NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	86		Excitement	6.0 [601]		MVP	Voshon Lenard (MIA): +3.9%
Portland Trail Blazers	76		Comeback	1.2 [394]		LVP	Scottie Pippen (POR): -20.5%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Voshon Lenard	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.07	-0.02	0.01	6	73%	0.04	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Dan Majerle	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.02	8	42%	0.02	0	0.00	3	67%	0.00
Clar. Weatherspoon	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	4	60%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Mark Strickland	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.01	1	67%	0.00	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Duane Causwell	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Mashburn	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0	-0.06	0.03	-0.03	15	50%	0.08	4	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
P.J. Brown	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	8	62%	0.03	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Carter	-0.14	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.09	-0.05	-0.00	14	48%	-0.02	5	-0.13	1	0%	-0.02
Alonzo Mourning	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.17,-0.21,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.07	-0.09	0.02	13	53%	-0.06	4	-0.12	6	50%	-0.06

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stacey Augmon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Arvydas Sabonis	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.03	-0.02	0.02	10	60%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brian Grant	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	12	33%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Anthony	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,0,0,0,0.05,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.03	0.02	14	54%	0.03	3	-0.10	7	86%	0.03
Steven Smith	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	9	42%	-0.03	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Gary Grant	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	4	25%	-0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Detlef Schrempf	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.08,-0.13,-0.17,-0.22,-0.22,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.2	-0.20	-0.10	-0.10	-0.01	14	47%	-0.01	5	-0.19	2	100%	0.01
Scottie Pippen	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.13	-0.05	0.03	12	32%	-0.15	2	-0.05	4	25%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	1.8	29.8	14.8	23.0	1.8	32.0	126.6
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +41.7%

MIA +4.6%

POR -4.4%

MIA +11.9%

POR -4.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	POR	NBA	MIA	POR	NBA
this game	15.2	16.9	15.2	95.6	85.4	101.7
season	15.7	15.9		101.2	105.9
opponent	15.7	15.9		99.1	98.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.4	14.2	14.9	17.8	15.2
POR	16.2	16.5	18.7	16.5	16.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamal Mashburn	82	81	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.18	14	-4	18	15.5	13.0	2.46	17.4	12.1	5.29
Voshon Lenard	36	36	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.12	15	-5	20	15.7	14.9	0.80	17.5	16.6	0.93
Dan Majerle	79	78	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.18	12	-2	14	15.5	13.3	2.25	17.4	13.4	4.09
Alonzo Mourning	77	76	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.28	7	3	4	15.0	16.7	-1.69	16.6	19.1	-2.50
P.J. Brown	73	73	0.45	0.06	0.39	0.15	10	0	10	14.5	18.3	-3.76	16.7	18.0	-1.29
Clar. Weatherspoon	26	26	0.15	0.35	-0.21	-0.03	6	4	2	16.8	14.6	2.14	18.8	16.2	2.58
Mark Strickland	11	11	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	0.03	-2	12	-14	13.3	15.5	-2.25	13.4	17.4	-4.09
Duane Causwell	4	3	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	0.01	-3	13	-16	23.0	14.9	8.12	16.0	17.0	-0.98
Anthony Carter	62	61	-0.14	0.64	-0.79	0.12	-9	19	-28	14.7	16.5	-1.82	16.0	19.0	-3.05

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Stacey Augmon	14	13	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.10	0	-10	10	17.1	16.9	0.24	19.0	14.6	4.39
Brian Grant	33	34	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.09	-9	-1	-8	17.6	16.5	1.10	14.9	15.4	-0.53
Gary Grant	15	15	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.01	-7	-3	-4	18.8	16.6	2.23	15.7	15.2	0.51
Greg Anthony	71	72	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.19	-2	-8	6	16.3	19.6	-3.27	15.1	16.0	-0.94
Arvydas Sabonis	68	66	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.22	-1	-9	8	16.6	18.0	-1.38	14.8	16.3	-1.48
Steven Smith	66	68	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.09	-6	-4	-2	16.9	17.2	-0.31	14.8	16.6	-1.78
Scottie Pippen	57	57	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.18	-5	-5	0	16.5	17.7	-1.26	15.3	15.1	0.19
Detlef Schrempf	47	49	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.13	-11	1	-12	17.9	15.9	2.01	16.0	14.4	1.61
Rasheed Wallace	74	76	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.20	-9	-1	-8	17.0	16.8	0.17	15.1	16.3	-1.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.33,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.28,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.46,0.4,0.45,0.36,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.28,0.34,0.3,0.25,0.34,0.38,0.3,0.29,0.32,0.26,0.15,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 103, LAC 94	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.59,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.31,0.31,0.39,0.42,0.35,0.28,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.31,0.24,0.23,0.21,0.3,0.26,0.2,0.17,0.15,0.13,0.05,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0	93.9%
SAC 114, GSW 99	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.37,0.4,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.35,0.39,0.41,0.42,0.39,0.46,0.37,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.52,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.3,0.33,0.25,0.26,0.22,0.29,0.38,0.32,0.26,0.19,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0	93.9%
TOR 90, CHI 80	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.41,0.39,0.41,0.46,0.46,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.33,0.36,0.32,0.35,0.31,0.37,0.3,0.18,0.26,0.3,0.21,0.13,0.19,0.2,0.09,0.13,0.14,0.07,0.03,0.02,0	93.8%