NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	95		Excitement	5.3 [718]		MVP	Stephen Curry (GSW): +20.9%
Houston Rockets	85		Comeback	1.9 [485]		LVP	Jalen Green (HOU): -19.6%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephen Curry	0.21	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.25,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.16	0.08	0.03	19	77%	0.32	4	-0.11	2	100%	0.00
Moses Moody	0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.01	0.07	-0.01	5	58%	0.12	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Gary Payton II	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.03	-0.01	6	58%	0.06	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Gui Santos	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	1	125%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jimmy Butler III	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0	0.07	-0.00	0.07	19	57%	0.02	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.01
Buddy Hield	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	4	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevon Looney	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandin Podziemski	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.02	13	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.03
Draymond Green	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	5	40%	0.00	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Quinten Post	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alperen Sengun	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.02	0.01	18	65%	0.12	5	-0.07	4	75%	0.00
Jabari Smith Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.01	0.00	3	110%	0.17	4	-0.13	4	100%	0.03
Dillon Brooks	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.03	0.01	0.04	9	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Steven Adams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.01	4	60%	0.04	1	-0.05	2	0%	-0.04
Amen Thompson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	0.01	-0.00	9	36%	-0.01	2	-0.05	4	0%	-0.05
Tari Eason	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.03	0.01	10	30%	-0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Fred VanVleet	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.2,-0.2,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.16	-0.02	-0.03	19	26%	-0.10	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Green	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,-0.09,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.15	-0.05	0.00	15	22%	-0.17	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	3.4	28.3	16.5	32.5	3.3	30.4	140.5
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.1	14.9	28.5	2.3	32.1	134.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +50.4%

GSW +5.5%

HOU -21.5%

GSW +13.5%

GSW +2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	HOU	NBA	GSW	HOU	NBA
this game	15.6	16.6	14.4	105.6	95.5	113.1
season	14.4	14.7		113.5	114.0
opponent	14.2	14.4		109.6	110.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	14.8	13.7	17.7	16.5	15.6
HOU	14.6	17.6	18.3	16.2	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brandin Podziemski	67	63	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.03	17	-7	24	16.3	13.6	2.73	15.8	18.4	-2.60
Jimmy Butler III	77	77	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.11	14	-4	18	16.0	13.2	2.86	16.8	15.0	1.83
Draymond Green	70	68	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.20	4	6	-2	16.1	13.7	2.38	16.4	17.3	-0.98
Moses Moody	54	51	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.14	6	4	2	15.9	15.1	0.77	15.7	17.8	-2.10
Stephen Curry	75	74	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.19	3	7	-4	16.0	13.4	2.64	16.3	17.8	-1.46
Buddy Hield	26	27	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.03	7	3	4	14.8	15.9	-1.11	19.3	15.4	3.89
Kevon Looney	14	15	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.08	4	6	-2	14.3	15.8	-1.56	17.5	16.4	1.14
Quinten Post	24	26	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.01	4	6	-2	13.8	16.3	-2.47	16.2	16.8	-0.61
Gui Santos	13	11	0.02	0.48	-0.45	-0.00	1	9	-8	14.3	15.8	-1.51	16.8	16.6	0.27
Gary Payton II	30	33	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.25	-10	20	-30	13.4	16.7	-3.30	17.5	16.1	1.43

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steven Adams	38	36	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.09	4	-14	18	16.6	16.5	0.08	15.0	16.0	-0.95
Jalen Green	58	60	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.07	-5	-5	0	15.8	18.1	-2.32	15.9	14.9	1.00
Tari Eason	39	38	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.14	-4	-6	2	17.1	16.2	0.92	14.7	16.3	-1.63
Fred VanVleet	73	75	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.26	-3	-7	4	16.2	18.5	-2.34	16.0	13.7	2.24
Jabari Smith Jr.	46	45	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.21	-6	-4	-2	17.5	15.6	1.90	14.7	16.5	-1.82
Dillon Brooks	62	65	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.02	-13	3	-16	16.5	16.9	-0.44	15.9	14.9	1.00
Alperen Sengun	67	68	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.22	-7	-3	-4	16.9	15.5	1.44	15.6	15.6	0.01
Amen Thompson	62	63	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.01	-16	6	-22	16.5	16.7	-0.12	16.1	14.4	1.65

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.6,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.63,0.57,0.59,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.47,0.47,0.37,0.28,0.29,0.34,0.39,0.33,0.28,0.16,0.16,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.15,0.19,0.14,0.24,0.23,0.26,0.24,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 129, HOU 113	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.5,0.62,0.61,0.63,0.64,0.66,0.54,0.57,0.51,0.42,0.47,0.42,0.34,0.3,0.26,0.29,0.25,0.18,0.18,0.09,0.12,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.12,0.07,0.15,0.08,0.12,0.09,0.19,0.21,0.06,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0	93.8%
SAS 99, DEN 91	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.58,0.51,0.59,0.61,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.36,0.34,0.22,0.23,0.3,0.2,0.17,0.16,0.13,0.11,0.1,0.09,0.12,0.06,0.07,0.17,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.08,0.12,0.17,0.15,0.1,0.14,0.08,0,0,0	93.0%
NYK 117, ATL 108	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.47,0.5,0.48,0.57,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.43,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.37,0.39,0.29,0.34,0.31,0.23,0.2,0.14,0.19,0.14,0.13,0.11,0.16,0.09,0.12,0.08,0.15,0.1,0.09,0.19,0.13,0.12,0.2,0.19,0.36,0.24,0.17,0.24,0.07,0,0,0	93.0%