NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	97		Excitement	6.6 [475]		MVP	Dikembe Mutombo (ATL): +15.0%
Atlanta Hawks	102		Comeback	1.4 [677]		LVP	Jason Terry (ATL): -22.3%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alvin Williams	0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.11	0.08	0.03	0.01	11	71%	0.12	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Morris Peterson	0.05	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.02	0.02	17	57%	0.07	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Dell Curry	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.1,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.05,0.05	0.08	-0.02	0.01	16	56%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Stewart	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tracy Murray	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	7	58%	0.01	1	-0.02	5	80%	-0.00
Antonio Davis	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	14	48%	0.01	3	-0.08	3	100%	0.01
Corliss Williamson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	8	25%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Jackson	-0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.05	-0.04	0.02	7	37%	-0.08	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Charles Oakley	-0.14	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.16	-0.01	-0.03	7	0%	-0.12	1	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03
Keon Clark	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.13	-0.04	-0.00	2	43%	-0.08	3	-0.08	10	40%	-0.11

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dikembe Mutombo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.08	0.07	0.01	12	70%	0.18	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.02
Dion Glover	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.02	0.00	10	71%	0.11	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Tony Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.05	-0.00	3	67%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Crawford	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	9	63%	0.05	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
DerMarr Johnson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	8	56%	0.04	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Alan Henderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	11	57%	0.06	1	-0.04	6	100%	0.06
Roshown McLeod	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cal Bowdler	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hanno Mottola	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lorenzen Wright	0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.14	-0.01	-0.02	13	28%	-0.08	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.00
Jason Terry	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.09,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.2,-0.25,-0.25,-0.24,-0.26,-0.22	-0.22	-0.20	-0.05	-0.03	22	32%	-0.14	3	-0.08	6	100%	0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.4	2.3	27.3	15.5	21.6	2.5	30.5	125.1
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +15.0%

ATL +23.8%

ATL +13.5%

TOR -4.1%

ATL +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	ATL	NBA	TOR	ATL	NBA
this game	15.6	15.3	15.5	104.3	109.7	100.9
season	15.8	15.4		103.7	96.0
opponent	15.1	15.4		101.6	101.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	14.5	17.6	16.2	14.5	15.6
ATL	12.7	15.9	15.8	17.5	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Corliss Williamson	19	20	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.16	5	-10	15	16.0	15.5	0.47	18.0	14.6	3.38
Tracy Murray	26	26	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.05	1	-6	7	16.5	15.3	1.27	14.0	15.9	-1.81
Charles Oakley	41	42	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	0.00	-2	-3	1	15.6	15.7	-0.11	15.4	15.3	0.02
Michael Stewart	5	4	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	0.02	-5	0	-5	12.2	15.8	-3.62	14.7	15.4	-0.62
Mark Jackson	68	68	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.40	8	-13	21	15.3	16.4	-1.06	15.7	14.3	1.40
Keon Clark	56	56	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.25	-1	-4	3	15.8	15.3	0.54	15.8	14.7	1.07
Alvin Williams	75	75	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.29	-4	-1	-3	15.0	18.1	-3.08	15.1	16.3	-1.16
Morris Peterson	62	63	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.24	-6	1	-7	15.5	15.9	-0.47	15.8	14.4	1.44
Dell Curry	48	47	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.08	-14	9	-23	16.7	14.5	2.16	15.3	15.4	-0.18
Antonio Davis	65	64	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.32	-7	2	-9	15.6	15.6	0.02	14.2	17.9	-3.76

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dion Glover	53	52	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.28	10	-5	15	14.6	16.3	-1.68	16.2	14.9	1.29
Chris Crawford	61	61	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.17	13	-8	21	15.0	16.0	-0.95	15.1	16.6	-1.53
Dikembe Mutombo	81	79	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.33	7	-2	9	16.0	10.7	5.37	15.1	18.6	-3.47
Alan Henderson	49	51	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.32	3	2	1	14.2	16.6	-2.45	15.1	16.3	-1.25
Jason Terry	79	80	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.37	1	4	-3	15.6	13.9	1.67	15.2	18.3	-3.12
DerMarr Johnson	56	57	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.12	0	5	-5	16.5	13.6	2.86	15.9	15.2	0.75
Lorenzen Wright	44	42	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.04	2	3	-1	16.6	14.2	2.45	16.3	15.1	1.25
Cal Bowdler	2	2	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.01	0	5	-5	8.0	15.5	-7.51	20.5	15.5	4.98
Hanno Mottola	10	12	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.02	-2	7	-9	11.2	15.8	-4.64	18.2	15.2	3.02
Tony Smith	28	28	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.06	-4	9	-13	14.5	15.7	-1.21	16.8	15.1	1.66
Roshown McLeod	2	1	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.06	-5	10	-15	14.5	15.4	-0.86	4.0	15.7	-11.75

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.58,0.55,0.6,0.56,0.53,0.6,0.61,0.57,0.47,0.42,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.6,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.69,0.64,0.72,0.8,0.82,0.81,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.86,0.85,0.85,0.88,0.88,0.9,0.91,0.78,0.87,0.82,0.76,0.77,0.69,0.65,0.67,0.81,0.84,0.97,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 117, DAL 125	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.54,0.61,0.6,0.59,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.55,0.58,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.69,0.67,0.65,0.61,0.68,0.69,0.69,0.72,0.73,0.78,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.83,0.86,0.89,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.93,0.85,0.81,0.78,0.85,0.86,0.81,0.78,0.71,0.78,0.81,0.84,0.98,1,1	94.3%
DET 69, NYK 78	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.62,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.72,0.75,0.78,0.76,0.79,0.82,0.87,0.88,0.82,0.91,0.92,0.9,0.88,0.79,0.78,0.82,0.82,0.8,0.77,0.74,0.81,0.83,0.85,0.71,0.96,1,1	93.5%
NYK 103, ORL 110	0.5,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.64,0.64,0.63,0.62,0.61,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.52,0.61,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.61,0.63,0.7,0.74,0.67,0.69,0.64,0.7,0.68,0.72,0.85,0.83,0.88,0.85,0.83,0.9,0.83,0.88,0.91,0.74,0.81,0.79,0.67,0.68,0.79,0.76,0.78,0.81,0.84,0.78,0.98,1	93.4%