| Win Probability if: | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Game | Time | Score | Shot | Miss | Make | Swing | Result | Play |
| 2010-01-23 | ORL 106 CHA 95 | Q4 0:37 | ORL 87 CHA 87 | 2PT | 0.459 | 0.777 | 0.318 | MAKE | Nelson 16' Step Back Jump Shot |
| 2010-01-25 | ORL 94 MEM 99 | Q4 1:51 | ORL 92 MEM 92 | 2PT | 0.470 | 0.686 | 0.216 | MAKE | Nelson Driving Layup |
| 2010-02-05 | WAS 92 ORL 91 | Q4 0:52 | WAS 89 ORL 88 | 3PT | 0.298 | 0.748 | 0.450 | MISS | MISS Nelson 24' 3PT Jump Shot |
| 2010-03-18 | ORL 108 MIA 102 | Q4 1:21 | ORL 88 MIA 88 | 2PT | 0.469 | 0.712 | 0.243 | MAKE | Nelson 6' Running Bank Shot |
| 2010-03-18 | ORL 108 MIA 102 | Q4 0:15 | ORL 93 MIA 95 | 2PT | 0.108 | 0.379 | 0.270 | MAKE | Nelson 20' Jump Shot |
