NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	93		Excitement	3.5 [1161]		MVP	Jamal Murray (DEN): +18.5%
Denver Nuggets	104		Comeback	1.0 [1251]		LVP	Max Strus (MIA): -14.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Haywood Highsmith	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.13	0.00	0.08	10	82%	0.06	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Gabe Vincent	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.11	0.00	0.06	14	68%	0.07	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.01	0.01	25	52%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	8	69%	0.04	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	0.00	0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	0.00	14	46%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Omer Yurtseven	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jovic	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Duncan Robinson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	6	25%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Cody Zeller	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Caleb Martin	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.00	0.01	7	21%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Max Strus	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.16	-0.01	-0.02	10	0%	-0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Murray	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.06	0.03	-0.09	22	57%	0.21	3	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.15	0.03	0.04	12	75%	0.16	2	-0.02	12	83%	0.01
Aaron Gordon	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.11	0.01	0.03	10	73%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Michael Porter Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.01	0.00	-0.06	16	41%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jeff Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	7	71%	0.04	3	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	8	39%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.00
Christian Braun	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.5	3.3	24.4	15.4	28.3	2.8	27.2	123.9
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +46.6%

DEN +7.6%

MIA -4.3%

MIA -1.4%

DEN +1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DEN	NBA	MIA	DEN	NBA
this game	15.3	15.5	14.4	98.9	111.8	113.4
season	15.1	14.7		112.2	116.8
opponent	14.5	14.6		112.6	112.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.7	17.0	16.1	11.5	15.3
DEN	13.3	16.4	13.9	18.5	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Omer Yurtseven	1	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-11	11	7.0	15.4	-8.39	21.0	15.4	5.55
Nikola Jovic	1	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-11	11	7.0	15.4	-8.39	21.0	15.4	5.55
Cody Zeller	16	14	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	0.06	-5	-6	1	16.0	15.2	0.85	13.1	15.9	-2.78
Kyle Lowry	49	49	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.23	2	-13	15	14.4	16.3	-1.94	16.8	14.1	2.64
Duncan Robinson	42	41	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.07	-4	-7	3	15.3	15.3	-0.07	15.5	15.5	0.01
Haywood Highsmith	47	44	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.11	-3	-8	5	13.5	17.1	-3.66	17.0	14.2	2.84
Max Strus	41	41	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	0.05	-12	1	-13	16.4	14.5	1.94	14.0	16.7	-2.61
Gabe Vincent	74	74	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.31	0	-11	11	15.4	14.8	0.57	15.9	13.9	1.96
Caleb Martin	48	48	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.04	-10	-1	-9	16.9	13.7	3.18	14.4	16.7	-2.29
Bam Adebayo	77	78	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.24	-6	-5	-1	15.3	15.5	-0.21	15.9	13.7	2.19
Jimmy Butler	74	74	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	0.01	-17	6	-23	15.5	14.6	0.82	14.8	18.1	-3.27

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Porter Jr.	83	84	0.53	-0.03	0.57	-0.05	20	-9	29	15.2	18.0	-2.80	15.5	14.0	1.45
Nikola Jokic	80	83	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.07	14	-3	17	14.9	19.3	-4.42	15.1	16.7	-1.62
Aaron Gordon	70	70	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.03	15	-4	19	15.1	16.6	-1.47	15.3	15.4	-0.16
Jamal Murray	84	85	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.20	9	2	7	16.1	9.9	6.22	15.6	12.6	3.03
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	72	74	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.24	5	6	-1	15.5	15.6	-0.09	14.7	17.4	-2.73
Bruce Brown	39	39	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.11	1	10	-9	16.3	14.9	1.43	14.7	15.7	-0.95
Christian Braun	16	15	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.05	-1	12	-13	15.1	15.6	-0.46	17.2	14.9	2.26
Jeff Green	21	20	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.23	-8	19	-27	16.7	15.2	1.50	16.1	15.1	1.08

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.5,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.65,0.67,0.66,0.64,0.68,0.68,0.72,0.73,0.75,0.69,0.68,0.73,0.76,0.83,0.81,0.84,0.91,0.86,0.77,0.85,0.87,0.9,0.93,0.95,0.92,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.97,0.96,0.94,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,0.98,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 90, PHX 119	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.61,0.68,0.67,0.72,0.68,0.65,0.68,0.72,0.75,0.73,0.73,0.72,0.73,0.78,0.76,0.81,0.8,0.86,0.88,0.84,0.89,0.94,0.93,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.6%
SAS 92, GSW 113	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.63,0.62,0.61,0.69,0.67,0.71,0.72,0.73,0.73,0.69,0.73,0.78,0.68,0.73,0.78,0.86,0.88,0.88,0.9,0.81,0.77,0.84,0.89,0.95,0.95,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.5%
CHI 86, PHI 102	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.56,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.59,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.7,0.72,0.77,0.77,0.76,0.74,0.71,0.82,0.86,0.85,0.87,0.86,0.88,0.86,0.8,0.83,0.93,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.4%