NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	109		Excitement	6.0 [631]		MVP	Jalen Williams (OKC): +33.2%
Oklahoma City Thunder	120		Comeback	1.1 [1151]		LVP	Andrew Nembhard (IND): -14.5%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pascal Siakam	0.22	0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.08,0.12,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.08	0.14	-0.00	15	74%	0.31	6	-0.09	8	87%	0.03
Myles Turner	0.12	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.11	0.03	0.02	5	76%	0.12	0	0.00	7	86%	0.03
T.J. McConnell	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.02	-0.03	14	62%	0.16	3	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Tony Bradley	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.00	2	67%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Obi Toppin	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.02	0.00	11	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Aaron Nesmith	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.08	0.00	0.06	9	78%	0.06	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Thomas Bryant	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Johnny Furphy	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	67%	-0.00	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.00
Ben Sheppard	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tyrese Haliburton	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.12	0.01	-0.03	6	25%	-0.04	3	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
Bennedict Mathurin	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.03	-0.03	11	27%	-0.10	1	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Andrew Nembhard	-0.14	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	8	41%	-0.02	4	-0.13	1	100%	0.00

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jalen Williams	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.28,0.28,0.32,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33	0.33	0.22	0.09	-0.01	25	65%	0.35	1	-0.02	12	75%	-0.01
Cason Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.12	0.03	0.01	5	110%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Wiggins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.03	-0.01	10	64%	0.12	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.14,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.02	-0.03	21	55%	0.18	3	-0.08	14	93%	0.03
Luguentz Dort	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.05	0.00	7	64%	0.09	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Kenrich Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Hartenstein	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Alex Caruso	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.11	-0.01	-0.01	8	12%	-0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chet Holmgren	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.14	-0.02	-0.02	15	30%	-0.06	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.7	2.8	32.8	16.7	33.3	2.8	40.0	157.0
league avg	25.9	2.3	28.2	14.9	28.6	2.3	32.2	135.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +20.0%

IND -3.6%

OKC +10.3%

OKC +21.8%

OKC +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	OKC	NBA	IND	OKC	NBA
this game	14.2	14.9	14.4	110.1	121.2	113.1
season	13.9	13.7		115.1	117.8
opponent	14.7	14.7		105.7	113.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	15.1	15.7	13.2	12.8	14.2
OKC	13.7	14.3	14.5	17.2	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Johnny Furphy	3	3	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-13	15	7.3	14.4	-7.05	21.7	14.7	6.96
Tony Bradley	26	26	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.07	2	-15	17	15.1	14.1	0.95	14.2	14.9	-0.76
Bennedict Mathurin	42	40	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.16	4	-17	21	14.6	14.2	0.37	15.0	14.5	0.54
T.J. McConnell	42	40	-0.07	-0.43	0.35	-0.13	2	-15	17	14.0	14.6	-0.60	14.8	14.6	0.24
Ben Sheppard	7	7	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.06	-8	-5	-3	19.0	14.0	4.98	13.0	14.8	-1.84
Pascal Siakam	72	69	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.11	-5	-8	3	14.1	15.3	-1.21	14.7	14.8	-0.15
Myles Turner	49	49	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.10	-7	-6	-1	15.0	13.7	1.34	15.0	14.4	0.60
Aaron Nesmith	52	53	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	0.03	-12	-1	-11	13.8	15.1	-1.30	14.5	15.0	-0.49
Tyrese Haliburton	71	73	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.02	-13	0	-13	14.3	14.5	-0.18	14.7	14.7	-0.04
Obi Toppin	44	47	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	0.01	-16	3	-19	14.0	14.7	-0.71	14.7	14.8	-0.10
Andrew Nembhard	75	76	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.12	-12	-1	-11	14.3	14.6	-0.24	14.9	14.1	0.71

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jalen Williams	59	61	0.27	0.01	0.26	0.04	8	-3	11	14.1	15.6	-1.51	14.3	15.5	-1.18
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander	63	64	0.24	0.04	0.20	0.15	3	2	1	14.6	14.3	0.33	14.8	14.3	0.48
Chet Holmgren	55	55	0.24	0.04	0.20	0.07	6	-1	7	14.1	15.4	-1.27	14.5	15.0	-0.46
Alex Caruso	42	45	0.18	0.10	0.09	0.13	2	3	-1	15.4	13.7	1.72	14.0	15.4	-1.44
Luguentz Dort	51	53	0.17	0.11	0.05	-0.07	8	-3	11	14.1	15.2	-1.13	14.5	14.9	-0.32
Cason Wallace	35	32	0.16	0.12	0.04	0.16	0	5	-5	14.8	14.4	0.42	15.4	14.2	1.25
Kenrich Williams	21	20	0.12	0.16	-0.04	0.01	4	1	3	14.8	14.5	0.28	15.6	14.4	1.29
Isaiah Hartenstein	43	46	0.08	0.20	-0.12	0.11	-1	6	-7	14.1	15.1	-1.01	14.9	14.3	0.59
Aaron Wiggins	46	44	-0.06	0.34	-0.39	0.09	-5	10	-15	15.4	13.5	1.88	14.7	14.6	0.03

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.54,0.63,0.65,0.67,0.65,0.69,0.69,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.73,0.75,0.69,0.78,0.78,0.79,0.8,0.84,0.87,0.84,0.86,0.88,0.86,0.87,0.89,0.84,0.84,0.88,0.78,0.74,0.74,0.79,0.81,0.81,0.79,0.76,0.73,0.86,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 87, LAL 104	0.5,0.5,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.59,0.61,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.72,0.76,0.78,0.74,0.7,0.71,0.69,0.67,0.76,0.79,0.83,0.81,0.89,0.86,0.82,0.79,0.84,0.85,0.86,0.86,0.87,0.85,0.82,0.76,0.67,0.68,0.74,0.9,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.92,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	95.4%
ATL 85, CHA 96	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.61,0.65,0.67,0.71,0.76,0.78,0.78,0.72,0.72,0.72,0.77,0.77,0.82,0.8,0.81,0.83,0.84,0.91,0.89,0.93,0.92,0.88,0.85,0.87,0.81,0.79,0.83,0.81,0.76,0.81,0.79,0.81,0.87,0.85,0.89,0.77,0.79,0.91,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1	95.3%
NYK 94, IND 107	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.63,0.63,0.64,0.63,0.67,0.73,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.76,0.77,0.73,0.76,0.8,0.83,0.85,0.86,0.85,0.82,0.84,0.86,0.86,0.89,0.85,0.92,0.91,0.8,0.84,0.83,0.86,0.75,0.74,0.74,0.79,0.71,0.68,0.86,0.84,0.91,0.98,1,1,1,1	95.1%