NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	89		Excitement	8.9 [189]		MVP	Nikola Jokic (DEN): +22.8%
Denver Nuggets	94		Comeback	3.1 [780]		LVP	Aaron Gordon (DEN): -21.8%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Lowry	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	-0.00	0.05	-0.01	13	46%	0.09	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Love	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	4	37%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Haywood Highsmith	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.03	0.00	20	48%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Jimmy Butler	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.08,0.14,0.12,0.23,-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	-0.00	18	45%	0.18	1	-0.20	11	82%	0.10
Cody Zeller	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Caleb Martin	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	9	50%	0.04	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Duncan Robinson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	6	42%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Gabe Vincent	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.10	-0.04	-0.02	13	23%	-0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Max Strus	-0.15	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.15,-0.15	0.01	-0.14	0.02	12	48%	-0.12	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.31,0.31,0.23	0.23	0.13	0.10	0.00	16	76%	0.34	4	-0.12	5	60%	-0.03
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.08	0.08	0.00	0.09	0.01	10	50%	0.13	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.05
Jeff Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	2	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Christian Braun	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.00	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.06
DeAndre Jordan	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Porter Jr.	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	17	44%	0.00	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Bruce Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.04,-0.03	-0.03	-0.10	0.07	0.00	14	31%	-0.01	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.03
Jamal Murray	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.15,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.11	-0.06	-0.01	15	47%	0.02	6	-0.17	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gordon	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.22	-0.22	-0.08	-0.14	-0.00	6	25%	-0.20	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.4	2.7	30.1	16.4	26.3	2.8	35.4	142.1
league avg	25.8	2.3	28.2	15.0	28.2	2.3	32.4	135.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +50.6%

MIA -21.8%

DEN +19.9%

DEN +0.8%

DEN +0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DEN	NBA	MIA	DEN	NBA
this game	16.0	14.0	14.4	93.7	96.9	113.4
season	15.1	14.7		111.9	116.6
opponent	14.5	14.6		112.3	112.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.1	16.4	15.0	19.0	16.0
DEN	13.1	14.9	13.8	14.5	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Haywood Highsmith	6	5	0.06	-0.56	0.61	0.06	0	-5	5	17.8	15.9	1.97	14.6	14.0	0.60
Caleb Martin	58	62	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.49	13	-18	31	15.8	16.2	-0.42	15.5	11.4	4.12
Cody Zeller	2	2	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.06	-5	0	-5	28.0	15.7	12.27	16.0	14.0	2.01
Kevin Love	32	30	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	0.08	-11	6	-17	15.6	16.2	-0.55	13.0	14.5	-1.54
Max Strus	63	65	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.34	2	-7	9	15.7	16.6	-0.96	13.8	14.5	-0.65
Kyle Lowry	65	68	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.43	5	-10	15	16.2	15.6	0.52	14.6	12.7	1.86
Duncan Robinson	34	34	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.05	-9	4	-13	16.1	15.9	0.15	13.9	14.1	-0.23
Bam Adebayo	87	90	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.27	-3	-2	-1	15.8	18.0	-2.20	13.8	16.4	-2.58
Gabe Vincent	47	47	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.05	-14	9	-23	15.4	16.6	-1.24	12.0	15.9	-3.94
Jimmy Butler	81	82	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.32	-3	-2	-1	16.5	13.3	3.17	14.4	12.3	2.09

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nikola Jokic	85	83	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.28	12	-7	19	14.0	14.2	-0.15	16.3	13.6	2.75
Jamal Murray	82	81	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.27	12	-7	19	14.0	14.1	-0.04	16.3	14.2	2.08
Bruce Brown	57	56	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.58	0	5	-5	14.2	13.8	0.31	16.0	16.0	0.03
Aaron Gordon	56	56	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.33	8	-3	11	14.1	13.9	0.22	16.7	15.0	1.64
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	70	67	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.18	7	-2	9	14.0	14.1	-0.11	15.6	17.0	-1.38
Christian Braun	48	48	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.12	0	5	-5	13.9	14.2	-0.31	16.9	15.0	1.87
DeAndre Jordan	7	7	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.01	-2	7	-9	13.7	14.1	-0.34	12.1	16.3	-4.15
Jeff Green	10	10	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.04	-5	10	-15	15.3	13.9	1.41	12.9	16.4	-3.45
Michael Porter Jr.	70	67	-0.25	0.75	-1.00	-0.04	-7	12	-19	13.9	14.4	-0.57	15.2	17.8	-2.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.5,0.51,0.61,0.64,0.6,0.55,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.29,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.31,0.36,0.25,0.3,0.35,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.39,0.48,0.41,0.41,0.34,0.44,0.56,0.46,0.66,0.67,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.81,0.83,0.9,0.54,0.55,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 109, MIN 111	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.33,0.3,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.28,0.3,0.27,0.31,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.48,0.58,0.55,0.43,0.37,0.44,0.52,0.46,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.68,0.64,0.76,0.78,0.79,0.85,0.84,0.92,1	90.9%
MEM 86, DEN 89	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.42,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.45,0.44,0.38,0.4,0.3,0.31,0.29,0.26,0.33,0.33,0.22,0.21,0.17,0.16,0.11,0.2,0.34,0.41,0.44,0.41,0.33,0.44,0.46,0.52,0.65,0.66,0.73,0.74,0.66,0.83,0.75,0.46,0.32,0.59,1	90.9%
ATL 107, DET 115	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.56,0.56,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.38,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.33,0.32,0.31,0.27,0.22,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.2,0.31,0.33,0.27,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.71,0.76,0.68,0.74,0.59,0.67,0.74,0.55,0.57,0.98,1	90.6%