NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	80		Excitement	3.2 [1113]		MVP	Wang Zhi-zhi (DAL): +4.9%
Dallas Mavericks	102		Comeback	1.4 [1172]		LVP	Darrell Armstrong (ORL): -11.3%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Miller	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.03	21	45%	0.02	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Andrew DeClercq	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeryl Sasser	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.06	0.00	-0.06	4	30%	0.00	1	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Jud Buechler	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Don Reid	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0.02	6	57%	-0.02	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Pat Garrity	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	7	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Horace Grant	-0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.01	6	36%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Troy Hudson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.15	0.00	-0.11	11	25%	-0.02	3	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Patrick Ewing	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	0.02	11	55%	-0.02	3	-0.04	7	86%	0.01
Monty Williams	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	6	50%	-0.01	3	-0.06	4	50%	-0.01
Darrell Armstrong	-0.11	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.01	-0.01	11	25%	-0.10	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wang Zhi-zhi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.02	0.01	8	56%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.00	-0.04	11	55%	0.05	1	-0.02	7	86%	0.00
Steve Nash	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.00	-0.04	12	54%	0.04	2	-0.01	4	75%	0.01
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.02	7	62%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	14	56%	0.04	2	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	10	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Manning	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	0.00	0.02	8	60%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Donnell Harvey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Evan Eschmeyer	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.10	-0.00	-0.03	8	30%	-0.05	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.7	2.5	30.5	16.3	23.3	1.6	28.5	126.4
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +42.9%

DAL +6.3%

ORL -1.1%

DAL +5.4%

ORL -3.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	DAL	NBA	ORL	DAL	NBA
this game	17.2	14.8	15.6	87.9	114.6	102.3
season	14.6	14.8		104.6	109.6
opponent	15.5	15.8		105.8	103.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	17.7	16.1	18.4	16.9	17.2
DAL	15.0	12.5	15.9	15.8	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeryl Sasser	26	27	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.11	-7	-15	8	16.9	17.4	-0.47	15.7	14.3	1.42
Patrick Ewing	39	36	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.08	-1	-21	20	16.8	17.5	-0.74	15.5	14.2	1.30
Horace Grant	36	36	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.03	-4	-18	14	18.0	16.7	1.34	13.9	15.3	-1.40
Jud Buechler	40	40	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.15	-11	-11	0	16.4	17.9	-1.46	15.4	14.2	1.18
Don Reid	19	21	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	0.15	-11	-11	0	15.1	17.8	-2.67	15.6	14.5	1.07
Andrew DeClercq	28	27	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	0.11	-11	-11	0	20.3	15.9	4.43	13.7	15.2	-1.51
Monty Williams	42	43	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.01	-8	-14	6	18.6	16.0	2.60	14.7	14.8	-0.02
Darrell Armstrong	48	44	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	0.06	-11	-11	0	18.4	15.9	2.53	13.8	15.7	-1.89
Troy Hudson	52	51	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	0.10	-14	-8	-6	15.6	19.4	-3.74	15.1	14.3	0.76
Pat Garrity	60	58	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	0.15	-17	-5	-12	16.2	19.1	-2.85	15.0	14.3	0.66
Mike Miller	65	62	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.03	-15	-7	-8	17.4	16.9	0.47	14.3	15.7	-1.42

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dirk Nowitzki	39	38	0.41	0.09	0.32	-0.21	21	1	20	13.7	15.6	-1.93	17.5	17.0	0.44
Eduardo Najera	57	59	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.07	11	11	0	14.0	16.1	-2.09	15.9	19.6	-3.61
Steve Nash	60	64	0.38	0.12	0.25	-0.09	16	6	10	14.5	15.3	-0.83	18.1	15.1	2.95
Juwan Howard	51	53	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.06	10	12	-2	14.5	15.2	-0.71	17.5	16.9	0.60
Michael Finley	70	74	0.31	0.19	0.13	-0.19	17	5	12	15.4	12.3	3.10	17.7	14.9	2.80
Tim Hardaway	55	53	0.30	0.20	0.10	-0.17	16	6	10	14.1	15.8	-1.69	16.2	18.6	-2.38
Wang Zhi-zhi	31	31	0.16	0.34	-0.18	-0.31	16	6	10	15.0	14.6	0.38	17.0	17.3	-0.33
Evan Eschmeyer	42	45	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.15	-1	23	-24	16.1	13.5	2.59	18.3	16.2	2.07
Danny Manning	19	19	0.07	0.43	-0.37	-0.17	8	14	-6	14.4	14.9	-0.49	16.6	17.4	-0.81
Donnell Harvey	21	19	0.01	0.48	-0.47	0.13	-4	26	-30	17.0	14.0	3.00	16.3	17.5	-1.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.67,0.76,0.8,0.79,0.76,0.83,0.85,0.86,0.91,0.94,0.96,0.95,0.94,0.92,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 76, SAS 101	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.51,0.47,0.56,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.48,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.69,0.8,0.78,0.75,0.8,0.81,0.82,0.89,0.91,0.92,0.96,0.98,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.3%
CHI 80, LAC 101	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.62,0.69,0.69,0.73,0.8,0.78,0.83,0.82,0.84,0.85,0.88,0.84,0.88,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.0%
DET 89, MIL 102	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.53,0.62,0.66,0.77,0.78,0.79,0.84,0.82,0.82,0.82,0.86,0.91,0.95,0.93,0.87,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.94,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.7%