NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	95		Excitement	8.0 [201]		MVP	Reggie Miller (IND): +33.6%
Indiana Pacers	96		Comeback	1.9 [581]		LVP	Pat Garrity (ORL): -16.8%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tracy McGrady	0.16	0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.10	0.07	0.00	18	64%	0.19	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Cory Alexander	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Monty Williams	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Bo Outlaw	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	5	46%	-0.03	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Michael Doleac	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03	0.00	-0.02	0.01	6	57%	0.02	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.05
John Amaechi	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.18,0.24,0.17,0.33,0.33,0.22,-0.07	0.12	-0.16	0.03	24	59%	-0.05	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Don Reid	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.00	3	25%	-0.04	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.03
Mike Miller	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.12,-0.12	-0.03	-0.10	-0.01	14	40%	-0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Pat Garrity	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.2,-0.26,-0.17	-0.07	-0.10	-0.01	11	36%	-0.03	2	-0.13	0	0%	0.00

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Reggie Miller	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.28,0.34	0.34	0.11	0.23	0.00	14	69%	0.36	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.08
Austin Croshere	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.12	0.09	0.00	7	87%	0.21	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Sam Perkins	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.00	0.02	4	78%	0.04	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Zan Tabak	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick McKey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyus Edney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Travis Best	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	8	50%	0.00	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.11	-0.03	-0.04	15	39%	-0.05	3	-0.05	3	33%	-0.04
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	10	46%	-0.05	2	-0.08	6	67%	-0.00
Jalen Rose	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14	-0.14	-0.07	-0.09	-0.02	11	50%	-0.06	4	-0.08	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.4	29.3	16.8	22.4	2.4	30.4	126.9
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +47.7%

IND +16.1%

ORL -14.7%

ORL -1.1%

IND +2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	IND	NBA	ORL	IND	NBA
this game	15.1	18.0	15.5	108.0	111.6	100.9
season	14.6	15.9		101.6	99.3
opponent	15.6	15.8		99.9	100.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	15.7	16.1	13.7	15.2	15.1
IND	18.6	15.9	19.3	18.2	18.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Don Reid	16	16	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	0.02	-4	3	-7	14.9	15.2	-0.26	18.4	17.9	0.55
Cory Alexander	11	9	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.07	-6	5	-11	14.3	15.3	-1.00	14.0	18.5	-4.45
Monty Williams	14	12	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.02	-5	4	-9	14.5	15.3	-0.77	17.7	18.0	-0.37
Michael Doleac	47	45	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.50	12	-13	25	14.2	16.2	-2.01	18.3	17.6	0.72
Pat Garrity	39	38	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.47	10	-11	21	14.4	15.8	-1.42	18.2	17.9	0.30
John Amaechi	25	25	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	0.01	-9	8	-17	17.0	14.4	2.64	17.1	18.4	-1.28
Bo Outlaw	49	48	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.00	-11	10	-21	15.8	14.4	1.42	17.9	18.2	-0.30
Darrell Armstrong	77	77	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.54	5	-6	11	15.3	14.3	1.00	18.5	14.0	4.45
Mike Miller	80	78	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.49	3	-4	7	15.0	16.2	-1.21	17.9	19.1	-1.25
Tracy McGrady	82	82	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.48	0	-1	1	15.4	12.2	3.20	18.1	14.7	3.40

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jermaine O'Neal	61	63	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.56	-3	4	-7	18.0	18.0	-0.07	15.7	13.9	1.77
Austin Croshere	44	45	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.18	8	-7	15	17.2	18.8	-1.65	15.5	14.7	0.79
Reggie Miller	76	77	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.50	-3	4	-7	18.2	16.1	2.14	15.3	14.3	1.00
Al Harrington	72	74	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.49	-3	4	-7	18.1	17.6	0.41	15.1	15.1	0.01
Derrick McKey	22	22	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.16	8	-7	15	15.8	18.7	-2.92	15.8	14.9	0.83
Jalen Rose	59	59	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.56	-7	8	-15	18.6	16.7	1.87	14.4	16.8	-2.40
Zan Tabak	10	11	0.12	0.38	-0.26	-0.03	5	-4	9	18.1	18.0	0.13	15.7	15.1	0.66
Sam Perkins	27	27	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.02	3	-2	5	19.0	17.5	1.53	15.2	15.1	0.05
Travis Best	48	50	0.04	0.46	-0.43	-0.23	9	-8	17	17.4	18.7	-1.34	14.9	15.4	-0.48
Tyus Edney	11	12	-0.20	0.70	-0.91	0.15	-12	13	-25	20.3	17.7	2.62	13.2	15.4	-2.20

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.52,0.59,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.69,0.71,0.72,0.75,0.76,0.69,0.77,0.86,0.88,0.86,0.83,0.87,0.93,0.92,0.94,0.93,0.9,0.88,0.86,0.75,0.74,0.66,0.52,0.48,0.58,0.53,0.41,0.4,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
BKN 104, POR 112	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.63,0.68,0.71,0.75,0.78,0.7,0.66,0.71,0.78,0.82,0.86,0.82,0.84,0.83,0.84,0.86,0.91,0.94,0.89,0.87,0.88,0.87,0.9,0.87,0.85,0.8,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.52,0.57,0.53,0.41,0.35,0.34,0.55,0.63,0.57,0.91,1	93.2%
POR 88, BOS 90	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.68,0.65,0.63,0.6,0.63,0.7,0.78,0.77,0.83,0.8,0.8,0.84,0.87,0.89,0.92,0.92,0.86,0.88,0.9,0.87,0.88,0.9,0.91,0.85,0.84,0.82,0.83,0.85,0.78,0.66,0.62,0.57,0.47,0.47,0.41,0.53,0.62,0.57,0.66,0.73,1	92.1%
UTA 99, IND 104	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.6,0.65,0.7,0.71,0.67,0.75,0.8,0.8,0.79,0.88,0.92,0.96,0.92,0.91,0.78,0.81,0.77,0.81,0.85,0.78,0.7,0.62,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.38,0.72,0.78,0.92,1	91.9%