NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	114		Excitement	10.9 [22]		MVP	CJ McCollum (WAS): +50.2%
Milwaukee Bucks	113		Comeback	8.5 [48]		LVP	Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL): -30.6%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
CJ McCollum	0.50	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.15,0.5	0.05	0.48	0.03	15	56%	0.52	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Bub Carrington	0.29	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.19,0.27,0.31,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.10	0.19	-0.00	14	69%	0.35	2	-0.06	1	0%	-0.02
Marvin Bagley III	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.05	0.05	0.00	6	69%	0.14	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Justin Champagnie	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.03	0.00	9	60%	0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
AJ Johnson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.01	-0.00	5	80%	0.06	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Will Riley	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alex Sarr	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0.02,0.05,0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.05,-0.05	0.03	-0.08	-0.00	15	56%	-0.00	2	-0.04	6	83%	-0.01
Bilal Coulibaly	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	8	42%	-0.04	1	-0.01	8	62%	-0.04
Khris Middleton	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.04	-0.01	6	0%	-0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tre Johnson	-0.23	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.23	0.03	-0.24	0.02	13	54%	-0.16	1	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bobby Portis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.05	0.11	-0.00	11	54%	0.17	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Gary Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.01	0.00	2	125%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Rollins	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.13,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.06	0.01	13	57%	0.22	3	-0.15	2	100%	0.01
Myles Turner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.07	-0.04	0.03	10	59%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.08
Kyle Kuzma	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0.05,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	3	62%	0.07	3	-0.11	2	50%	-0.01
AJ Green	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.07	-0.07	0.04	-0.11	-0.00	8	56%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Trent Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	4	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Porter Jr.	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09	-0.09	0.01	-0.10	-0.00	17	56%	-0.01	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.04,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.31	-0.31	0.04	-0.32	0.02	21	59%	-0.09	6	-0.22	14	64%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.6	2.5	30.4	14.3	25.2	1.5	33.2	132.8
league avg	26.3	2.1	28.8	14.5	29.5	2.3	32.7	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +65.2%

MIL -10.9%

MIL -38.3%

WAS +27.6%

WAS +6.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	MIL	NBA	WAS	MIL	NBA
this game	14.6	14.6	14.1	116.3	114.1	113.9
season	13.8	14.5		109.4	112.0
opponent	14.2	14.2		115.3	120.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	13.4	14.0	15.7	15.5	14.6
MIL	13.1	15.4	15.7	14.5	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Khris Middleton	76	76	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.54	2	-1	3	14.6	14.4	0.24	14.8	14.1	0.69
Bilal Coulibaly	62	63	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.32	8	-7	15	14.0	15.7	-1.70	15.3	13.4	1.97
Alex Sarr	81	83	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.49	2	-1	3	14.7	14.3	0.36	14.7	14.0	0.73
CJ McCollum	88	89	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.54	-5	6	-11	14.6	14.4	0.21	14.4	16.6	-2.21
Tre Johnson	81	83	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.33	2	-1	3	14.7	14.3	0.36	14.7	14.0	0.73
Justin Champagnie	98	99	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.31	1	0	1	14.6	0.0	14.59	14.6	0.0	14.62
Bub Carrington	84	84	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.34	-1	2	-3	14.4	16.0	-1.64	14.6	14.5	0.18
AJ Johnson	68	67	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.17	1	0	1	14.1	15.7	-1.65	14.6	14.7	-0.11
Marvin Bagley III	73	73	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.07	0	1	-1	14.4	15.3	-0.92	14.9	13.9	0.99
Will Riley	58	58	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	0.05	-5	6	-11	14.2	15.1	-0.86	14.5	14.8	-0.32

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gary Harris	58	59	0.03	-0.53	0.55	-0.06	3	-4	7	14.5	14.7	-0.20	14.0	15.5	-1.57
Bobby Portis	78	78	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.17	-1	0	-1	14.9	13.7	1.14	14.4	15.1	-0.70
Myles Turner	89	88	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.38	5	-6	11	14.4	16.6	-2.21	14.6	14.4	0.21
Kyle Kuzma	99	98	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.31	-1	0	-1	14.6	0.0	14.62	14.6	0.0	14.59
Gary Trent Jr.	59	58	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.17	-9	8	-17	14.6	14.6	-0.01	13.7	15.8	-2.08
AJ Green	88	86	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.53	2	-3	5	14.4	16.1	-1.66	14.5	15.1	-0.56
Ryan Rollins	88	86	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.53	2	-3	5	14.4	16.1	-1.66	14.5	15.1	-0.56
Kevin Porter Jr.	99	98	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.47	-1	0	-1	14.6	0.0	14.62	14.6	0.0	14.59
Giannis Antetokounmpo	69	70	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.57	-3	2	-5	14.9	14.0	0.93	14.4	15.1	-0.77

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.65,0.62,0.57,0.59,0.61,0.65,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.33,0.31,0.46,0.46,0.52,0.49,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.6,0.52,0.58,0.43,0.25,0.24,0.12,0.21,0.24,0.33,0.32,0.21,0.43,0.74,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 109, NYK 103	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.59,0.57,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.6,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.36,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.58,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.48,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.25,0.28,0.19,0.21,0.24,0.27,0.19,0.28,0.16,0.42,0	91.1%
ORL 107, MIA 104	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.61,0.63,0.58,0.48,0.53,0.58,0.55,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.46,0.39,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.5,0.42,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.5,0.3,0.18,0.17,0.12,0.21,0.24,0.17,0.19,0.28,0.43,0.42,0	90.4%
BKN 96, MIA 95	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.59,0.57,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.5,0.49,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.39,0.46,0.5,0.46,0.43,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.42,0.41,0.52,0.41,0.44,0.33,0.42,0.38,0.29,0.28,0.23,0.21,0.19,0.27,0.38,0.22,0.43,0.28,0	90.0%