NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	96		Excitement	5.7 [657]		MVP	Wally Szczerbiak (MIN): +11.8%
Minnesota Timberwolves	106		Comeback	1.9 [811]		LVP	Matt Bullard (HOU): -7.6%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Cuttino Mobley	0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	-0.00	18	58%	0.04	0	0.00	16	87%	0.05
Steve Francis	0.03	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	-0.00	-0.03	17	51%	0.06	1	-0.03	5	80%	0.00
Kenny Thomas	-0.00	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0	0.00	-0.01	-0.01	7	60%	0.02	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.02
Maurice Taylor	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	10	55%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Walt Williams	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	6	25%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shandon Anderson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	6	36%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.02
Carlos Rogers	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	2	62%	-0.01	2	-0.07	4	75%	-0.01
Moochie Norris	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.10	-0.01	-0.03	6	43%	-0.02	4	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Matt Bullard	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	5	30%	-0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wally Szczerbiak	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.06	0.04	-0.03	13	63%	0.14	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.04	-0.02	12	59%	0.10	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.02
Terrell Brandon	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.02	-0.05	18	49%	0.08	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Anthony Peeler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.02	0.00	6	75%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.01	4	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LaPhonso Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	8	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Reggie Slater	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	3	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.08,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	0.01	0.01	15	54%	0.01	3	-0.06	9	78%	0.01
Sam Mitchell	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	3	50%	-0.02	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.7	2.5	26.6	18.3	27.5	1.8	33.0	135.4
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIN +40.8%

HOU -9.4%

MIN +7.8%

MIN +10.3%

MIN +0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	MIN	NBA	HOU	MIN	NBA
this game	16.6	14.7	15.5	104.3	115.2	100.9
season	16.3	15.0		104.6	102.9
opponent	15.9	14.9		101.7	102.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	17.8	18.2	15.1	15.5	16.6
MIN	14.1	13.9	14.9	15.8	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shandon Anderson	44	44	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.14	2	-12	14	17.0	16.2	0.79	14.2	15.2	-0.98
Carlos Rogers	28	28	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.02	-3	-7	4	16.2	16.8	-0.62	15.4	14.4	1.00
Kenny Thomas	72	71	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.14	-3	-7	4	16.3	17.8	-1.59	14.8	14.2	0.59
Cuttino Mobley	67	66	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.11	-5	-5	0	16.5	16.9	-0.43	14.8	14.5	0.27
Steve Francis	67	67	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.15	-4	-6	2	16.0	18.2	-2.13	15.0	14.0	0.96
Matt Bullard	40	40	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.14	-5	-5	0	15.7	17.3	-1.65	15.3	14.2	1.07
Walt Williams	35	35	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.00	-11	1	-12	16.7	16.6	0.12	14.8	14.6	0.21
Maurice Taylor	57	58	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.18	-10	0	-10	17.5	15.1	2.46	14.1	15.7	-1.65
Moochie Norris	50	51	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.16	-11	1	-12	17.5	15.5	2.04	14.3	15.2	-0.99

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Terrell Brandon	70	68	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.20	11	-1	12	14.6	15.1	-0.58	17.1	15.3	1.73
Wally Szczerbiak	71	71	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.16	11	-1	12	14.7	14.8	-0.15	16.7	16.1	0.60
Kevin Garnett	68	67	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.23	6	4	2	14.4	15.5	-1.14	17.7	13.6	4.08
Chauncey Billups	61	61	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.12	9	1	8	14.9	14.3	0.66	15.7	18.4	-2.73
LaPhonso Ellis	49	47	0.27	0.23	0.03	-0.12	13	-3	16	14.4	15.0	-0.53	15.7	17.5	-1.81
Anthony Peeler	44	45	0.22	0.28	-0.05	-0.01	8	2	6	14.5	14.9	-0.33	16.7	16.5	0.20
Reggie Slater	23	24	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.10	3	7	-4	15.8	14.3	1.51	16.2	16.8	-0.60
Rasho Nesterovic	33	33	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.13	0	10	-10	14.5	14.8	-0.38	16.9	16.5	0.42
Sam Mitchell	41	44	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.21	-11	21	-32	15.2	14.3	0.90	16.2	17.0	-0.86

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.41,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.65,0.66,0.72,0.61,0.64,0.65,0.68,0.79,0.73,0.83,0.79,0.78,0.7,0.7,0.8,0.9,0.83,0.88,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 90, IND 101	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.36,0.32,0.33,0.35,0.33,0.36,0.37,0.35,0.4,0.36,0.45,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.44,0.46,0.54,0.61,0.59,0.5,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.62,0.81,0.82,0.86,0.87,0.85,0.82,0.7,0.83,0.93,0.94,0.94,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.7%
PHI 81, CHI 91	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.5,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.36,0.37,0.4,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.46,0.52,0.44,0.39,0.46,0.44,0.54,0.54,0.6,0.63,0.67,0.7,0.64,0.68,0.62,0.69,0.76,0.74,0.68,0.74,0.78,0.82,0.8,0.85,0.89,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.97,1,1,1	94.4%
NOK 86, UTA 96	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.47,0.41,0.41,0.43,0.38,0.34,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.37,0.32,0.36,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.54,0.6,0.69,0.55,0.65,0.65,0.68,0.82,0.82,0.83,0.82,0.87,0.84,0.82,0.83,0.85,0.87,0.88,0.9,1,1,1,1,1	94.3%