NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	80		Excitement	6.8 [449]		MVP	Christian Laettner (WAS): +7.8%
Washington Wizards	82		Comeback	1.1 [723]		LVP	Alonzo Mourning (MIA): -19.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jim Jackson	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.01	15	60%	0.12	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Chris Gatling	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rod Strickland	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	8	37%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eddie House	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	6	53%	0.01	2	-0.08	3	100%	0.03
Brian Grant	-0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	0.00	0.00	8	44%	-0.01	4	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
LaPhonso Ellis	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.04,0.04,-0.12	0.06	-0.18	0.00	10	68%	-0.07	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Carter	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.13	-0.05	-0.00	8	12%	-0.12	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.05,-0.17,-0.24,-0.24,-0.18	-0.07	-0.12	-0.00	11	38%	-0.16	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Alonzo Mourning	-0.20	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.2,-0.2	-0.05	-0.14	0.01	9	50%	-0.15	2	-0.04	4	25%	-0.09

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Christian Laettner	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.05	-0.00	8	68%	0.12	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	-0.02	-0.00	19	57%	0.09	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Jahidi White	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	4	75%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Popeye Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.00	5	60%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kwame Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.03
Hubert Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Chris Whitney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	4	11%	-0.08	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Tyronn Lue	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.06	-0.02	6	42%	-0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Michael Jordan	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.12,-0.17	-0.17	-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	23	44%	-0.14	1	-0.02	11	64%	-0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	3.5	27.2	18.8	27.3	2.7	34.1	136.8
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +51.5%

WAS +1.2%

MIA -6.3%

WAS +0.5%

WAS +3.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	WAS	NBA	MIA	WAS	NBA
this game	16.1	18.2	15.6	95.2	97.6	102.3
season	16.5	16.5		96.6	102.2
opponent	15.3	15.8		103.9	98.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.3	15.5	15.2	17.3	16.1
WAS	17.2	17.3	19.8	18.7	18.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Gatling	13	13	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.01	0	-2	2	12.6	16.7	-4.07	18.5	18.2	0.28
Anthony Carter	38	38	0.00	-0.50	0.51	-0.17	6	-8	14	14.6	17.3	-2.66	19.1	17.5	1.56
Eddie House	32	32	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.44	10	-12	22	16.2	16.0	0.26	19.6	17.4	2.16
LaPhonso Ellis	48	48	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.38	7	-9	16	15.4	16.9	-1.50	18.8	17.4	1.42
Brian Grant	64	62	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.09	-7	5	-12	16.2	15.5	0.73	18.0	18.8	-0.80
Rod Strickland	39	39	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.02	-12	10	-22	17.1	15.2	1.90	17.1	19.2	-2.19
Jim Jackson	59	60	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.34	-3	1	-4	16.4	15.2	1.17	18.0	18.8	-0.79
Eddie Jones	68	67	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.40	-4	2	-6	16.4	14.4	2.00	18.2	18.4	-0.16
Alonzo Mourning	59	61	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.38	-7	5	-12	16.5	14.9	1.62	17.7	19.7	-1.96

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Jordan	60	59	0.83	-0.33	1.16	0.42	14	-12	26	17.5	19.9	-2.37	17.0	13.9	3.05
Richard Hamilton	59	61	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.36	6	-4	10	17.5	19.9	-2.35	17.1	13.4	3.67
Christian Laettner	59	58	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.32	2	0	2	18.6	17.3	1.29	15.9	16.4	-0.53
Brendan Haywood	42	42	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.37	-2	4	-6	18.0	18.5	-0.55	16.3	15.8	0.55
Chris Whitney	48	47	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.06	7	-5	12	18.1	18.4	-0.28	16.2	15.9	0.25
Tyronn Lue	54	55	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.43	-6	8	-14	18.5	17.7	0.87	15.4	17.3	-1.86
Jahidi White	33	33	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.02	5	-3	8	17.7	18.5	-0.82	15.8	16.2	-0.40
Popeye Jones	34	35	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.17	-1	3	-4	18.4	18.1	0.26	16.2	15.9	0.29
Kwame Brown	11	11	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.02	-4	6	-10	19.9	18.0	1.94	12.5	16.6	-4.04
Hubert Davis	20	19	-0.29	0.79	-1.09	0.03	-11	13	-24	20.8	17.4	3.44	13.6	16.8	-3.14

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.63,0.65,0.61,0.53,0.61,0.62,0.6,0.63,0.62,0.6,0.49,0.58,0.67,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.76,0.72,0.7,0.75,0.77,0.77,0.89,0.89,0.86,0.79,0.85,0.84,0.82,0.81,0.82,0.81,0.82,0.79,0.67,0.68,0.69,0.81,0.72,0.75,0.72,0.9,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 98, LAL 102	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.65,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.7,0.74,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.67,0.7,0.59,0.64,0.7,0.75,0.7,0.73,0.81,0.8,0.87,0.81,0.81,0.82,0.83,0.82,0.77,0.8,0.79,0.85,0.85,0.88,0.76,0.68,0.59,0.76,0.67,0.69,0.71,0.85,0.82,1	94.2%
CHA 85, ATL 90	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.65,0.67,0.61,0.72,0.71,0.7,0.69,0.61,0.7,0.78,0.74,0.78,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.86,0.84,0.85,0.87,0.82,0.87,0.87,0.86,0.8,0.72,0.79,0.76,0.78,0.92,0.85,0.84,0.95,1	93.3%
MEM 88, BOS 90	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.57,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.64,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.66,0.71,0.73,0.74,0.69,0.64,0.7,0.76,0.72,0.78,0.78,0.84,0.8,0.8,0.76,0.76,0.67,0.75,0.74,0.82,0.71,0.67,0.53,0.63,0.76,0.83,0.81,0.89,0.9,0.84,1	93.2%