NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	94		Excitement	9.5 [79]		MVP	Vince Carter (TOR): +41.6%
Denver Nuggets	93		Comeback	7.9 [109]		LVP	Nick Van Exel (DEN): -24.7%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vince Carter	0.42	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.17,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.11,0.42	-0.03	0.43	-0.02	27	45%	0.50	2	-0.09	1	100%	0.00
Charles Oakley	0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.00	0.07	-0.01	11	45%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corliss Williamson	0.04	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	-0.01	-0.03	14	57%	0.12	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Dell Curry	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	4	75%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alvin Williams	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	7	56%	0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.11
Kevin Willis	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.03	-0.00	6	62%	0.06	1	-0.08	4	100%	0.03
Morris Peterson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Jackson	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.02	-0.09	0.01	11	46%	-0.09	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Antonio Davis	-0.16	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	7	33%	-0.13	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.41	0.41	0.05	0.36	-0.00	13	54%	0.41	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0	0.00	0.05	-0.05	-0.00	15	58%	0.05	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Ryan Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mark Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.03	0.01	8	43%	-0.02	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.03
Antonio McDyess	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.13,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	0.01	-0.01	20	45%	-0.02	1	-0.03	9	67%	-0.05
Keon Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	3	33%	-0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
George McCloud	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.2,0.2,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.12,-0.15	-0.15	0.06	-0.21	-0.00	11	64%	0.12	1	-0.27	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.09,-0.09,-0.25	-0.25	-0.15	-0.11	-0.01	15	36%	-0.17	4	-0.08	3	67%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.6	2.3	24.6	15.7	25.2	2.5	30.4	122.3
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +3.8%

TOR +21.5%

TOR +11.6%

TOR +15.7%

DEN -2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	DEN	NBA	TOR	DEN	NBA
this game	15.8	15.7	15.5	102.2	102.2	100.9
season	15.8	15.2		103.7	101.4
opponent	15.2	15.4		104.1	101.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	15.0	15.1	16.6	16.6	15.8
DEN	15.0	16.2	15.4	16.1	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mark Jackson	74	73	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.43	5	-4	9	16.1	14.7	1.33	15.5	16.3	-0.81
Alvin Williams	38	38	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.57	-1	2	-3	15.2	16.2	-0.99	16.2	15.3	0.82
Charles Oakley	72	71	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.53	-2	3	-5	15.9	15.3	0.57	15.5	16.5	-1.05
Vince Carter	82	82	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.46	-1	2	-3	16.0	14.2	1.79	15.6	16.0	-0.35
Antonio Davis	67	66	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.45	-2	3	-5	15.4	17.0	-1.60	15.3	16.8	-1.49
Kevin Willis	45	45	0.13	0.37	-0.23	-0.04	6	-5	11	16.2	15.4	0.88	16.6	14.7	1.91
Morris Peterson	13	12	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.01	2	-1	3	13.9	16.1	-2.18	16.1	15.6	0.46
Dell Curry	14	14	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.00	-1	2	-3	15.0	15.9	-0.94	16.1	15.6	0.55
Corliss Williamson	55	54	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	-0.06	-1	2	-3	16.2	15.2	1.01	15.4	16.1	-0.67

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ryan Bowen	16	16	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	0.01	-1	0	-1	16.4	15.5	0.92	15.4	15.9	-0.43
James Posey	61	60	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.06	1	-2	3	16.1	14.8	1.27	15.4	16.4	-0.99
Mark Strickland	6	6	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.01	-2	1	-3	18.8	15.5	3.37	15.8	15.8	0.04
Antonio McDyess	79	80	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.44	9	-10	19	15.1	19.8	-4.78	16.1	13.9	2.16
Voshon Lenard	62	64	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.37	2	-3	5	14.8	17.6	-2.75	16.1	15.0	1.14
Raef LaFrentz	73	72	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.44	4	-5	9	15.4	17.0	-1.64	15.8	15.8	-0.01
Nick Van Exel	81	82	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.50	3	-4	7	15.5	16.9	-1.37	16.1	13.6	2.46
Keon Clark	24	26	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.05	-13	12	-25	18.0	14.9	3.09	14.9	16.1	-1.21
George McCloud	53	54	-0.74	0.24	-0.98	-0.51	-8	7	-15	16.2	14.9	1.31	15.5	16.3	-0.80

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.65,0.61,0.61,0.62,0.6,0.54,0.6,0.56,0.62,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.51,0.51,0.62,0.68,0.66,0.67,0.61,0.68,0.68,0.81,0.7,0.6,0.52,0.66,0.66,0.57,0.47,0.49,0.36,0.53,0.61,0.61,0.72,0.75,0.58,0
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 91, TOR 88	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.63,0.63,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.51,0.6,0.55,0.52,0.61,0.73,0.79,0.71,0.72,0.56,0.56,0.48,0.54,0.43,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.63,0.85,0.58,0	91.8%
LAL 88, CHA 85	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.57,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.52,0.63,0.67,0.64,0.64,0.71,0.77,0.72,0.69,0.63,0.72,0.66,0.7,0.67,0.52,0.47,0.53,0.59,0.78,0.86,0.85,0.76,0.74,0	91.2%
HOU 97, TOR 95	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.56,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.59,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.7,0.7,0.63,0.54,0.61,0.58,0.64,0.77,0.72,0.75,0.69,0.78,0.75,0.74,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.41,0.41,0.54,0.61,0.84,0.78,0.58,0	90.9%