NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	103		Excitement	4.0 [992]		MVP	Stephen Curry (GSW): +12.4%
Boston Celtics	90		Comeback	2.2 [306]		LVP	Klay Thompson (GSW): -9.3%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephen Curry	0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.22	0.00	0.09	21	74%	0.16	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.00
Jordan Poole	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.01	-0.02	12	58%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Otto Porter Jr.	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.00	0.01	3	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Draymond Green	0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.06	10	60%	0.09	5	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Wiggins	0.01	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	18	50%	0.06	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Gary Payton II	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	6	43%	0.01	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Andre Iguodala	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevon Looney	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Klay Thompson	-0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.16	-0.00	-0.07	20	30%	-0.07	3	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Horford	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.15	0.01	0.04	8	100%	0.17	3	-0.05	3	100%	0.01
Juwan Morgan	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nik Stauskas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sam Hauser	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Nesmith	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Kornet	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Grant Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	60%	0.02	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Robert Williams III	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	8	56%	0.02	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Payton Pritchard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Smart	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.09	-0.00	-0.02	12	37%	-0.01	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Derrick White	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	0.00	6	17%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jayson Tatum	0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.15	-0.00	-0.07	18	36%	0.00	5	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	3.6	31.2	15.7	31.1	3.5	29.2	140.7
league avg	25.6	2.3	28.1	14.7	28.0	2.3	32.3	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +26.8%

BOS -5.6%

GSW +8.3%

GSW +20.4%

GSW +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	BOS	NBA	GSW	BOS	NBA
this game	15.5	15.2	14.5	108.4	96.8	110.8
season	14.2	14.9		112.2	112.2
opponent	14.7	14.9		105.7	106.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	14.8	13.8	16.3	17.2	15.5
BOS	16.5	14.5	15.0	14.8	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Draymond Green	79	78	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.04	16	-3	19	15.5	14.9	0.53	15.6	14.1	1.56
Gary Payton II	40	40	0.46	0.04	0.41	-0.07	18	-5	23	14.0	16.4	-2.42	15.4	15.4	-0.02
Stephen Curry	79	75	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.14	8	5	3	14.9	17.9	-3.00	15.2	16.5	-1.32
Andrew Wiggins	84	84	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.22	5	8	-3	15.6	13.2	2.38	15.5	14.7	0.82
Jordan Poole	34	31	0.30	0.20	0.10	-0.02	11	2	9	15.3	15.4	-0.18	16.0	15.2	0.82
Klay Thompson	81	78	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.17	4	9	-5	15.6	13.7	1.96	15.1	17.7	-2.58
Kevon Looney	40	40	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.16	0	13	-13	16.0	14.9	1.14	15.4	15.4	0.03
Otto Porter Jr.	28	24	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.05	3	10	-7	16.2	15.0	1.15	15.7	15.3	0.32

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luke Kornet	0	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-11	9	0.0	15.4	-15.43	2.0	15.5	-13.52
Nik Stauskas	0	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-11	9	0.0	15.4	-15.43	2.0	15.5	-13.52
Aaron Nesmith	0	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-11	9	0.0	15.4	-15.43	2.0	15.5	-13.52
Sam Hauser	3	3	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-11	9	7.7	15.4	-7.77	13.3	15.5	-2.19
Marcus Smart	73	75	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.30	7	-20	27	14.8	18.1	-3.24	16.1	12.2	3.98
Al Horford	76	77	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.28	2	-15	17	14.9	18.1	-3.12	16.0	12.4	3.55
Robert Williams III	61	65	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.27	-1	-12	11	15.9	14.4	1.45	15.3	15.5	-0.13
Jayson Tatum	77	80	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.30	-2	-11	9	15.3	16.3	-1.02	15.7	13.4	2.32
Payton Pritchard	16	15	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	0.22	-20	7	-27	17.8	14.9	2.89	13.0	15.8	-2.83
Grant Williams	32	30	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	0.10	-18	5	-23	15.6	15.3	0.30	14.8	15.7	-0.85
Derrick White	31	32	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	0.25	-26	13	-39	17.2	14.5	2.64	13.7	16.2	-2.53

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.5,0.57,0.66,0.69,0.63,0.64,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.59,0.51,0.37,0.3,0.2,0.27,0.31,0.29,0.25,0.23,0.18,0.14,0.07,0.1,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.1,0.13,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.08,0.13,0.1,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 80, NJN 69	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.67,0.63,0.59,0.62,0.55,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.43,0.38,0.31,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.21,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.15,0.14,0.09,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.11,0.07,0.11,0.07,0.08,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	95.1%
GSW 121, SAC 96	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.57,0.62,0.63,0.66,0.63,0.61,0.57,0.53,0.44,0.35,0.3,0.22,0.18,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.16,0.12,0.09,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.9%
NYK 122, MIL 97	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.59,0.57,0.58,0.59,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.58,0.51,0.4,0.36,0.28,0.32,0.27,0.27,0.22,0.21,0.24,0.2,0.14,0.2,0.18,0.19,0.12,0.1,0.06,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.9%