NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	91		Excitement	5.4 [725]		MVP	Kevin Garnett (MIN): +13.3%
Milwaukee Bucks	84		Comeback	1.4 [554]		LVP	Joe Smith (MIN): -18.5%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Garnett	0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13	0.04	0.08	-0.01	18	52%	0.13	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Wally Szczerbiak	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	-0.01	-0.00	10	79%	0.13	4	-0.09	4	100%	0.01
Dean Garrett	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.01	5	67%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Rasho Nesterovic	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Jackson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Peeler	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	6	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
William Avery	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terrell Brandon	-0.03	0,0,0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.06,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	16	59%	0.10	5	-0.13	5	100%	0.01
Malik Sealy	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	8	44%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Joe Smith	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.14	-0.05	-0.00	9	33%	-0.07	4	-0.11	3	100%	0.02

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.01	0.00	22	57%	0.09	2	-0.04	5	100%	0.03
Darvin Ham	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Robert Traylor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ervin Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.04	-0.02	13	46%	-0.00	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Scott Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	7	29%	-0.05	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vinny Del Negro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	4	10%	-0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Glenn Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.02	-0.08	0.02	22	46%	-0.09	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Sam Cassell	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.08	-0.07	-0.00	11	54%	0.00	5	-0.15	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	1.5	31.5	15.4	23.4	1.6	34.5	133.9
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +43.4%

MIN +7.4%

MIN +12.6%

MIL -14.7%

MIN +1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	MIL	NBA	MIN	MIL	NBA
this game	17.1	16.4	15.2	104.6	98.8	101.7
season	15.1	14.9		103.5	105.5
opponent	15.4	15.7		105.1	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIN	15.4	15.1	16.5	22.1	17.1
MIL	19.1	14.9	17.8	13.9	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wally Szczerbiak	77	75	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.24	11	-4	15	16.5	21.9	-5.41	15.8	20.7	-4.91
Joe Smith	60	60	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.34	5	2	3	18.2	14.6	3.66	16.3	16.4	-0.05
Terrell Brandon	68	65	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.21	9	-2	11	17.7	15.2	2.50	17.0	14.4	2.50
Malik Sealy	64	62	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.13	10	-3	13	16.0	20.3	-4.39	16.9	15.0	1.93
Dean Garrett	40	39	0.37	0.13	0.24	-0.01	13	-6	19	16.0	18.1	-2.06	17.9	15.0	2.88
Kevin Garnett	63	62	0.15	0.35	-0.21	0.24	-3	10	-13	18.0	14.7	3.32	16.2	16.9	-0.69
Bobby Jackson	6	8	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.04	1	6	-5	17.3	17.1	0.23	14.0	16.6	-2.61
Anthony Peeler	32	31	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.20	-6	13	-19	19.8	15.5	4.32	15.0	17.1	-2.15
Rasho Nesterovic	12	11	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.04	-2	9	-11	13.2	17.7	-4.48	16.8	16.3	0.52
William Avery	13	12	-0.03	0.53	-0.57	0.05	-3	10	-13	14.2	17.6	-3.48	14.7	16.6	-1.88

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Scott Williams	29	28	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.17	3	-10	13	18.6	15.2	3.37	18.2	16.6	1.67
Robert Traylor	5	6	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.01	-3	-4	1	18.4	16.2	2.16	15.7	17.2	-1.56
Vinny Del Negro	35	34	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.15	-2	-5	3	17.9	15.3	2.68	16.4	17.5	-1.11
Glenn Robinson	78	78	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.22	-2	-5	3	15.9	21.0	-5.05	17.2	16.6	0.62
Tim Thomas	49	47	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.22	-2	-5	3	16.5	16.2	0.25	18.4	15.6	2.71
Darvin Ham	46	49	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.02	-10	3	-13	16.1	16.7	-0.65	15.7	18.9	-3.25
Ervin Johnson	43	47	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.12	-8	1	-9	15.7	17.0	-1.26	17.1	17.2	-0.11
Ray Allen	73	76	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.29	-5	-2	-3	16.1	18.2	-2.10	16.9	18.4	-1.43
Sam Cassell	67	70	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.27	-6	-1	-5	15.8	18.6	-2.85	17.4	15.8	1.61

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.44,0.47,0.41,0.41,0.39,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.4,0.35,0.38,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.31,0.39,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.48,0.42,0.52,0.42,0.32,0.23,0.28,0.18,0.16,0.15,0.06,0.1,0.12,0.11,0.19,0.13,0.15,0.13,0.14,0.07,0.06,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 91, GSW 85	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.4,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.31,0.41,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.42,0.35,0.29,0.2,0.26,0.21,0.08,0.05,0.11,0.17,0.06,0.1,0.11,0.13,0.07,0.01,0,0,0	94.0%
DAL 109, NOK 103	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.41,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.37,0.41,0.36,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.54,0.46,0.51,0.45,0.33,0.21,0.17,0.28,0.2,0.26,0.21,0.22,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.01,0	93.5%
IND 93, CHI 86	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.37,0.41,0.38,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.39,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.49,0.44,0.5,0.57,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.35,0.32,0.28,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.1,0.07,0.14,0.15,0.1,0.12,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.08,0	93.4%