NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Philadelphia 76ers	90		Excitement	6.7 [451]		MVP	Mikki Moore (DET): +7.6%
Detroit Pistons	84		Comeback	1.5 [599]		LVP	Matt Geiger (PHI): -32.1%

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eric Snow	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0.04,0.04	-0.00	0.07	0.02	13	48%	0.04	0	0.00	5	100%	0.06
Dikembe Mutombo	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.09	16	54%	0.05	4	-0.02	7	71%	0.00
George Lynch	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.01	15	53%	0.02	0	0.00	4	100%	0.04
Kevin Ollie	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0	-0.06	0.04	-0.01	8	35%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.05
Jumaine Jones	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	8	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pepe Sanchez	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Buford	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	13	38%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Matt Geiger	-0.32	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.18,-0.22,-0.22,-0.28,-0.28,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31,-0.29,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.31,-0.3,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32	-0.24	-0.08	-0.01	19	27%	-0.26	2	-0.06	10	70%	-0.01

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mikki Moore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.01	0.00	4	90%	0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ben Wallace	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.05	-0.01	4	50%	0.07	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Kornel David	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chucky Atkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.03	-0.01	9	44%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Billy Owens	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	4	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Joe Smith	0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	9	55%	0.03	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.02
Corliss Williamson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	6	43%	-0.02	2	-0.04	2	0%	-0.03
Dana Barros	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13	-0.13	-0.01	-0.11	0.01	12	59%	0.03	3	-0.16	3	67%	0.01
Mateen Cleaves	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.12	-0.03	0.00	7	45%	-0.05	4	-0.09	6	83%	0.01
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.18	-0.05	-0.02	19	33%	-0.10	4	-0.11	4	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.6	1.7	32.5	16.6	29.4	1.7	30.4	134.9
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET -26.5%

PHI +11.7%

PHI +24.4%

PHI +36.3%

PHI +4.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHI	DET	NBA	PHI	DET	NBA
this game	17.1	13.7	15.5	96.8	89.4	100.9
season	15.7	14.3		101.4	97.9
opponent	15.4	15.5		99.6	97.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHI	16.4	17.9	14.1	20.4	17.1
DET	15.6	12.1	14.7	12.4	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Matt Geiger	64	60	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.21	12	-6	18	16.8	17.8	-1.05	14.1	13.1	1.02
Dikembe Mutombo	83	85	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.38	1	5	-4	17.6	12.8	4.83	14.3	8.6	5.70
Eric Snow	65	68	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.30	3	3	0	17.4	16.4	1.07	14.6	11.4	3.17
George Lynch	84	86	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.36	0	6	-6	16.9	19.3	-2.46	13.8	12.7	1.05
Pepe Sanchez	20	21	0.32	0.18	0.15	-0.09	14	-8	22	14.6	17.8	-3.19	12.1	14.2	-2.08
Kevin Ollie	68	67	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.29	0	6	-6	17.5	16.2	1.30	13.9	13.3	0.53
Jumaine Jones	47	50	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.08	3	3	0	17.4	16.8	0.51	12.4	15.2	-2.72
Rodney Buford	34	33	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.08	-3	9	-12	16.9	17.3	-0.40	12.2	14.5	-2.27

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kornel David	20	18	0.29	-0.79	1.08	-0.06	12	-18	30	11.6	14.3	-2.62	16.9	17.2	-0.27
Mateen Cleaves	42	43	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.00	-1	-5	4	12.1	15.0	-2.88	16.8	17.4	-0.63
Mikki Moore	30	31	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.17	2	-8	10	11.9	14.6	-2.71	18.3	16.5	1.77
Dana Barros	42	42	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.35	6	-12	18	12.3	14.8	-2.54	17.9	16.5	1.45
Corliss Williamson	48	50	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.27	-2	-4	2	12.0	15.5	-3.59	18.3	15.7	2.58
Jerry Stackhouse	52	51	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.02	-12	6	-18	14.8	12.3	2.54	16.5	17.9	-1.45
Billy Owens	44	42	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.12	-9	3	-12	15.6	12.1	3.49	15.9	18.1	-2.28
Joe Smith	54	54	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.21	-8	2	-10	15.4	11.5	3.90	16.6	17.8	-1.23
Chucky Atkins	55	52	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.22	-9	3	-12	14.6	12.5	2.05	16.8	17.5	-0.72
Ben Wallace	83	82	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.25	-9	3	-12	14.1	11.0	3.07	17.3	15.4	1.98

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.34,0.36,0.31,0.33,0.28,0.27,0.31,0.36,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.32,0.22,0.17,0.14,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.14,0.12,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.19,0.29,0.22,0.28,0
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 113, NYK 110	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.34,0.43,0.43,0.31,0.29,0.28,0.3,0.36,0.4,0.3,0.33,0.35,0.46,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.59,0.54,0.45,0.44,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.25,0.17,0.13,0.1,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.13,0.1,0.21,0.17,0.42,0	93.1%
MIN 91, MIL 84	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.44,0.47,0.41,0.41,0.39,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.4,0.35,0.38,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.31,0.39,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.48,0.42,0.52,0.42,0.32,0.23,0.28,0.18,0.16,0.15,0.06,0.1,0.12,0.11,0.19,0.13,0.15,0.13,0.14,0.07,0.06,0.01,0	92.6%
DET 104, IND 98	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.38,0.45,0.47,0.35,0.38,0.3,0.34,0.3,0.36,0.25,0.19,0.29,0.25,0.29,0.29,0.36,0.42,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.48,0.45,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.28,0.34,0.26,0.18,0.08,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.09,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.28,0	92.6%