NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	99		Excitement	7.4 [343]		MVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): +51.7%
Dallas Mavericks	92		Comeback	11.7 [135]		LVP	Kendrick Perkins (BOS): -16.3%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Pierce	0.52	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.18,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.42,0.52	0.11	0.42	0.00	20	57%	0.57	2	-0.05	14	93%	0.13
Ray Allen	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.01,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08	0.04	0.04	-0.01	12	62%	0.15	3	-0.06	8	100%	0.05
Eddie House	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	0.00	0.02	4	70%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Glen Davis	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	0.00	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	13	57%	0.10	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
Gabe Pruitt	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Leon Powe	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.04	-0.01	6	33%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.21,-0.21,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.03	-0.05	0.01	14	63%	0.15	6	-0.25	2	50%	-0.02
Kendrick Perkins	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.12	-0.05	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	4	-0.13	0	0%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antoine Wright	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.03	0.06	-0.03	10	50%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.11,0.18,0.16,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.01,0.01,-0.05,0.12,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.02	-0.03	28	54%	0.26	3	-0.17	12	75%	-0.02
Brandon Bass	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.06	0.00	4	67%	0.10	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.04
Jose Juan Barea	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.04	0.00	5	70%	0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Matt Carroll	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.00	3	75%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Erick Dampier	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	3	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Devean George	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Howard	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.06	-0.02	19	40%	-0.06	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.03
Jason Kidd	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13	-0.13	-0.09	-0.05	-0.01	8	19%	-0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.8	3.5	34.4	20.4	31.5	3.4	43.5	163.5
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +23.3%

BOS +25.4%

BOS +33.1%

DAL -34.5%

BOS +2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	DAL	NBA	BOS	DAL	NBA
this game	15.2	15.4	15.5	104.2	98.9	106.4
season	15.8	15.6		108.3	108.9
opponent	15.4	15.6		107.1	101.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	16.6	16.6	14.0	13.8	15.2
DAL	15.4	13.4	15.3	17.7	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rajon Rondo	87	86	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.26	10	-3	13	14.9	18.5	-3.58	15.6	13.7	1.84
Leon Powe	41	39	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.40	4	3	1	15.9	14.7	1.20	16.6	14.6	2.02
Paul Pierce	87	86	0.47	0.04	0.43	0.29	6	1	5	14.7	20.4	-5.63	15.5	14.9	0.61
Eddie House	29	27	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.12	7	0	7	14.5	15.5	-1.06	15.7	15.3	0.45
Glen Davis	30	29	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.10	7	0	7	15.7	15.0	0.65	17.3	14.6	2.75
Kevin Garnett	62	62	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.24	2	5	-3	15.2	15.2	-0.03	15.0	16.3	-1.35
Ray Allen	71	69	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.11	3	4	-1	15.1	15.7	-0.65	14.9	17.0	-2.07
Gabe Pruitt	14	13	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.02	-1	8	-9	20.1	14.4	5.69	15.0	15.5	-0.49
Kendrick Perkins	54	54	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	-0.08	-3	10	-13	15.1	15.4	-0.34	14.4	16.8	-2.41

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Matt Carroll	35	36	0.06	-0.56	0.61	0.08	-1	-6	5	14.5	15.9	-1.41	15.5	15.1	0.45
Brandon Bass	34	34	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	0.08	-5	-2	-3	15.2	15.5	-0.29	16.2	14.7	1.53
Josh Howard	63	67	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.20	2	-9	11	15.3	15.7	-0.46	15.2	15.4	-0.19
Antoine Wright	60	61	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.18	-2	-5	3	15.3	15.7	-0.43	14.8	16.0	-1.17
Devean George	20	20	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.12	-7	0	-7	16.3	15.2	1.19	14.2	15.5	-1.23
Jose Juan Barea	21	19	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.17	-6	-1	-5	17.1	14.9	2.16	16.5	14.9	1.57
Dirk Nowitzki	79	79	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.40	0	-7	7	15.3	16.1	-0.85	14.6	18.2	-3.64
Erick Dampier	73	76	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.31	-7	0	-7	15.6	14.6	1.04	15.5	14.0	1.53
Jason Kidd	80	83	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.27	-9	2	-11	15.4	15.8	-0.41	15.3	14.7	0.63

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.56,0.59,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.58,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.69,0.7,0.73,0.8,0.77,0.72,0.73,0.83,0.84,0.89,0.78,0.72,0.7,0.8,0.75,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.67,0.68,0.69,0.65,0.39,0.38,0.28,0.24,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 90, GSW 82	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.59,0.53,0.6,0.64,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.63,0.61,0.66,0.75,0.79,0.86,0.86,0.87,0.84,0.85,0.85,0.9,0.91,0.88,0.81,0.77,0.81,0.79,0.7,0.66,0.75,0.67,0.68,0.64,0.65,0.53,0.38,0.29,0.31,0.04,0	93.5%
PHX 115, DAL 107	0.5,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.63,0.59,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.68,0.65,0.6,0.51,0.59,0.62,0.58,0.47,0.54,0.59,0.64,0.7,0.64,0.8,0.77,0.77,0.73,0.78,0.81,0.84,0.81,0.76,0.79,0.84,0.85,0.81,0.74,0.75,0.79,0.77,0.53,0.51,0.66,0.39,0.28,0.06,0.15,0	92.6%
MIN 94, SAC 86	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.74,0.66,0.7,0.75,0.76,0.8,0.71,0.69,0.77,0.74,0.75,0.81,0.7,0.57,0.62,0.53,0.47,0.46,0.4,0.32,0.29,0.24,0.02,0	92.3%