NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	106		Excitement	8.3 [165]		MVP	Antoine Walker (BOS): +33.2%
Sacramento Kings	111		Comeback	4.6 [474]		LVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): -14.9%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antoine Walker	0.33	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.07,0,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.17,0.17,0.4,0.33	0.16	0.17	-0.00	29	69%	0.47	5	-0.14	10	60%	-0.04
Randy Brown	0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,-0.03,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.00	6	67%	0.11	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Bryant Stith	0.03	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	14	61%	0.18	2	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Vitaly Potapenko	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.00	5	40%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Milt Palacio	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	1	100%	0.02	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Eric Williams	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	5	50%	-0.03	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.01
Jerome Moiso	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Mark Blount	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Paul Pierce	-0.15	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.02,0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15	-0.01	-0.12	0.02	18	47%	-0.09	1	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Peja Stojakovic	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.01,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.05,0.05,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.08	0.19	0.00	20	59%	0.30	1	-0.04	4	75%	-0.02
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.03	0.11	-0.00	4	67%	0.14	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Chris Webber	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11	0.11	0.06	0.04	-0.01	21	65%	0.23	4	-0.12	4	50%	-0.02
Jason Williams	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.09	0.05	0.03	9	94%	0.20	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Scot Pollard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	3	71%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Jon Barry	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	0.01	0.01	11	59%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Vlade Divac	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.18,-0.23,-0.17,-0.17,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.11	0.03	-0.01	9	55%	0.09	6	-0.16	4	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.2	2.6	30.2	15.7	25.5	2.4	26.4	124.0
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +39.4%

SAC +3.2%

BOS -0.3%

SAC +4.3%

SAC +3.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	SAC	NBA	BOS	SAC	NBA
this game	17.1	14.2	15.5	115.2	120.7	100.9
season	15.1	14.4		99.7	103.1
opponent	15.5	15.4		97.8	101.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	15.3	19.1	15.5	18.8	17.1
SAC	13.5	13.6	14.5	15.5	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vitaly Potapenko	46	48	0.12	-0.62	0.74	0.06	2	-7	9	17.5	16.6	0.91	13.8	14.7	-0.85
Milt Palacio	21	22	0.08	-0.58	0.66	0.08	0	-5	5	17.9	16.8	1.09	13.7	14.4	-0.67
Eric Williams	42	42	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.06	0	-5	5	16.5	17.6	-1.13	13.9	14.5	-0.57
Jerome Moiso	6	6	0.01	-0.51	0.51	0.01	0	-5	5	13.7	17.3	-3.64	13.5	14.3	-0.79
Bryant Stith	80	79	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.38	2	-7	9	17.4	14.5	2.95	14.2	14.8	-0.62
Antoine Walker	86	86	-0.51	0.01	-0.51	-0.36	-5	0	-5	17.3	13.7	3.64	14.3	13.5	0.79
Randy Brown	71	70	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.43	-5	0	-5	16.8	17.9	-1.09	14.4	13.7	0.67
Mark Blount	46	44	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.41	-7	2	-9	16.6	17.5	-0.91	14.7	13.8	0.85
Paul Pierce	62	63	-0.74	0.24	-0.98	-0.39	-12	7	-19	17.0	17.2	-0.25	14.6	13.6	1.00

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hedo Turkoglu	51	52	0.71	-0.21	0.91	0.38	11	-6	17	13.8	14.7	-0.89	17.3	16.7	0.60
Chris Webber	73	74	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.42	6	-1	7	14.5	13.3	1.16	17.1	16.9	0.22
Peja Stojakovic	87	85	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.27	10	-5	15	14.2	14.4	-0.17	16.9	18.6	-1.63
Vlade Divac	82	80	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.38	5	0	5	14.3	13.5	0.83	17.1	16.6	0.55
Jason Williams	70	70	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.35	5	0	5	14.0	15.0	-1.06	16.2	19.7	-3.50
Bobby Jackson	22	22	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	5	-5	15.0	14.0	1.06	19.7	16.2	3.50
Jon Barry	51	52	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	-0.00	-5	10	-15	14.4	14.0	0.39	16.5	17.7	-1.21
Scot Pollard	24	25	-0.24	0.74	-0.99	-0.04	-7	12	-19	13.7	14.4	-0.72	17.7	16.8	0.84

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.6,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.55,0.47,0.54,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.64,0.6,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.73,0.63,0.52,0.54,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.59,0.38,0.48,0.67,0.6,0.42,0.48,0.53,0.38,0.37,0.41,0.35,0.18,0.38,0.28,0.78,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 92, WAS 97	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.65,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.67,0.63,0.6,0.63,0.67,0.78,0.73,0.71,0.62,0.75,0.7,0.71,0.52,0.38,0.48,0.57,0.47,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.4,0.31,0.45,0.76,0.85,1	90.9%
BOS 99, MIL 104	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.53,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.54,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.58,0.65,0.7,0.68,0.64,0.71,0.7,0.7,0.67,0.69,0.58,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.51,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.46,0.34,0.29,0.42,0.47,0.41,0.41,0.27,0.52,0.45,0.91,0.99,1	90.5%
HOU 104, MIA 113	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.59,0.6,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.65,0.67,0.72,0.77,0.64,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.54,0.63,0.55,0.61,0.55,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.34,0.4,0.38,0.64,0.91,0.99,1	90.4%