NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	105		Excitement	6.5 [511]		MVP	Mike Miller (ORL): +13.7%
Orlando Magic	115		Comeback	2.4 [678]		LVP	Darrell Armstrong (ORL): -12.1%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Peja Stojakovic	0.01	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,-0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.09,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.02	-0.01	18	69%	0.20	6	-0.19	9	89%	0.02
Lawrence Funderburke	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Scot Pollard	-0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	7	53%	0.00	2	-0.06	5	80%	-0.00
Doug Christie	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.02	0.02	14	49%	-0.04	1	-0.03	7	100%	0.04
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	10	32%	-0.07	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Mike Bibby	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.07,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.05	-0.03	0.02	15	50%	0.01	3	-0.11	4	75%	-0.00
Bobby Jackson	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1	-0.02	-0.02	0.06	11	36%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vlade Divac	-0.11	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.03	-0.02	12	50%	-0.02	5	-0.09	6	83%	-0.01

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.05	0.08	-0.01	16	53%	0.14	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Troy Hudson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.03	-0.00	7	73%	0.10	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.00	0.04	-0.04	30	55%	0.12	2	-0.03	20	75%	0.01
Steven Hunter	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	0.00	2	67%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Pat Garrity	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	20%	-0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Bo Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Ewing	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	4	58%	0.01	3	-0.09	4	75%	0.00
Grant Hill	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	16	40%	-0.07	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Horace Grant	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	0.00	10	30%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.11	-0.03	-0.02	11	36%	-0.06	2	-0.06	6	83%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.4	2.7	29.2	16.7	28.2	2.5	40.3	148.0
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +15.8%

ORL +2.0%

ORL +4.8%

ORL +23.6%

ORL +3.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	ORL	NBA	SAC	ORL	NBA
this game	13.1	13.3	15.6	97.2	104.5	102.3
season	14.2	14.6		106.6	104.6
opponent	15.8	15.5		103.3	99.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	14.3	12.9	13.8	11.6	13.1
ORL	12.9	13.8	12.3	14.0	13.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Scot Pollard	74	72	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.19	3	-13	16	13.7	11.9	1.89	13.3	13.2	0.05
Lawrence Funderburke	15	14	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	0.11	-9	-1	-8	15.0	12.8	2.15	13.9	13.2	0.75
Bobby Jackson	35	36	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.05	-10	0	-10	12.0	13.7	-1.74	12.8	13.5	-0.65
Mike Bibby	91	94	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.30	-1	-9	8	13.2	12.6	0.59	13.2	13.5	-0.27
Doug Christie	85	86	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.21	-5	-5	0	13.2	13.0	0.13	13.6	12.1	1.47
Vlade Divac	70	73	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.13	-9	-1	-8	13.3	12.9	0.35	13.1	13.6	-0.44
Peja Stojakovic	97	99	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.25	-6	-4	-2	13.2	12.5	0.67	12.9	16.7	-3.84
Hedo Turkoglu	73	76	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.11	-13	3	-16	12.4	14.8	-2.40	13.7	12.4	1.29

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tracy McGrady	98	94	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.28	10	0	10	13.1	14.7	-1.66	13.3	12.1	1.16
Horace Grant	76	73	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.21	12	-2	14	12.9	14.1	-1.14	12.8	13.9	-1.05
Darrell Armstrong	73	70	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.28	7	3	4	12.9	14.1	-1.22	12.6	14.2	-1.68
Mike Miller	76	74	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.12	12	-2	14	13.7	12.4	1.29	12.4	14.8	-2.45
Steven Hunter	28	29	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.04	8	2	6	11.9	13.8	-1.90	16.4	11.9	4.51
Bo Outlaw	28	31	0.19	0.31	-0.11	-0.01	7	3	4	14.7	12.8	1.93	14.1	12.8	1.29
Grant Hill	83	81	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.23	-4	14	-18	12.8	14.6	-1.75	12.8	14.1	-1.33
Pat Garrity	10	10	0.09	0.41	-0.33	-0.06	5	5	0	15.0	13.1	1.90	12.9	13.2	-0.27
Troy Hudson	39	38	0.02	0.48	-0.45	-0.09	4	6	-2	14.0	12.9	1.13	13.9	12.7	1.15
Patrick Ewing	39	40	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	0.11	-11	21	-32	14.1	12.8	1.33	12.8	13.4	-0.55

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.43,0.42,0.45,0.51,0.39,0.31,0.33,0.32,0.35,0.4,0.45,0.52,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.61,0.64,0.73,0.7,0.77,0.8,0.83,0.92,0.92,0.9,0.91,0.82,0.81,0.79,0.78,0.79,0.89,0.83,0.73,0.79,0.81,0.91,0.9,0.98,0.98,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 104, ORL 110	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.36,0.38,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.38,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.47,0.56,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.51,0.64,0.67,0.74,0.77,0.85,0.87,0.79,0.82,0.8,0.86,0.85,0.74,0.78,0.78,0.81,0.75,0.8,0.85,0.83,0.88,0.95,0.99,0.98,0.98,1,1	93.8%
MIL 85, MIN 96	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.37,0.42,0.38,0.48,0.4,0.47,0.53,0.44,0.4,0.48,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.7,0.75,0.79,0.79,0.8,0.76,0.86,0.89,0.91,0.92,0.92,0.92,0.93,0.87,0.9,0.86,0.89,0.88,0.92,0.94,0.93,0.98,1,1,1,1	93.2%
DEN 97, GSW 112	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.38,0.49,0.44,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.56,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.7,0.84,0.84,0.87,0.91,0.86,0.94,0.93,0.88,0.85,0.81,0.88,0.87,0.82,0.9,0.84,0.85,0.83,0.95,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	93.2%