NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	83		Excitement	7.6 [311]		MVP	Hedo Turkoglu (SAC): +24.9%
Sacramento Kings	95		Comeback	1.8 [746]		LVP	Bonzi Wells (POR): -24.1%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Zach Randolph	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.14,0.21,0.09,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	6	83%	0.20	2	-0.16	0	0%	0.00
Steve Kerr	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	5	67%	0.06	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Ruben Boumtje-Boumtje	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dale Davis	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.03	7	71%	0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Derek Anderson	-0.02	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.01	9	53%	0.01	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Shawn Kemp	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.08,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	11	46%	0.06	2	-0.10	4	100%	0.05
Rick Brunson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.01	-0.06	0.00	7	59%	-0.01	1	-0.05	3	67%	0.00
Erick Barkley	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rasheed Wallace	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	10	48%	-0.00	2	-0.05	1	0%	-0.02
Bonzi Wells	-0.24	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.26,-0.3,-0.36,-0.36,-0.19,-0.23,-0.24	-0.17	-0.08	-0.01	18	33%	-0.11	4	-0.14	3	33%	-0.04

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.10	0.18	0.03	9	75%	0.25	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.00
Mike Bibby	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.02	-0.02	16	62%	0.12	1	-0.01	8	87%	0.01
Peja Stojakovic	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.01	20	48%	0.03	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.06
Vlade Divac	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.09,0,0	-0.00	-0.09	0.08	-0.00	12	42%	0.09	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.01
Scot Pollard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Lawrence Funderburke	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.04	0.00	6	33%	-0.00	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.09	-0.09	-0.00	10	30%	-0.10	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Doug Christie	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.12	-0.06	0.01	12	42%	-0.03	5	-0.17	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	2.4	24.3	15.4	21.3	2.5	31.6	120.0
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +16.4%

POR -5.8%

SAC +18.6%

SAC +22.7%

POR -2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	SAC	NBA	POR	SAC	NBA
this game	16.2	15.1	15.6	89.2	104.4	102.3
season	16.0	14.2		105.0	106.6
opponent	15.5	15.6		99.6	102.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	16.4	15.3	16.0	16.9	16.2
SAC	15.5	17.5	15.3	12.4	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ruben Boumtje-Boumtje	4	5	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	0.02	-4	-8	4	18.5	16.1	2.42	17.4	15.0	2.42
Dale Davis	53	52	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.08	-2	-10	8	16.0	16.4	-0.42	15.6	14.5	1.04
Rasheed Wallace	55	53	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.10	-2	-10	8	16.1	16.3	-0.27	15.9	14.0	1.86
Erick Barkley	27	26	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.02	-5	-7	2	16.9	15.9	1.05	16.5	14.5	2.00
Rick Brunson	62	61	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.18	-1	-11	10	15.6	17.3	-1.61	14.5	16.3	-1.78
Steve Kerr	37	36	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	0.20	-14	2	-16	17.0	15.6	1.40	14.4	15.6	-1.24
Zach Randolph	28	27	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.23	-1	-11	10	16.7	15.9	0.81	13.4	15.8	-2.42
Shawn Kemp	44	43	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.06	-10	-2	-8	16.2	16.1	0.08	14.6	15.6	-0.96
Derek Anderson	79	79	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.12	-10	-2	-8	16.0	17.1	-1.05	15.5	12.4	3.10
Bonzi Wells	76	73	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.19	-11	-1	-10	16.0	17.2	-1.22	14.9	15.9	-1.04

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Doug Christie	68	70	0.67	-0.17	0.83	0.20	16	-4	20	15.0	15.6	-0.61	16.1	16.4	-0.33
Hedo Turkoglu	39	39	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.11	18	-6	24	14.2	15.8	-1.63	17.1	15.5	1.58
Vlade Divac	79	81	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.21	9	3	6	14.7	17.7	-3.04	16.3	15.3	0.98
Mike Bibby	72	73	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.02	7	5	2	15.3	14.3	1.00	16.0	16.7	-0.66
Peja Stojakovic	61	63	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.11	3	9	-6	15.7	14.0	1.66	15.3	18.0	-2.73
Bobby Jackson	43	44	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.01	4	8	-4	15.1	15.1	0.01	16.4	16.0	0.43
Lawrence Funderburke	42	43	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.08	1	11	-10	15.0	15.2	-0.20	16.6	15.9	0.70
Scot Pollard	51	52	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.03	2	10	-8	15.8	14.2	1.53	16.2	16.2	-0.02

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.64,0.65,0.63,0.61,0.66,0.71,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.58,0.63,0.6,0.67,0.64,0.61,0.68,0.74,0.72,0.8,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.57,0.48,0.38,0.47,0.47,0.59,0.73,0.75,0.64,0.78,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 86, SAS 91	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.62,0.64,0.72,0.71,0.63,0.63,0.67,0.64,0.64,0.56,0.61,0.58,0.71,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.67,0.77,0.74,0.78,0.73,0.77,0.75,0.62,0.48,0.38,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.76,0.82,0.69,0.63,0.76,0.96,1	93.8%
GSW 79, SAS 87	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.63,0.62,0.58,0.53,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.63,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.72,0.72,0.7,0.67,0.65,0.63,0.75,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.59,0.59,0.73,0.6,0.58,0.5,0.43,0.53,0.42,0.53,0.41,0.61,0.61,0.62,0.71,0.86,0.97,1	93.5%
ATL 85, DET 87	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.56,0.69,0.71,0.76,0.77,0.71,0.76,0.69,0.7,0.67,0.7,0.71,0.72,0.73,0.64,0.61,0.68,0.65,0.59,0.59,0.67,0.64,0.5,0.57,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.53,0.69,0.72,0.75,0.89,0.91,0.96,1	91.9%