NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	84		Excitement	7.0 [431]		MVP	Antawn Jamison (GSW): +11.3%
Miami Heat	92		Comeback	1.3 [1063]		LVP	Larry Hughes (GSW): -27.8%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antawn Jamison	0.11	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.11	0.13	0.01	0.02	18	69%	0.12	1	-0.00	9	100%	0.06
Adonal Foyle	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Gilbert Arenas	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bob Sura	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	9	60%	0.08	3	-0.11	2	50%	-0.01
Danny Fortson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.01	7	37%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Mookie Blaylock	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marc Jackson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.02	-0.00	5	20%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Troy Murphy	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	4	20%	-0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jason Richardson	-0.17	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17	-0.10	-0.08	-0.01	14	37%	-0.14	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Larry Hughes	-0.28	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.14,-0.12,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.16,-0.21,-0.28,-0.28	-0.21	-0.11	-0.04	18	34%	-0.19	4	-0.09	8	62%	-0.03

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vladimir Stepania	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	5	83%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Eddie Jones	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0	-0.00	0.03	-0.03	-0.00	16	56%	0.01	1	-0.02	7	86%	0.00
Jim Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	10	29%	-0.06	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Chris Gatling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	1	17%	-0.04	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.02
Kendall Gill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	4	25%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rod Strickland	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	0.00	-0.01	13	55%	0.05	5	-0.13	7	57%	-0.10
Brian Grant	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.10	-0.00	-0.01	6	17%	-0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Eddie House	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	9	22%	-0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.03	0.01	10	68%	0.04	6	-0.14	11	64%	-0.06
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.13	-0.13	-0.07	-0.06	0.00	5	43%	-0.05	2	-0.08	4	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	31.8	1.8	34.1	15.4	27.6	2.5	33.5	146.7
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +36.7%

GSW -14.0%

MIA +34.7%

GSW -15.4%

MIA +8.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	MIA	NBA	GSW	MIA	NBA
this game	15.6	14.4	15.6	88.4	94.8	102.3
season	14.7	16.5		100.7	96.6
opponent	15.8	15.1		98.2	106.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	15.2	17.2	14.7	15.5	15.6
MIA	12.6	13.4	15.3	16.5	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mookie Blaylock	17	20	0.07	-0.57	0.65	0.02	2	-10	12	16.6	15.4	1.17	13.0	14.7	-1.68
Gilbert Arenas	9	8	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.06	2	-10	12	16.7	15.5	1.14	13.4	14.5	-1.10
Adonal Foyle	24	25	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	0.00	-4	-4	0	14.5	16.0	-1.46	15.2	14.1	1.16
Troy Murphy	48	50	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.24	1	-9	10	15.3	16.0	-0.69	14.2	14.6	-0.37
Danny Fortson	66	66	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.16	-2	-6	4	16.4	13.9	2.55	15.8	11.4	4.35
Bob Sura	50	52	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.14	-4	-4	0	15.6	15.7	-0.11	13.6	15.2	-1.61
Antawn Jamison	79	80	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.30	-1	-7	6	15.1	18.3	-3.22	14.3	14.6	-0.32
Marc Jackson	33	33	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.06	-10	2	-12	15.9	15.5	0.47	11.3	16.0	-4.67
Jason Richardson	74	76	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.20	-9	1	-10	15.7	15.4	0.32	15.0	12.0	2.98
Larry Hughes	75	75	-0.62	0.12	-0.73	-0.18	-15	7	-22	15.6	15.8	-0.28	14.7	13.2	1.55

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rod Strickland	67	67	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.19	16	-8	24	14.5	14.2	0.31	15.3	16.4	-1.13
Alonzo Mourning	74	71	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.14	15	-7	22	14.5	14.1	0.33	15.7	15.4	0.29
Eddie Jones	80	78	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.19	8	0	8	14.3	14.6	-0.25	15.4	16.5	-1.09
LaPhonso Ellis	55	52	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.25	4	4	0	14.7	14.0	0.76	16.5	14.6	1.83
Brian Grant	44	45	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.25	1	7	-6	15.3	13.6	1.71	15.4	15.9	-0.48
Jim Jackson	58	59	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.11	3	5	-2	14.6	14.1	0.47	15.2	16.3	-1.13
Chris Gatling	16	15	0.15	0.35	-0.19	-0.02	6	2	4	11.3	15.0	-3.68	16.7	15.4	1.31
Vladimir Stepania	30	30	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.13	-5	13	-18	13.9	14.6	-0.65	15.9	15.5	0.39
Kendall Gill	30	29	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.06	-3	11	-14	14.3	14.4	-0.12	15.4	15.7	-0.36
Eddie House	31	29	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	0.03	-5	13	-18	13.9	14.6	-0.66	15.9	15.5	0.43

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.48,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.64,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.79,0.74,0.72,0.75,0.78,0.86,0.84,0.75,0.82,0.85,0.9,0.91,0.8,0.91,0.94,0.91,0.92,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.83,0.77,0.83,0.73,0.67,0.68,0.79,0.85,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 100, NJN 101	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.7,0.69,0.67,0.71,0.76,0.71,0.73,0.61,0.67,0.7,0.82,0.79,0.82,0.8,0.78,0.88,0.95,0.93,0.94,0.94,0.95,0.83,0.85,0.74,0.82,0.8,0.77,0.79,0.76,0.67,0.62,0.71,0.84,0.83,1	94.4%
UTA 117, DAL 125	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.54,0.61,0.6,0.59,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.69,0.67,0.65,0.61,0.68,0.69,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.78,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.83,0.86,0.89,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.93,0.85,0.81,0.78,0.85,0.86,0.81,0.78,0.71,0.78,0.81,0.84,0.98,1,1	93.9%
CHI 70, CLE 73	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.65,0.68,0.65,0.58,0.69,0.66,0.73,0.71,0.79,0.77,0.76,0.76,0.83,0.78,0.75,0.71,0.77,0.83,0.88,0.86,0.84,0.85,0.89,0.93,0.95,0.9,0.87,0.89,0.85,0.79,0.72,0.69,0.65,0.72,0.68,0.89,0.9,0.96,1	93.6%