NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	104		Excitement	1.8 [1257]		MVP	Scott Williams (MIL): +5.4%
Indiana Pacers	91		Comeback	1.0 [577]		LVP	Reggie Miller (IND): -5.8%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Scott Williams	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.00	0.00	11	65%	0.06	1	-0.00	1	100%	0.00
Ray Allen	0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	-0.00	11	71%	0.05	3	-0.00	6	67%	-0.00
Vinny Del Negro	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.00	-0.03	9	56%	0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Sam Cassell	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.06	0.00	0.03	15	57%	0.03	0	0.00	5	100%	0.00
Tim Thomas	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.08	0.00	0.05	11	66%	0.02	0	0.00	7	86%	0.00
Darvin Ham	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.07	0.00	-0.08	4	44%	0.01	3	-0.00	1	0%	-0.00
Ervin Johnson	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Rafer Alston	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.07	0.00	-0.07	1	0%	0.00	1	0.00	2	0%	0.00
Danny Manning	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Glenn Robinson	-0.00	0,0,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	9	58%	0.03	3	-0.03	1	100%	0.00

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Zan Tabak	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	4	60%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Derrick McKey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Mullin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonathan Bender	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rik Smits	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.01	8	60%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Austin Croshere	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.02	8	67%	0.00	2	-0.01	8	75%	-0.01
Jalen Rose	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.08	0.00	-0.06	13	37%	-0.03	1	-0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Sam Perkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	0.02	5	42%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Mark Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	8	31%	-0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Travis Best	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	12	47%	-0.05	2	-0.00	6	83%	0.00
Dale Davis	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.10	-0.00	-0.05	8	42%	-0.04	2	-0.02	8	50%	-0.02
Reggie Miller	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.09	0.00	-0.03	12	40%	-0.05	3	-0.01	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	3.3	25.6	18.4	33.4	3.4	30.6	140.9
league avg	26.0	2.2	28.8	16.5	26.3	2.2	33.7	137.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +39.9%

MIL +5.8%

MIL +0.5%

MIL +1.7%

MIL +2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	IND	NBA	MIL	IND	NBA
this game	15.4	15.5	15.2	110.6	98.9	101.7
season	14.9	15.4		105.5	106.5
opponent	15.1	15.4		101.8	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	12.9	16.4	14.6	17.9	15.4
IND	17.9	17.9	15.4	11.4	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sam Cassell	62	61	0.48	0.01	0.47	-0.22	24	-11	35	14.4	17.4	-3.02	16.9	12.8	4.10
Tim Thomas	56	53	0.38	0.12	0.26	-0.15	18	-5	23	14.9	16.3	-1.41	15.8	15.1	0.68
Glenn Robinson	59	57	0.37	0.13	0.24	-0.19	19	-6	25	14.3	17.4	-3.07	16.3	14.3	2.04
Ray Allen	67	66	0.31	0.18	0.13	-0.21	18	-5	23	14.8	17.1	-2.28	16.2	13.9	2.23
Ervin Johnson	46	45	0.29	0.21	0.08	-0.51	27	-14	41	14.2	16.6	-2.45	17.4	13.7	3.63
Darvin Ham	66	67	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.33	-3	16	-19	16.3	13.4	2.98	15.4	15.8	-0.33
Scott Williams	36	36	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.16	2	11	-9	14.9	15.8	-0.86	15.4	15.6	-0.17
Vinny Del Negro	47	46	0.19	0.30	-0.10	0.31	-4	17	-21	16.7	14.2	2.51	14.2	16.8	-2.61
Rafer Alston	12	11	0.00	0.49	-0.49	0.35	-12	25	-37	19.5	14.9	4.65	9.5	16.3	-6.79
Danny Manning	10	9	0.00	0.49	-0.49	0.35	-12	25	-37	21.6	14.7	6.89	8.1	16.3	-8.21

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jonathan Bender	3	3	0.00	-0.49	0.49	-0.09	3	-16	19	6.3	15.8	-9.50	14.3	15.5	-1.15
Zan Tabak	40	41	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.48	16	-29	45	12.0	18.2	-6.27	16.8	14.4	2.45
Chris Mullin	23	23	-0.05	-0.44	0.39	-0.37	11	-24	35	14.3	15.9	-1.68	18.2	14.5	3.67
Sam Perkins	29	29	-0.12	-0.37	0.25	-0.39	9	-22	31	15.0	15.8	-0.76	18.0	14.3	3.64
Derrick McKey	20	20	-0.13	-0.36	0.23	-0.02	-4	-9	5	18.4	14.7	3.74	15.6	15.4	0.19
Austin Croshere	42	43	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.11	-3	-10	7	15.3	15.7	-0.39	16.2	14.8	1.45
Travis Best	44	46	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.16	-3	-10	7	14.5	16.4	-1.91	16.5	14.4	2.15
Mark Jackson	48	48	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	0.04	-10	-3	-7	16.4	14.5	1.91	14.4	16.5	-2.15
Dale Davis	54	55	-0.30	-0.19	-0.10	0.23	-18	5	-23	15.9	15.1	0.80	14.4	17.0	-2.61
Reggie Miller	51	52	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.17	-18	5	-23	16.2	14.7	1.47	14.7	16.4	-1.73
Rik Smits	37	39	-0.36	-0.13	-0.23	0.34	-24	11	-35	17.8	14.0	3.78	13.8	16.6	-2.78
Jalen Rose	69	71	-0.44	-0.05	-0.39	0.26	-24	11	-35	15.9	14.3	1.68	14.5	18.2	-3.67

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.4,0.36,0.32,0.31,0.27,0.21,0.2,0.19,0.14,0.13,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 115, CLE 86	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.5,0.45,0.41,0.38,0.33,0.33,0.26,0.24,0.2,0.16,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	98.1%
CHI 95, CHA 64	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.5,0.47,0.46,0.43,0.37,0.37,0.26,0.27,0.25,0.23,0.16,0.14,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	98.0%
CLE 106, MEM 76	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.32,0.3,0.29,0.21,0.2,0.15,0.13,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	98.0%