NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	98		Excitement	8.0 [269]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +27.9%
Miami Heat	101		Comeback	2.4 [744]		LVP	Steve Francis (ORL): -19.2%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Grant Hill	0.23	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.23,0.23	0.10	0.13	0.00	17	70%	0.30	2	-0.07	6	67%	-0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.12	0.07	0.10	0.05	9	70%	0.16	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Kelvin Cato	0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.11	-0.00	0.10	-0.00	4	50%	0.11	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Pat Garrity	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.05	-0.00	5	40%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	11	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Stacey Augmon	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Doug Christie	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Battie	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	0.01	-0.00	2	33%	-0.01	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Jameer Nelson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.00	-0.05	0.01	10	54%	-0.03	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Steve Francis	-0.19	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.15,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.08,-0.08,-0.19	-0.14	-0.07	-0.01	14	42%	-0.08	3	-0.11	10	60%	-0.06

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,0.05,0.02,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.17,0.28	0.28	0.04	0.24	-0.01	13	66%	0.36	2	-0.08	12	75%	0.06
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.03	-0.01	10	62%	0.09	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.16,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.05	0.00	4	75%	0.12	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Damon Jones	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.01	0.08	0.00	14	50%	0.13	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Christian Laettner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.04	0.00	6	57%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Shandon Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasual Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	11	46%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	7	56%	0.03	3	-0.13	2	50%	-0.02
Michael Doleac	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	16	31%	-0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.7	2.4	28.3	16.4	27.3	2.5	36.1	136.7
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +3.9%

MIA +22.6%

MIA +19.1%

MIA +4.6%

ORL -0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	MIA	NBA	ORL	MIA	NBA
this game	14.6	16.9	15.5	106.5	111.0	104.0
season	14.3	15.7		102.9	107.9
opponent	15.5	15.5		101.1	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	14.4	14.6	14.7	14.6	14.6
MIA	19.2	14.8	18.0	16.1	16.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kelvin Cato	58	56	0.23	-0.73	0.96	-0.12	12	-15	27	14.0	15.6	-1.56	18.1	15.0	3.06
Doug Christie	9	10	0.01	-0.51	0.51	0.01	0	-3	3	15.1	14.5	0.59	14.5	17.2	-2.71
Tony Battie	24	25	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	0.11	-8	5	-13	15.0	14.4	0.63	16.2	17.2	-0.93
Stacey Augmon	16	17	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.08	-7	4	-11	15.7	14.3	1.35	15.8	17.2	-1.41
Steve Francis	77	77	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.26	-2	-1	-1	14.1	16.8	-2.66	17.4	14.0	3.44
Dwight Howard	52	52	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.22	-4	1	-5	16.0	12.8	3.19	17.6	16.1	1.51
Pat Garrity	34	33	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.25	-5	2	-7	13.8	15.0	-1.19	14.9	18.1	-3.19
Grant Hill	74	72	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.52	4	-7	11	14.5	15.0	-0.53	17.2	15.8	1.35
Jameer Nelson	72	70	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.50	0	-3	3	14.7	14.1	0.61	17.0	16.7	0.32
Hedo Turkoglu	44	43	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.39	-5	2	-7	14.2	14.9	-0.67	16.0	17.7	-1.69

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rasual Butler	54	55	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.42	9	-6	15	15.8	18.5	-2.65	13.9	15.6	-1.75
Eddie Jones	61	63	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.43	4	-1	5	17.3	16.2	1.06	15.2	13.2	2.05
Christian Laettner	39	39	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.19	6	-3	9	16.3	17.4	-1.15	14.8	14.4	0.38
Dwyane Wade	62	63	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.37	-1	4	-5	16.5	17.7	-1.14	15.4	12.7	2.70
Damon Jones	68	69	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.16	4	-1	5	18.0	13.8	4.13	13.9	16.7	-2.88
Keyon Dooling	27	27	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.12	2	1	1	15.4	17.6	-2.19	16.7	13.7	3.06
Udonis Haslem	61	61	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.22	-3	6	-9	17.7	15.4	2.26	14.1	15.4	-1.27
Shandon Anderson	37	36	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.12	-3	6	-9	16.2	17.4	-1.26	13.2	15.5	-2.27
Michael Doleac	46	47	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.04	-3	6	-9	17.7	16.1	1.67	14.6	14.5	0.13

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.44,0.48,0.48,0.61,0.67,0.73,0.67,0.71,0.72,0.67,0.64,0.64,0.62,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.48,0.6,0.46,0.3,0.38,0.43,0.63,0.41,0.65,0.77,0.75,0.85,0.68,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 104, MIL 106	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.48,0.56,0.54,0.53,0.52,0.47,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.61,0.67,0.69,0.75,0.64,0.58,0.55,0.42,0.38,0.41,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.48,0.57,0.42,0.47,0.41,0.59,0.54,0.68,0.71,0.78,0.58,1	90.9%
MIL 111, CHH 117	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.42,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.61,0.72,0.75,0.84,0.82,0.77,0.69,0.69,0.73,0.67,0.71,0.59,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.42,0.38,0.47,0.58,0.68,0.59,0.59,0.78,0.86,0.93,0.97,0.99,1	90.8%
MIN 78, POR 85	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.47,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.55,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.58,0.63,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.64,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.55,0.44,0.52,0.48,0.4,0.42,0.34,0.43,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.76,0.78,0.92,0.89,0.68,0.97,1	90.6%