NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Pelicans	107		Excitement	4.0 [915]		MVP	Brandon Ingram (NOP): +17.8%
Denver Nuggets	88		Comeback	1.1 [433]		LVP	Michael Porter Jr. (DEN): -6.4%

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandon Ingram	0.18	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.16	0.04	0.02	22	62%	0.19	1	-0.01	6	83%	0.01
CJ McCollum	0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.13	0.01	0.04	15	72%	0.13	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Jonas Valanciunas	0.07	0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.01	-0.02	11	56%	0.08	1	-0.01	5	100%	0.02
Trey Murphy III	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.01	-0.03	13	54%	0.07	1	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Naji Marshall	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	47%	0.03	1	-0.02	5	60%	0.01
Dyson Daniels	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	2	75%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Larry Nance Jr.	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Josh Richardson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	4	37%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Herbert Jones	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	6	50%	0.03	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Murray	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.08	-0.00	0.00	15	60%	0.10	2	-0.03	5	100%	0.01
Christian Braun	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	9	50%	0.03	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.02
Aaron Gordon	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	-0.00	-0.02	8	50%	0.04	1	-0.03	6	50%	-0.02
Bruce Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.02	13	56%	0.03	2	-0.03	8	62%	-0.02
Vlatko Cancar	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ish Smith	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Peyton Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.06	-0.00	-0.05	6	31%	-0.01	1	-0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Zeke Nnaji	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Thomas Bryant	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	7	28%	-0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Michael Porter Jr.	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	15	32%	-0.06	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	3.5	32.4	16.4	33.4	3.3	36.5	149.8
league avg	25.7	2.3	28.2	14.9	28.1	2.3	32.4	135.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOP +40.9%

NOP +9.1%

NOP +4.7%

DEN -7.6%

NOP +2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOP	DEN	NBA	NOP	DEN	NBA
this game	15.0	16.1	14.4	116.3	94.6	113.5
season	14.2	14.6		113.4	117.1
opponent	14.5	14.6		113.3	111.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOP	14.4	16.8	13.6	15.5	15.0
DEN	16.3	18.3	15.8	14.5	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
CJ McCollum	72	74	0.60	-0.10	0.71	-0.19	27	-8	35	14.8	15.6	-0.77	16.5	14.6	1.95
Trey Murphy III	75	76	0.57	-0.07	0.65	-0.19	26	-7	33	15.2	14.0	1.23	16.3	15.2	1.09
Herbert Jones	62	66	0.44	0.06	0.37	-0.12	19	0	19	15.3	14.4	0.84	16.6	15.0	1.54
Brandon Ingram	68	69	0.43	0.07	0.35	-0.10	18	1	17	15.7	13.1	2.59	16.6	14.7	1.91
Jonas Valanciunas	50	49	0.38	0.12	0.26	-0.03	14	5	9	15.0	15.0	0.04	16.3	15.9	0.37
Larry Nance Jr.	42	44	0.12	0.38	-0.26	-0.03	5	14	-9	15.0	15.0	-0.04	15.9	16.3	-0.37
Naji Marshall	31	29	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.11	-2	21	-23	14.1	15.5	-1.36	14.8	16.7	-1.99
Josh Richardson	40	39	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.13	-4	23	-27	13.7	16.0	-2.30	15.1	16.9	-1.72
Dyson Daniels	20	19	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	0.13	-8	27	-35	15.6	14.8	0.77	14.6	16.5	-1.95

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Vlatko Cancar	3	4	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-19	19	9.3	16.4	-7.02	13.2	15.1	-1.83
Ish Smith	3	4	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-19	19	9.3	16.4	-7.02	13.2	15.1	-1.83
Peyton Watson	3	4	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-19	19	9.3	16.4	-7.02	13.2	15.1	-1.83
Christian Braun	47	44	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.01	-1	-18	17	15.4	16.9	-1.55	14.5	15.5	-0.96
Zeke Nnaji	34	34	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.13	3	-22	25	15.8	16.3	-0.53	14.2	15.4	-1.21
Bruce Brown	55	54	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	0.00	-5	-14	9	16.0	16.3	-0.36	15.0	15.0	0.00
Jeff Green	57	57	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.14	-2	-17	15	16.6	15.4	1.21	15.2	14.7	0.51
Thomas Bryant	27	28	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	0.07	-12	-7	-5	15.6	16.3	-0.76	14.2	15.3	-1.13
Jamal Murray	69	66	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.07	-16	-3	-13	16.6	14.9	1.69	15.5	13.6	1.93
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	56	56	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	0.05	-17	-2	-15	16.5	15.6	0.84	14.6	15.6	-1.00
Michael Porter Jr.	51	51	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	0.21	-23	4	-27	16.5	15.7	0.71	15.5	14.4	1.01
Aaron Gordon	60	58	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	0.18	-22	3	-25	16.8	14.9	1.84	15.7	13.7	2.01

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.38,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.33,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.34,0.33,0.37,0.34,0.26,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.22,0.23,0.16,0.15,0.09,0.16,0.08,0.09,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 111, IND 100	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.39,0.34,0.35,0.31,0.28,0.3,0.29,0.36,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.28,0.39,0.3,0.25,0.29,0.23,0.13,0.12,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.8%
UTA 112, ATL 91	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.42,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.35,0.33,0.33,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.48,0.42,0.31,0.32,0.29,0.26,0.24,0.2,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.2,0.2,0.12,0.14,0.1,0.09,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.8%
WAS 101, ATL 90	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.5,0.46,0.41,0.36,0.37,0.35,0.42,0.4,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.31,0.36,0.27,0.3,0.2,0.24,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.12,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.03,0.01,0,0	95.7%