NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	111		Excitement	14.4 [2]		MVP	Pat Garrity (ORL): +33.3%
Orlando Magic	116		Comeback	4.1 [314]		LVP	Darrell Armstrong (ORL): -61.1%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Morris Peterson	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.04	0.00	8	64%	0.08	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Charles Oakley	0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.05	-0.05	0.10	0.00	17	52%	0.12	3	-0.07	10	100%	0.08
Keon Clark	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.04	-0.00	4	62%	0.05	2	-0.05	5	80%	0.03
Mark Jackson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	0.01	-0.09	0.00	8	69%	0.01	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Tracy Murray	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14	-0.06	-0.07	0.00	4	0%	-0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Davis	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.23,-0.14	-0.04	-0.11	-0.00	12	50%	-0.14	0	0.00	14	64%	-0.18
Alvin Williams	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.04	-0.12	-0.00	5	30%	-0.01	1	-0.16	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	-0.20	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.11,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.15,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.22,-0.22,-0.19,-0.19,-0.25,-0.25,-0.14,-0.18,-0.14,-0.01,0.14,-0.01,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.12,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.18	-0.03	-0.01	27	49%	0.26	8	-0.47	13	85%	0.05

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pat Garrity	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,0,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.34,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.28,0.28,0.44,0.44,0.33,0.33	0.33	0.08	0.25	-0.00	10	65%	0.33	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Doleac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.05	0.10	-0.01	7	71%	0.23	1	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0.01,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.09,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.16	-0.03	0.02	14	75%	0.11	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Monty Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.01	0.07	-0.00	3	75%	0.10	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Bo Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	-0.01	0.08	-0.00	5	55%	0.10	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.07
Andrew DeClercq	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.07,0.02,0.07	0.07	-0.02	0.09	-0.01	1	83%	0.11	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Don Reid	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Troy Hudson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.01	-0.02	4	30%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	0.00
John Amaechi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	3	50%	-0.02	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.01
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.35,-0.35,-0.24,-0.3,-0.41,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33,-0.27,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33,-0.42	-0.42	-0.21	-0.22	-0.01	22	39%	-0.27	4	-0.16	12	33%	-0.19
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.29,-0.52,-0.52,-0.52,-0.6,-0.6,-0.61	-0.61	-0.11	-0.49	0.01	18	45%	-0.35	4	-0.26	6	67%	-0.09

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1		OT2	Total
this game	26.2	1.8	32.0	16.8	29.0	1.8	34.0	1.5	13.1	1.8	24.9	182.8
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	1.7	17.2	1.7	17.2	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +40.9%

TOR -37.5%

ORL +40.4%

ORL +19.0%

TOR -12.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	ORL	NBA	TOR	ORL	NBA
this game	18.3	14.4	15.5	103.7	109.4	100.9
season	15.8	14.6		103.7	101.6
opponent	15.8	15.4		100.8	101.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
TOR	17.9	17.4	19.9	18.2	21.9	18.6
ORL	12.7	14.5	14.4	16.1	15.6	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keon Clark	37	37	0.04	-0.54	0.57	0.01	1	-6	7	19.6	17.6	2.06	14.9	14.1	0.86
Antonio Davis	90	88	0.01	-0.51	0.53	-0.22	8	-13	21	18.3	18.3	-0.03	14.1	15.7	-1.61
Tracy Murray	17	17	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.16	1	-6	7	15.8	18.7	-2.98	16.2	14.0	2.13
Alvin Williams	62	64	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.21	1	-6	7	18.0	18.7	-0.72	13.8	15.3	-1.49
Morris Peterson	62	60	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.14	-3	-2	-1	19.2	17.0	2.12	13.6	15.3	-1.70
Vince Carter	103	102	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.36	-8	3	-11	18.2	19.5	-1.28	14.2	19.5	-5.31
Mark Jackson	78	76	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.34	-9	4	-13	18.2	18.6	-0.43	15.1	12.5	2.59
Charles Oakley	86	86	-0.83	0.33	-1.15	-0.36	-16	11	-27	17.9	19.7	-1.74	14.6	13.4	1.22

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrew DeClercq	28	29	0.83	-0.33	1.17	0.51	11	-6	17	13.9	14.6	-0.62	17.9	18.4	-0.51
Tracy McGrady	89	91	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.22	8	-3	11	14.2	15.3	-1.08	18.1	19.4	-1.37
Darrell Armstrong	86	87	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.26	3	2	1	14.4	14.4	-0.02	17.9	19.7	-1.82
Bo Outlaw	79	80	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.23	1	4	-3	14.5	14.1	0.32	18.8	16.7	2.15
Monty Williams	24	23	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.14	4	1	3	15.7	14.0	1.76	19.2	18.0	1.21
Troy Hudson	22	22	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.01	5	0	5	13.2	14.7	-1.52	18.4	18.2	0.12
Don Reid	12	11	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.03	4	1	3	15.2	14.3	0.88	17.4	18.4	-1.01
Pat Garrity	46	44	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.01	3	2	1	15.3	13.7	1.58	19.3	17.5	1.78
Michael Doleac	33	34	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.10	-5	10	-15	14.6	14.3	0.27	17.9	18.4	-0.48
John Amaechi	25	26	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	0.02	-4	9	-13	14.6	14.3	0.33	18.3	18.3	0.05
Mike Miller	75	78	-0.41	0.91	-1.32	-0.12	-10	15	-25	13.9	15.6	-1.78	18.3	18.3	-0.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.62,0.61,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.65,0.65,0.7,0.68,0.72,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.67,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.72,0.73,0.78,0.68,0.65,0.59,0.59,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.52,0.63,0.6,0.81,0.67,0.62,0.72,0.47,0.58,0.46,0.55,0.36,0.43,0.58,0.54,0.47,0.63,0.67,0.74,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 92, MIA 91	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.59,0.64,0.6,0.67,0.65,0.67,0.73,0.75,0.7,0.72,0.74,0.75,0.69,0.67,0.63,0.49,0.47,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.68,0.66,0.78,0.78,0.81,0.71,0.65,0.59,0.56,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.48,0.47,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.81,0.72,0.81,0.63,0.32,0.58,0	89.2%
WAS 89, BOS 87	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.59,0.61,0.69,0.7,0.69,0.72,0.71,0.71,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.69,0.67,0.72,0.77,0.69,0.69,0.72,0.62,0.51,0.52,0.6,0.67,0.58,0.61,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.44,0.48,0.58,0.57,0.52,0.53,0.63,0.64,0.71,0.83,0.89,0.85,0.22,0.59,0	88.6%
IND 112, BOS 114	0.5,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.63,0.68,0.67,0.65,0.6,0.67,0.73,0.7,0.66,0.69,0.53,0.51,0.61,0.56,0.64,0.64,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.55,0.57,0.75,0.78,0.76,0.7,0.68,0.65,0.55,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.43,0.62,0.53,0.43,0.6,0.78,0.55,0.63,0.57,0.41,1	88.2%