris Carr	42	44	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.05	-3	-4	1	14.8	15.1	-0.27	13.6	15.4	-1.75
Milt Palacio	61	64	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.30	2	-9	11	14.6	15.5	-0.86	14.7	14.3	0.41
Randy Brown	35	35	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	0.01	-9	2	-11	15.5	14.6	0.86	14.3	14.7	-0.41
Eric Williams	51	54	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.18	-6	-1	-5	15.6	14.2	1.35	14.6	14.6	0.09
Antoine Walker	84	85	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.30	-6	-1	-5	14.4	18.4	-3.98	15.0	12.4	2.54
Paul Pierce	89	91	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.30	-6	-1	-5	15.2	11.4	3.78	14.9	11.1	3.79
Mark Blount	47	49	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.15	-14	7	-21	15.6	14.3	1.21	15.0	14.3	0.70

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.53,0.6,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.4,0.32,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.5,0.41,0.4,0.39,0.52,0.39,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.37,0.28,0.38,0.26,0.21,0.28,0.27,0.26,0.29,0.12,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 86, POR 76	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.33,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.28,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.46,0.4,0.45,0.36,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.28,0.34,0.3,0.25,0.34,0.38,0.3,0.29,0.32,0.26,0.15,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0	93.0%
NJN 86, MIA 74	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.59,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.55,0.47,0.4,0.35,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.27,0.3,0.49,0.44,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.48,0.41,0.48,0.4,0.44,0.38,0.43,0.34,0.33,0.28,0.26,0.24,0.1,0.1,0.01,0,0,0	92.8%
SAC 111, ORL 102	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.39,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.56,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.44,0.51,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.41,0.34,0.39,0.55,0.48,0.42,0.35,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.32,0.19,0.19,0.26,0.2,0.23,0.21,0.15,0.22,0.1,0.03,0.06,0.01,0	92.8%