NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	98		Excitement	8.8 [115]		MVP	Lucious Harris (NJN): +18.1%
New Jersey Nets	101		Comeback	2.1 [238]		LVP	Kelvin Cato (HOU): -14.0%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Matt Bullard	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.04	-0.00	9	61%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hakeem Olajuwon	-0.01	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.01	9	53%	0.02	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.02
Shandon Anderson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	9	52%	-0.01	1	-0.03	9	67%	-0.03
Moochie Norris	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Walt Williams	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	3	37%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Cuttino Mobley	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.09,-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	13	53%	0.09	2	-0.15	10	80%	0.02
Steve Francis	-0.11	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.1,-0.05,-0.02,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11	0.01	-0.12	-0.00	19	58%	0.11	3	-0.21	10	90%	0.10
Kenny Thomas	-0.13	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.11	-0.03	-0.01	7	35%	-0.08	2	-0.05	6	50%	-0.02
Kelvin Cato	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	6	29%	-0.11	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lucious Harris	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.18,0.18	0.18	-0.03	0.20	-0.01	13	48%	0.23	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Evan Eschmeyer	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.00	0.06	-0.00	5	50%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Doug Overton	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.08	-0.03	0.01	13	62%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.01	10	58%	0.12	1	-0.08	6	83%	0.03
Eddie Gill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.04	-0.00	7	47%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Keith Van Horn	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01	0.01	-0.05	0.04	-0.03	14	58%	0.12	5	-0.10	5	100%	0.06
Mark Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	9	44%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Johnny Newman	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.13,-0.14	-0.14	-0.04	-0.09	0.01	11	57%	-0.06	3	-0.08	8	87%	0.08

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.3	2.4	25.0	13.8	28.4	1.7	40.1	133.7
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NJN +30.8%

NJN +15.9%

HOU -9.7%

NJN +20.4%

HOU -7.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	NJN	NBA	HOU	NJN	NBA
this game	15.3	16.0	15.5	106.5	109.8	100.9
season	16.3	15.5		104.6	97.8
opponent	15.1	14.9		103.0	102.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	14.2	15.7	15.3	16.0	15.3
NJN	15.2	15.6	14.8	19.1	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kelvin Cato	36	36	0.14	-0.64	0.78	-0.01	5	-8	13	15.3	15.2	0.06	17.1	15.4	1.68
Kenny Thomas	74	74	0.03	-0.53	0.55	-0.18	7	-10	17	14.6	18.2	-3.67	15.8	17.1	-1.34
Cuttino Mobley	80	79	-0.07	-0.42	0.35	-0.34	9	-12	21	14.6	20.0	-5.44	15.9	16.7	-0.77
Matt Bullard	40	38	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.10	-3	0	-3	16.6	14.2	2.35	17.4	15.0	2.41
Shandon Anderson	52	54	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.31	0	-3	3	14.2	16.6	-2.35	15.0	17.4	-2.41
Walt Williams	18	19	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.25	-6	3	-9	18.2	14.6	3.67	16.2	16.0	0.22
Moochie Norris	24	25	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.16	-11	8	-19	17.6	14.5	3.13	17.0	15.7	1.33
Steve Francis	81	80	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.39	-6	3	-9	15.2	16.0	-0.83	15.8	17.3	-1.50
Hakeem Olajuwon	55	55	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.32	-10	7	-17	15.4	15.1	0.36	15.7	16.6	-0.94

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lucious Harris	80	80	0.76	-0.26	1.02	0.47	10	-7	17	15.3	21.0	-5.71	15.1	16.1	-0.93
Doug Overton	66	68	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.36	9	-6	15	16.6	14.7	1.92	16.2	12.7	3.41
Keith Van Horn	84	85	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.41	4	-1	5	15.9	17.9	-2.02	15.3	15.4	-0.17
Johnny Newman	70	70	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.55	-2	5	-7	15.7	17.1	-1.45	15.5	14.6	0.89
Aaron Williams	55	54	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.35	1	2	-1	16.3	15.7	0.55	15.7	14.7	1.05
Evan Eschmeyer	37	37	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	-0.00	0	3	-3	15.7	16.3	-0.55	14.9	15.5	-0.64
Mark Strickland	34	33	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.12	2	1	1	17.2	15.3	1.86	15.1	15.4	-0.33
Eddie Gill	34	33	-0.22	0.72	-0.95	0.04	-9	12	-21	16.7	15.6	1.07	13.2	16.4	-3.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.38,0.4,0.43,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.54,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.72,0.67,0.64,0.67,0.55,0.45,0.51,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.48,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.73,0.81,0.63,0.67,0.72,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 104, MIL 106	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.48,0.56,0.54,0.53,0.52,0.47,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.61,0.67,0.69,0.75,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.42,0.38,0.41,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.48,0.57,0.42,0.47,0.41,0.59,0.54,0.68,0.71,0.78,0.58,1	90.9%
WAS 83, OKC 88	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.41,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.44,0.35,0.4,0.44,0.45,0.4,0.37,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.5,0.55,0.63,0.69,0.58,0.64,0.66,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.74,0.75,0.74,0.66,0.57,0.52,0.42,0.3,0.4,0.54,0.68,0.63,0.32,0.58,1	90.3%
MIN 95, LAC 101	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.37,0.34,0.3,0.34,0.4,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.64,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.67,0.64,0.52,0.41,0.48,0.56,0.44,0.4,0.46,0.57,0.52,0.38,0.42,0.36,0.53,0.47,0.62,0.85,0.68,0.85,1	90.2%