NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	104		Excitement	9.5 [81]		MVP	James Posey (MEM): +33.5%
Milwaukee Bucks	106		Comeback	1.9 [758]		LVP	Shane Battier (MEM): -33.4%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Posey	0.33	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,0.01,0.01,0.18,0.33	0.07	0.28	0.01	18	60%	0.36	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.09
Jason Williams	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.09,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.00	-0.00	9	89%	0.20	4	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Bonzi Wells	0.05	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	-0.01	-0.01	12	68%	0.11	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.03
Pau Gasol	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.03	0.00	11	64%	0.12	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Earl Watson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	5	40%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lorenzen Wright	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.02	0.00	4	30%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Stromile Swift	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	5	45%	0.00	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Bo Outlaw	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Dahntay Jones	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	-0.33	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,0,0,-0.33	-0.03	-0.30	0.00	13	50%	-0.24	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Keith Van Horn	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.31,0.34,0.34,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.13	0.11	0.01	19	67%	0.24	1	-0.02	7	86%	0.03
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.03	0.00	3	71%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Michael Redd	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,0.03,-0.04,0.05	0.05	-0.00	0.05	-0.00	16	49%	0.05	0	0.00	7	86%	-0.05
Brian Skinner	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.04	0.01	13	57%	0.08	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.05
Toni Kukoc	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.11,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.00	8	65%	0.04	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.05
Damon Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	6	17%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.05	-0.07	-0.00	4	37%	-0.02	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Desmond Mason	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.28,-0.26,-0.22,-0.22,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.09,-0.09,-0.22	-0.22	-0.15	-0.07	-0.01	15	42%	-0.11	4	-0.11	10	70%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.5	27.5	15.5	30.2	2.4	34.5	136.9
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM -11.3%

MIL +15.3%

MIL +24.9%

MIL +23.9%

MEM -2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	MIL	NBA	MEM	MIL	NBA
this game	16.6	15.4	15.7	115.6	117.8	100.5
season	15.3	15.3		102.3	103.6
opponent	15.5	15.7		103.3	100.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	15.3	18.5	14.0	19.3	16.6
MIL	14.0	15.1	16.0	16.7	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lorenzen Wright	52	50	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.20	4	-6	10	17.4	15.5	1.95	16.2	14.4	1.80
James Posey	64	63	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.38	8	-10	18	16.5	16.9	-0.40	15.2	15.9	-0.65
Dahntay Jones	14	13	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.08	-8	6	-14	17.2	16.5	0.73	12.6	15.9	-3.25
Bo Outlaw	32	30	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.04	-9	7	-16	17.2	16.2	1.01	14.3	15.9	-1.65
Jason Williams	58	60	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.42	6	-8	14	16.7	16.4	0.25	15.8	14.5	1.35
Earl Watson	32	30	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.03	-8	6	-14	16.4	16.7	-0.25	14.5	15.8	-1.35
Bonzi Wells	53	55	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.38	4	-6	10	16.8	16.3	0.51	16.2	14.2	1.96
Stromile Swift	33	34	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.01	-9	7	-16	15.7	17.1	-1.47	14.4	16.0	-1.68
Pau Gasol	58	60	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.48	7	-9	16	16.2	17.2	-1.01	15.9	14.3	1.65
Shane Battier	54	55	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.44	-5	3	-8	16.1	17.3	-1.13	15.4	15.3	0.09

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Erick Strickland	37	37	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.37	7	-5	12	15.2	15.6	-0.40	17.8	15.8	2.01
Desmond Mason	76	76	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.41	4	-2	6	15.0	17.6	-2.66	16.1	19.6	-3.52
Toni Kukoc	40	40	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.03	14	-12	26	15.2	15.5	-0.27	18.0	15.5	2.52
Michael Redd	77	78	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.40	-4	6	-10	15.5	14.8	0.65	16.2	19.4	-3.25
Brian Skinner	57	58	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.42	-5	7	-12	15.1	15.8	-0.71	15.9	17.8	-1.93
Keith Van Horn	74	74	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.42	-6	8	-14	15.3	15.9	-0.65	16.8	15.6	1.26
Damon Jones	64	63	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.17	-3	5	-8	15.9	14.1	1.86	16.5	16.8	-0.31
Dan Gadzuric	25	24	0.07	0.43	-0.35	-0.02	3	-1	4	16.5	15.0	1.55	16.8	16.5	0.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.48,0.56,0.54,0.53,0.52,0.47,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.61,0.67,0.69,0.75,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.42,0.38,0.41,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.48,0.57,0.42,0.47,0.41,0.59,0.54,0.68,0.71,0.78,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 71, TOR 77	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.42,0.36,0.37,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.48,0.42,0.35,0.35,0.37,0.44,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.38,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.71,0.61,0.76,0.79,0.76,0.74,1	91.2%
HOU 98, NJN 101	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.38,0.4,0.43,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.54,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.72,0.67,0.64,0.67,0.55,0.45,0.51,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.48,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.73,0.81,0.63,0.67,0.72,1	90.9%
ORL 98, MIA 101	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.44,0.48,0.48,0.61,0.67,0.73,0.67,0.71,0.72,0.67,0.64,0.64,0.62,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.48,0.6,0.46,0.3,0.38,0.43,0.63,0.41,0.65,0.77,0.75,0.85,0.68,0.73,1	90.9%