NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	98		Excitement	2.8 [15]		MVP	Baylor Scheierman (BOS): +18.9%
Toronto Raptors	93		Comeback	14.2 [4]		LVP	Jamal Shead (TOR): -29.5%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Baylor Scheierman	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.09	0.09	-0.01	5	90%	0.19	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sam Hauser	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09	0.02	0.07	-0.01	6	57%	0.11	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jayson Tatum	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.25,-0.14,0.07	-0.02	0.10	0.01	21	44%	0.12	2	-0.05	12	83%	0.09
Jordan Walsh	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	4	75%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Mitchell Robinson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.02	-0.00	1	100%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Derrick White	-0.03	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.03,-0.03	0.05	-0.06	0.02	15	59%	0.04	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.00
Luka Garza	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.03	-0.03	0.03	3	62%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Hugo González	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Neemias Queta	-0.07	0,0,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.23,-0.07	-0.04	-0.05	-0.02	4	69%	0.17	5	-0.24	8	75%	0.02
Payton Pritchard	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.07	-0.12	-0.00	13	50%	-0.01	5	-0.18	2	100%	0.01

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Allen Graves	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.14,0.21,0.21,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.11	0.06	-0.00	8	81%	0.18	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alijah Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.12	0.03	0.00	5	120%	0.19	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ja'Kobe Walter	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.11	-0.01	0.02	11	71%	0.10	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Jamison Battle	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.04	0.04	0.07	-0.03	-0.00	7	75%	0.11	1	-0.07	2	100%	0.00
Kyle Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.05	0.01	-0.04	4	20%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Jakob Poeltl	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.04	-0.08	-0.00	5	60%	0.02	3	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Immanuel Quickley	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.09	-0.08	-0.04	14	34%	-0.06	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
RJ Barrett	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,0.02,-0.14	-0.14	-0.10	-0.04	-0.00	16	35%	-0.05	2	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Collin Murray-Boyles	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.13	-0.07	0.01	9	23%	-0.12	2	-0.08	4	50%	-0.02
Jamal Shead	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.3	-0.30	-0.10	-0.19	0.00	6	21%	-0.19	2	-0.11	2	50%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.4	2.2	36.4	0.0	24.2	0.0	34.4	0.0
league avg	26.9	1.3	30.1	13.0	30.9	1.6	33.3	138.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +16.0%

BOS +33.1%

TOR -3.5%

BOS +4.9%

TOR -0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	TOR	NBA	BOS	TOR	NBA
this game	15.3	15.0	14.3	103.2	97.9	111.6
season	14.7	14.1		117.9	113.8
opponent	14.6	14.6		111.3	102.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	15.7	13.9	15.4	16.3	15.3
TOR	14.9	13.3	15.9	16.4	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Derrick White	77	75	0.89	-0.39	1.28	0.36	18	-13	31	15.3	15.1	0.20	15.3	14.2	1.00
Neemias Queta	87	86	0.79	-0.29	1.07	0.46	11	-6	17	15.3	14.9	0.44	15.1	14.4	0.66
Baylor Scheierman	89	89	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.37	9	-4	13	15.2	16.5	-1.31	15.4	10.3	5.03
Sam Hauser	89	90	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.32	9	-4	13	15.2	16.5	-1.31	15.2	12.4	2.79
Jayson Tatum	95	95	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.35	5	0	5	15.3	0.0	15.27	15.0	0.0	15.04
Luka Garza	67	65	0.31	0.19	0.13	-0.07	13	-8	21	15.4	15.1	0.29	15.9	13.2	2.69
Payton Pritchard	92	92	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.11	1	4	-3	15.7	1.7	14.05	15.3	6.7	8.65
Jordan Walsh	47	48	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.04	1	4	-3	16.1	14.5	1.65	17.0	13.0	4.00
Hugo González	31	30	-0.13	0.63	-0.75	-0.01	-4	9	-13	16.7	14.6	2.18	15.6	14.8	0.77
Mitchell Robinson	48	50	-0.26	0.76	-1.03	-0.00	-9	14	-23	16.3	14.2	2.06	15.3	14.8	0.46

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alijah Martin	77	77	0.07	-0.57	0.65	0.01	2	-7	9	14.9	15.6	-0.70	15.0	16.5	-1.51
Allen Graves	79	79	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.13	4	-9	13	15.4	13.2	2.23	16.8	7.8	8.97
Ja'Kobe Walter	92	92	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.11	-1	-4	3	15.3	6.7	8.65	15.7	1.7	14.05
Jamal Shead	92	92	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.11	-1	-4	3	15.3	6.7	8.65	15.7	1.7	14.05
Jamison Battle	83	84	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.49	5	-10	15	15.2	13.9	1.29	16.2	8.4	7.81
Kyle Anderson	54	55	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.41	0	-5	5	15.6	14.2	1.40	16.9	13.1	3.75
Collin Murray-Boyles	70	71	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.43	-3	-2	-1	15.5	13.9	1.58	16.4	12.0	4.38
RJ Barrett	78	79	-0.91	0.41	-1.32	-0.35	-19	14	-33	15.1	14.8	0.34	15.2	15.5	-0.27
Jakob Poeltl	78	79	-0.93	0.43	-1.35	-0.34	-20	15	-35	15.4	13.4	2.06	15.6	13.7	1.83
Immanuel Quickley	71	73	-0.95	0.45	-1.41	-0.37	-20	15	-35	15.2	14.6	0.56	15.3	15.1	0.24

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.45,0.55,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.68,0.68,0.73,0.8,0.81,0.87,0.91,0.91,0.87,0.79,0.73,0.7,0.7,0.66,0.63,0.67,0.61,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.37,0.4,0.56,0.7,0.81,0.62,0.57,0.73,0.83,0.71,0.82,0.61,0.63,0.55,0.83,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 86, MIA 84	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.72,0.75,0.69,0.67,0.61,0.64,0.5,0.55,0.48,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.62,0.78,0.75,0.79,0.77,0.79,0.8,0.83,0.75,0.79,0.76,0.73,0	89.1%
MIA 109, SAC 107	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.61,0.63,0.65,0.65,0.73,0.75,0.81,0.83,0.8,0.81,0.8,0.76,0.81,0.78,0.76,0.73,0.59,0.63,0.68,0.77,0.64,0.7,0.64,0.45,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.74,0.89,0.97,0.96,0.93,0.68,0.58,0	88.7%
LAL 129, BOS 128	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.5,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.66,0.69,0.71,0.77,0.82,0.86,0.84,0.88,0.84,0.7,0.73,0.75,0.63,0.66,0.67,0.61,0.49,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.34,0.22,0.32,0.26,0.38,0.52,0.52,0.68,0.79,0.76,0.67,0.75,0.79,0.69,0.84,0	88.7%