NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	100		Excitement	10.3 [35]		MVP	Eddie Jones (MIA): +50.1%
Denver Nuggets	94		Comeback	5.5 [199]		LVP	Jim Jackson (MIA): -20.8%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Jones	0.50	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.23,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.54,0.48,0.41,0.53,0.53,0.5	0.16	0.36	0.02	24	66%	0.53	1	-0.03	8	100%	0.10
Kendall Gill	0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12	0.06	0.07	0.01	10	60%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Gatling	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.05	-0.00	6	57%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
LaPhonso Ellis	0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.04,0.04	-0.02	0.07	0.01	12	50%	0.09	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Vladimir Stepania	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Eddie House	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	12	33%	-0.10	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Rod Strickland	-0.15	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.14	-0.02	-0.01	6	23%	-0.04	4	-0.11	1	100%	0.00
Brian Grant	-0.17	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.17,-0.17	-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	10	44%	0.05	3	-0.21	5	100%	0.05
Jim Jackson	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.08	-0.13	-0.00	9	33%	-0.08	2	-0.13	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.03,0.22,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.15	0.03	0.01	24	62%	0.20	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.02,-0.16,-0.16,0.11,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.12	0.12	-0.03	14	50%	0.36	7	-0.34	2	100%	0.04
George McCloud	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	43%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Calbert Cheaney	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	0.02	11	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.04
Zendon Hamilton	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	4	79%	0.06	4	-0.09	6	50%	-0.04
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.08,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	3	56%	-0.04	1	-0.03	10	70%	-0.02
Ryan Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.13,-0.13	-0.14	-0.04	-0.10	-0.00	7	44%	-0.00	1	-0.13	2	50%	-0.06
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19	-0.19	-0.10	-0.11	-0.02	13	27%	-0.17	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	20.9	1.8	26.4	15.7	28.2	2.5	30.3	2.3	11.5	139.5
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	1.7	16.7	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +1.8%

MIA +49.1%

DEN -8.0%

MIA +9.4%

DEN -2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DEN	NBA	MIA	DEN	NBA
this game	17.4	16.0	15.6	106.4	97.9	102.3
season	16.5	16.1		96.6	99.7
opponent	15.2	15.8		105.9	98.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
MIA	16.9	19.9	16.3	18.0	15.4	17.4
DEN	16.6	15.3	13.7	19.9	14.6	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LaPhonso Ellis	68	71	0.85	-0.35	1.21	0.47	13	-7	20	16.9	18.9	-2.04	15.8	16.7	-0.86
Eddie House	37	37	0.79	-0.29	1.07	0.90	-4	10	-14	19.0	16.4	2.61	16.1	16.0	0.15
Brian Grant	79	81	0.78	-0.28	1.06	0.34	15	-9	24	17.1	19.3	-2.17	16.2	15.1	1.08
Eddie Jones	85	87	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.27	11	-5	16	17.3	18.9	-1.59	16.1	15.3	0.78
Jim Jackson	65	65	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.33	4	2	2	17.5	17.4	0.10	16.1	15.9	0.16
Rod Strickland	52	55	0.01	0.49	-0.49	-0.32	11	-5	16	17.2	17.8	-0.66	16.3	15.7	0.63
Vladimir Stepania	15	15	-0.28	0.78	-1.06	-0.02	-9	15	-24	19.3	17.1	2.17	15.1	16.2	-1.08
Kendall Gill	43	44	-0.32	0.82	-1.15	-0.21	-4	10	-14	16.7	18.1	-1.38	15.4	16.6	-1.17
Chris Gatling	26	25	-0.35	0.85	-1.21	-0.15	-7	13	-20	18.9	16.9	2.04	16.7	15.8	0.86

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zendon Hamilton	54	53	0.26	-0.76	1.03	0.12	5	-11	16	16.1	16.0	0.03	17.8	17.0	0.88
Voshon Lenard	42	44	0.02	-0.52	0.54	0.08	-2	-4	2	17.3	15.1	2.17	18.4	16.6	1.77
Ryan Bowen	55	55	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.35	6	-12	18	16.4	15.6	0.80	17.4	17.5	-0.03
George McCloud	15	14	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.02	-7	1	-8	15.4	16.2	-0.76	20.4	16.9	3.42
Avery Johnson	32	34	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.25	-1	-5	4	16.6	15.8	0.78	19.1	16.5	2.66
Calbert Cheaney	79	76	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.25	-3	-3	0	15.5	18.6	-3.09	16.5	21.3	-4.81
James Posey	38	35	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.19	-10	4	-14	15.6	16.3	-0.72	16.8	17.8	-0.98
Nick Van Exel	77	74	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.40	-7	1	-8	16.2	15.3	0.90	17.0	19.0	-2.04
Raef LaFrentz	88	85	-0.68	0.18	-0.85	-0.35	-11	5	-16	15.7	20.0	-4.32	17.0	21.4	-4.42

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.41,0.45,0.47,0.39,0.4,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.46,0.48,0.39,0.29,0.31,0.25,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.18,0.22,0.24,0.2,0.21,0.32,0.35,0.44,0.63,0.67,0.62,0.48,0.52,0.67,0.72,0.7,0.54,0.6,0.47,0.71,0.55,0.85,0.54,0.45,0.45,0.32,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 113, LAC 107	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.39,0.37,0.35,0.36,0.31,0.35,0.31,0.25,0.35,0.38,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.4,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.28,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.33,0.24,0.35,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.52,0.5,0.62,0.57,0.47,0.53,0.41,0.54,0.46,0.45,0.72,0.75,0.77,0.54,0.54,0.45,0.23,0.01,0	89.9%
CHI 100, DET 94	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.32,0.36,0.35,0.31,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.44,0.42,0.47,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.48,0.54,0.51,0.44,0.36,0.27,0.24,0.2,0.13,0.12,0.14,0.23,0.2,0.21,0.34,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.66,0.79,0.76,0.77,0.59,0.65,0.67,0.53,0.63,0.57,0.84,0.46,0.53,0.54,0.22,0.04,0	89.6%
DET 88, CLE 81	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.4,0.34,0.3,0.28,0.28,0.34,0.36,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.28,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.31,0.28,0.2,0.17,0.14,0.21,0.29,0.41,0.44,0.4,0.48,0.5,0.57,0.62,0.71,0.77,0.82,0.66,0.72,0.69,0.66,0.43,0.42,0.46,0.47,0.36,0.17,0.09,0	89.0%