NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	119		Excitement	4.5 [887]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +17.5%
Sacramento Kings	107		Comeback	2.3 [224]		LVP	Doug Christie (SAC): -10.5%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0.18	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.17	0.02	0.02	15	78%	0.19	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.02	-0.02	27	56%	0.13	4	-0.07	3	67%	0.00
Vernon Maxwell	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.00	0.00	4	87%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	0.04	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.06	0.01	-0.10	21	48%	0.08	3	-0.04	6	83%	-0.00
Steve Nash	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	-0.01	-0.05	14	58%	0.07	4	-0.06	3	100%	0.01
Calvin Booth	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	9	56%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Howard Eisley	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Buckner	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Bradley	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Williams	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	-0.00	11	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	-0.01	7	62%	0.04	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Scot Pollard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Webber	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.02	-0.01	24	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	6	50%	-0.03
Jon Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	4	25%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Peja Stojakovic	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	0.02	16	62%	0.05	4	-0.09	7	86%	0.00
Vlade Divac	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.02	0.02	7	67%	-0.00	3	-0.06	10	80%	-0.00
Doug Christie	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	13	50%	-0.03	5	-0.08	4	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	2.3	24.7	15.2	26.5	2.5	26.3	120.0
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +35.5%

DAL +3.9%

SAC -2.4%

DAL +10.4%

DAL +2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	SAC	NBA	DAL	SAC	NBA
this game	15.0	12.9	15.5	115.5	103.9	100.9
season	15.2	14.4		104.6	103.1
opponent	15.5	15.3		97.8	101.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	14.7	12.8	15.1	17.6	15.0
SAC	13.0	14.8	12.6	11.2	12.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Finley	98	98	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.16	14	-2	16	14.8	20.0	-5.20	12.7	16.4	-3.67
Dirk Nowitzki	102	101	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.13	12	0	12	15.2	4.0	11.16	13.0	11.0	1.95
Juwan Howard	100	99	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.17	10	2	8	14.9	21.0	-6.13	13.0	11.0	1.99
Howard Eisley	23	24	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.09	15	-3	18	11.3	16.1	-4.76	15.4	12.2	3.21
Steve Nash	86	87	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.16	6	6	0	15.2	14.1	1.19	12.3	16.0	-3.66
Calvin Booth	34	35	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.03	4	8	-4	12.8	16.1	-3.32	13.4	12.7	0.74
Vernon Maxwell	22	21	0.09	0.41	-0.31	-0.02	4	8	-4	15.4	15.0	0.46	16.1	12.1	4.00
Greg Buckner	29	31	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.12	-1	13	-14	17.5	14.1	3.44	11.1	13.7	-2.55
Shawn Bradley	21	19	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.09	-4	16	-20	19.6	13.9	5.74	11.2	13.3	-2.09

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Scot Pollard	13	13	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	0.05	-3	-9	6	16.2	12.4	3.80	17.5	14.7	2.76
Jon Barry	49	50	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.08	-4	-8	4	13.3	12.5	0.79	16.2	14.0	2.24
Vlade Divac	48	48	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.08	-4	-8	4	12.5	13.2	-0.69	14.6	15.5	-0.91
Jason Williams	60	61	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.10	-4	-8	4	12.6	13.3	-0.71	15.0	15.2	-0.20
Bobby Jackson	49	48	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.04	-12	0	-12	13.2	12.6	0.59	14.6	15.4	-0.79
Peja Stojakovic	100	101	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.17	-9	-3	-6	12.7	19.3	-6.61	15.2	9.5	5.66
Chris Webber	103	103	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.15	-12	0	-12	12.9	0.0	12.91	15.0	0.0	15.05
Doug Christie	93	91	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.18	-12	0	-12	12.7	15.3	-2.64	14.5	19.3	-4.85

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.61,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.69,0.69,0.6,0.53,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.33,0.26,0.4,0.2,0.22,0.14,0.11,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 113, NOH 100	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.66,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.67,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.44,0.41,0.44,0.39,0.44,0.33,0.29,0.37,0.22,0.24,0.27,0.21,0.15,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.0%
GSW 98, ATL 85	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.52,0.6,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.6,0.65,0.62,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.54,0.59,0.59,0.46,0.54,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.35,0.4,0.28,0.17,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.4%
TOR 109, ORL 79	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.65,0.68,0.73,0.66,0.6,0.6,0.54,0.42,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.33,0.42,0.29,0.26,0.15,0.11,0.16,0.18,0.17,0.1,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.2%