NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	75		Excitement	5.5 [435]		MVP	Tyrone Corbin (ATL): +11.3%
Atlanta Hawks	87		Comeback	1.3 [494]		LVP	Grant Hill (DET): -17.6%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bison Dele	0.10	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.02	-0.00	10	74%	0.12	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.04
Don Reid	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.00	-0.01	3	67%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Williams	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	2	67%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Eric Montross	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles O'Bannon	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	6	69%	0.02	2	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Jud Buechler	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	9	39%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Christian Laettner	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.01	9	40%	-0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Joe Dumars	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	6	25%	-0.02	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Grant Hill	-0.18	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18	-0.12	-0.05	0.00	27	37%	-0.12	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyrone Corbin	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.05	0.05	-0.02	14	54%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steven Smith	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.03	-0.00	14	48%	0.05	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.03
Dikembe Mutombo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	-0.00	6	67%	0.04	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.02
Mark West	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Grant Long	0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.01	0.03	14	62%	0.02	5	-0.11	14	86%	0.02
Mookie Blaylock	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.02	0.01	14	53%	0.03	5	-0.13	4	50%	-0.03
Anthony Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	0.00	3	25%	-0.08	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	2.0	29.0	16.8	30.0	2.6	36.2	140.6
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +28.9%

ATL +3.2%

ATL +29.4%

DET -17.6%

ATL +6.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	ATL	NBA	DET	ATL	NBA
this game	17.5	18.3	15.8	93.8	107.4	99.6
season	16.6	16.7		101.4	97.2
opponent	16.3	16.1		94.9	97.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	16.3	17.2	20.0	16.7	17.5
ATL	14.4	19.8	17.9	22.1	18.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Charles O'Bannon	2	2	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-12	12	8.5	17.7	-9.22	16.5	18.3	-1.83
Don Reid	14	14	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.07	-4	-8	4	14.4	18.2	-3.79	15.9	18.8	-2.93
Jerome Williams	36	35	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.02	-2	-10	8	17.2	17.7	-0.48	16.6	19.5	-2.91
Jud Buechler	13	11	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	0.03	-4	-8	4	18.4	17.3	1.07	21.7	17.7	3.98
Eric Montross	14	14	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.05	-8	-4	-4	17.5	17.5	0.02	14.9	19.0	-4.14
Joe Dumars	53	52	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.04	-5	-7	2	17.5	17.4	0.18	18.9	17.1	1.84
Jerry Stackhouse	41	44	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.13	-6	-6	0	16.7	18.3	-1.55	19.1	17.4	1.72
Bison Dele	45	47	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.28	-1	-11	10	19.3	15.1	4.22	20.6	15.1	5.46
Christian Laettner	48	49	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.18	-7	-5	-2	17.5	17.4	0.08	18.9	17.3	1.66
Lindsey Hunter	64	65	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.13	-11	-1	-10	18.0	15.6	2.41	17.1	23.1	-5.95
Grant Hill	70	72	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.12	-12	0	-12	17.1	20.3	-3.21	17.9	21.2	-3.31

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mookie Blaylock	79	78	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.12	16	-4	20	17.9	31.5	-13.55	17.5	18.5	-1.04
Dikembe Mutombo	78	76	0.50	-0.00	0.50	0.15	12	0	12	18.4	15.7	2.72	17.3	21.5	-4.22
Grant Long	81	80	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.15	12	0	12	18.3	0.0	18.28	17.5	0.0	17.49
Steven Smith	81	80	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.15	12	0	12	18.3	0.0	18.28	17.5	0.0	17.49
Anthony Johnson	14	15	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.07	8	4	4	18.6	18.2	0.43	21.5	16.6	4.98
Tyrone Corbin	69	67	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.10	0	12	-12	18.6	16.5	2.09	16.6	22.0	-5.39
Mark West	3	4	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.00	0	12	-12	15.7	18.4	-2.72	21.5	17.3	4.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.6,0.66,0.75,0.67,0.55,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.56,0.48,0.6,0.66,0.78,0.82,0.86,0.81,0.9,0.88,0.91,0.92,0.97,0.98,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 85, POR 89	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.48,0.5,0.56,0.6,0.59,0.57,0.6,0.63,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.68,0.66,0.6,0.58,0.61,0.68,0.69,0.66,0.64,0.61,0.63,0.57,0.6,0.67,0.61,0.58,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.56,0.48,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.71,0.87,0.88,0.9,0.82,0.83,0.9,0.95,0.99,0.91,1	93.8%
MIL 90, NJN 96	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.6,0.66,0.69,0.64,0.59,0.7,0.7,0.63,0.66,0.64,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.56,0.7,0.81,0.82,0.76,0.81,0.89,0.88,0.86,0.93,0.92,0.94,0.95,1	93.6%
IND 83, DEN 95	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.55,0.51,0.69,0.67,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.66,0.6,0.6,0.74,0.79,0.88,0.9,0.91,0.99,0.98,0.93,0.98,0.99,1,1,1	93.6%