NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	112		Excitement	8.5 [215]		MVP	Saddiq Bey (NOP): +17.3%
New Orleans Pelicans	108		Comeback	8.5 [253]		LVP	Jordan Hawkins (NOP): -23.7%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Desmond Bane	0.12	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.17,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12	0.07	0.07	0.02	19	55%	0.17	2	-0.05	11	73%	0.01
Wendell Carter Jr.	0.10	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.13,0.1,0.1	0.06	0.05	0.02	7	72%	0.12	1	-0.03	4	25%	-0.09
Jevon Carter	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.03	-0.00	9	61%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paolo Banchero	0.00	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.13,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,0,0,0	-0.03	0.02	-0.01	14	53%	0.19	5	-0.18	15	73%	0.02
Goga Bitadze	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.00	4	75%	0.05	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Suggs	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.2,-0.21,-0.21,-0.23,-0.23,-0.18,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.11	0.06	-0.01	19	29%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Cain	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.02	-0.05	0.00	7	50%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tristan da Silva	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Franz Wagner	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08	-0.01	-0.06	0.01	10	46%	-0.08	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Saddiq Bey	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.2,0.23,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.10	0.07	0.00	24	54%	0.20	1	-0.02	11	82%	0.02
Trey Alexander	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.06	-0.00	4	62%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Herbert Jones	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	4	62%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Yves Missi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.10	-0.07	0.02	9	82%	0.17	3	-0.15	4	50%	-0.02
Zion Williamson	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0	-0.00	0.04	-0.04	0.01	11	55%	0.08	1	-0.08	9	78%	-0.02
Jeremiah Fears	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	0.02	14	49%	0.04	3	-0.07	11	82%	0.04
Hunter Dickinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Derik Queen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Micah Peavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	6	25%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Hawkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.22,-0.22,-0.24	-0.24	-0.06	-0.17	0.01	7	47%	-0.02	3	-0.22	1	100%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.4	2.3	30.6	13.8	28.4	2.4	40.2	145.2
league avg	26.4	1.9	29.1	14.2	29.7	2.2	32.8	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +3.3%

NOP -4.0%

ORL +23.9%

ORL +26.0%

ORL +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	NOP	NBA	ORL	NOP	NBA
this game	13.1	14.0	14.2	105.7	101.9	113.7
season	14.2	14.1		113.2	111.9
opponent	14.1	14.1		116.3	112.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	14.5	13.2	11.7	13.1	13.1
NOP	13.2	12.5	15.0	15.7	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Franz Wagner	98	98	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.41	9	-5	14	13.5	8.6	4.88	14.2	11.6	2.61
Desmond Bane	105	104	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.40	4	0	4	13.3	0.0	13.26	14.3	2.5	11.76
Jamal Cain	80	80	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.14	12	-8	20	13.6	11.6	2.06	15.2	10.5	4.64
Wendell Carter Jr.	97	97	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.45	-2	6	-8	12.8	16.7	-3.86	14.2	12.2	1.98
Jalen Suggs	89	89	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.47	-3	7	-10	13.0	13.7	-0.68	14.3	12.5	1.87
Paolo Banchero	100	99	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.48	-5	9	-14	13.2	12.2	1.02	14.0	14.0	0.04
Goga Bitadze	74	75	0.04	0.46	-0.41	-0.04	3	1	2	13.9	11.4	2.43	14.4	13.2	1.19
Jevon Carter	81	80	-0.18	0.68	-0.85	-0.09	-3	7	-10	13.9	10.6	3.31	14.1	14.0	0.10
Tristan da Silva	54	52	-0.36	0.86	-1.22	-0.01	-12	16	-28	14.3	11.9	2.45	14.0	14.1	-0.15

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Herbert Jones	19	20	0.15	-0.65	0.80	-0.08	8	-12	20	12.8	14.3	-1.46	15.2	12.6	2.61
Hunter Dickinson	46	48	0.11	-0.61	0.72	0.02	3	-7	10	14.9	13.4	1.55	13.5	12.8	0.67
Trey Alexander	45	45	0.08	-0.58	0.65	0.14	-2	-2	0	15.3	13.1	2.21	12.9	13.3	-0.42
Derik Queen	59	60	0.05	-0.55	0.59	0.08	-1	-3	2	14.3	13.8	0.49	13.5	12.6	0.92
Saddiq Bey	94	95	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.45	4	-8	12	14.2	12.6	1.64	13.4	11.0	2.38
Yves Missi	98	100	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.43	1	-5	6	14.5	8.5	5.99	13.4	7.8	5.62
Jeremiah Fears	99	99	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.39	-1	-3	2	14.1	13.6	0.50	13.3	10.9	2.44
Jordan Hawkins	80	80	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.40	-3	-1	-2	14.3	13.2	1.17	12.7	14.5	-1.86
Zion Williamson	106	106	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.38	-4	0	-4	14.0	0.0	14.04	13.1	0.0	13.13
Micah Peavy	92	91	-0.72	0.22	-0.95	-0.40	-11	7	-18	14.8	9.1	5.64	13.8	8.9	4.97

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.57,0.59,0.65,0.6,0.56,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.56,0.61,0.7,0.73,0.81,0.82,0.79,0.89,0.81,0.79,0.72,0.79,0.8,0.77,0.68,0.78,0.78,0.86,0.83,0.85,0.83,0.6,0.4,0.31,0.36,0.16,0.05,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 95, HOU 93	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.53,0.63,0.64,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.75,0.9,0.79,0.8,0.86,0.83,0.8,0.83,0.7,0.81,0.82,0.8,0.73,0.69,0.6,0.53,0.61,0.29,0.16,0.09,0	91.0%
BOS 99, DAL 92	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.56,0.59,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.58,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.69,0.7,0.73,0.8,0.77,0.72,0.73,0.83,0.84,0.89,0.78,0.72,0.7,0.8,0.75,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.67,0.68,0.69,0.65,0.39,0.38,0.28,0.24,0.15,0	90.6%
DAL 105, PHX 98	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.48,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.59,0.63,0.68,0.74,0.75,0.83,0.81,0.87,0.83,0.69,0.8,0.86,0.9,0.9,0.93,0.9,0.89,0.85,0.74,0.53,0.39,0.32,0.15,0.03,0.02,0	90.4%