inpredictable
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NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?
Miami Heat 89 Excitement8.9 [189] MVPNikola Jokic (DEN): +22.8%
Denver Nuggets 94 Comeback3.1 [780] LVPAaron Gordon (DEN): -21.8%


Miami Heat
PlayerWPAeWPAclWPAgbWPAFGATS%tsWPATOtoWPAFTAFT%ftWPA
Kyle Lowry0.060,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06-0.000.05-0.011346%0.091-0.0400%0.00
Kevin Love0.010,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01-0.010.01-0.01437%0.0100.0000%0.00
Haywood Highsmith0.0000.000.000.0000%0.0000.0000%0.00
Bam Adebayo-0.010,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.010.02-0.030.002048%0.001-0.022100%0.01
Jimmy Butler-0.020,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.08,0.14,0.12,0.23,-0.02-0.00-0.02-0.001845%0.181-0.201182%0.10
Cody Zeller-0.030,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03-0.02-0.020.0010%-0.0300.0000%0.00
Caleb Martin-0.040,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04-0.02-0.010.00950%0.042-0.082100%0.01
Duncan Robinson-0.070,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07-0.04-0.030.00642%-0.032-0.0500%0.00
Gabe Vincent-0.120,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12-0.10-0.04-0.021323%-0.1200.0000%0.00
Max Strus-0.150,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.15,-0.150.01-0.140.021248%-0.121-0.031100%0.00

Denver Nuggets
PlayerWPAeWPAclWPAgbWPAFGATS%tsWPATOtoWPAFTAFT%ftWPA
Nikola Jokic0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.31,0.31,0.230.230.130.100.001676%0.344-0.12560%-0.03
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.080.080.000.090.011050%0.131-0.052100%0.05
Jeff Green0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.030.030.040.000.012100%0.0300.0000%0.00
Christian Braun0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,00.000.01-0.01-0.00450%0.0000.00650%-0.06
DeAndre Jordan00.000.000.000.0000%0.0000.0000%0.00
Michael Porter Jr.0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01-0.01-0.02-0.02-0.031744%0.001-0.01250%-0.01
Bruce Brown0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.04,-0.03-0.03-0.100.070.001431%-0.011-0.02450%-0.03
Jamal Murray0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.15,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.15,-0.15-0.15-0.11-0.06-0.011547%0.026-0.1700%0.00
Aaron Gordon0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.22-0.22-0.08-0.14-0.00625%-0.201-0.02450%-0.02
Game Length Report (minutes)

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4Total
this game28.42.730.116.426.32.835.4142.1
league avg25.82.328.215.028.22.332.4135.2
Win Probability Added by the Four Factors
(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP
start
50% WP
DEN +50.6%
MIA -21.8%
DEN +19.9%
DEN +0.8%
DEN +0.5%
Pace and Efficiency Report

seconds / possessionpoints / 100 possessions
all possessionsMIADENNBAMIADENNBA
this game16.014.014.493.796.9113.4
season15.114.7111.9116.6
opponent14.514.6112.3112.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

Q1Q2Q3Q4Total
MIA14.116.415.019.016.0
DEN13.114.913.814.514.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
possessionswin probabilitypointspace (offense)pace (defense)
playeroffensedefenseonoffdiffcl+/-onoffdiffonoffdiffonoffdiff
Haywood Highsmith650.06-0.560.610.060-5517.815.91.9714.614.00.60
Caleb Martin5862-0.11-0.390.28-0.4913-183115.816.2-0.4215.511.44.12
Cody Zeller22-0.20-0.300.09-0.06-50-528.015.712.2716.014.02.01
Kevin Love3230-0.24-0.260.010.08-116-1715.616.2-0.5513.014.5-1.54
Max Strus6365-0.28-0.22-0.06-0.342-7915.716.6-0.9613.814.5-0.65
Kyle Lowry6568-0.29-0.21-0.07-0.435-101516.215.60.5214.612.71.86
Duncan Robinson3434-0.31-0.19-0.13-0.05-94-1316.115.90.1513.914.1-0.23
Bam Adebayo8790-0.36-0.14-0.21-0.27-3-2-115.818.0-2.2013.816.4-2.58
Gabe Vincent4747-0.36-0.14-0.220.05-149-2315.416.6-1.2412.015.9-3.94
Jimmy Butler8182-0.40-0.10-0.31-0.32-3-2-116.513.33.1714.412.32.09

Denver Nuggets
possessionswin probabilitypointspace (offense)pace (defense)
playeroffensedefenseonoffdiffcl+/-onoffdiffonoffdiffonoffdiff
Nikola Jokic85830.63-0.130.760.2812-71914.014.2-0.1516.313.62.75
Jamal Murray82810.63-0.130.750.2712-71914.014.1-0.0416.314.22.08
Bruce Brown57560.58-0.080.660.5805-514.213.80.3116.016.00.03
Aaron Gordon56560.56-0.060.630.338-31114.113.90.2216.715.01.64
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope70670.380.120.260.187-2914.014.1-0.1115.617.0-1.38
Christian Braun48480.120.38-0.270.1205-513.914.2-0.3116.915.01.87
DeAndre Jordan77-0.050.55-0.590.01-27-913.714.1-0.3412.116.3-4.15
Jeff Green1010-0.100.60-0.700.04-510-1515.313.91.4112.916.4-3.45
Michael Porter Jr.7067-0.250.75-1.00-0.04-712-1913.914.4-0.5715.217.8-2.60


Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.5,0.51,0.61,0.64,0.6,0.55,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.29,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.31,0.36,0.25,0.3,0.35,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.39,0.48,0.41,0.41,0.34,0.44,0.56,0.46,0.66,0.67,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.81,0.83,0.9,0.54,0.55,0.73,1
GameSimilarity Score
MIA 109, MIN 1110.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.33,0.3,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.28,0.3,0.27,0.31,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.48,0.58,0.55,0.43,0.37,0.44,0.52,0.46,0.52,0.57,0.57,0.68,0.64,0.76,0.78,0.79,0.85,0.84,0.92,190.9%
MEM 86, DEN 890.5,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.42,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.45,0.44,0.38,0.4,0.3,0.31,0.29,0.26,0.33,0.33,0.22,0.21,0.17,0.16,0.11,0.2,0.34,0.41,0.44,0.41,0.33,0.44,0.46,0.52,0.65,0.66,0.73,0.74,0.66,0.83,0.75,0.46,0.32,0.59,190.9%
ATL 107, DET 1150.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.56,0.56,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.38,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.33,0.32,0.31,0.27,0.22,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.2,0.31,0.33,0.27,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.52,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.71,0.76,0.68,0.74,0.59,0.67,0.74,0.55,0.57,0.98,190.6%