NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	83		Excitement	5.2 [746]		MVP	Nick Van Exel (DEN): +44.0%
Denver Nuggets	95		Comeback	1.2 [991]		LVP	Voshon Lenard (DEN): -22.7%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jalen Rose	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	-0.01	0.04	-0.02	16	52%	0.11	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Jermaine O'Neal	0.00	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	-0.02	0.02	18	61%	0.09	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Foster	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Lari Ketner	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Miller	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.04	-0.01	0.04	11	60%	0.02	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Jonathan Bender	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.02	4	42%	-0.05	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Al Harrington	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.02	0.02	13	64%	0.06	5	-0.12	2	100%	0.01
Austin Croshere	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.12	-0.02	-0.03	7	12%	-0.08	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Travis Best	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.03	-0.00	4	25%	-0.05	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Van Exel	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.1,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.44	0.44	0.22	0.18	-0.04	27	67%	0.44	1	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.04	0.01	0.04	11	73%	0.10	4	-0.10	8	100%	0.05
Terry Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	1	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Mark Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
George McCloud	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.01	0.01	15	44%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Ryan Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Posey	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.01	12	46%	-0.04	1	-0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Robert Pack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	1	50%	-0.00	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.19	-0.04	-0.01	12	8%	-0.17	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.6	2.4	31.4	15.5	21.2	2.7	26.4	121.2
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +16.4%

DEN +5.7%

DEN +17.0%

DEN +14.4%

IND -3.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	DEN	NBA	IND	DEN	NBA
this game	14.9	16.4	15.5	90.2	103.3	100.9
season	15.9	15.2		99.3	101.4
opponent	15.2	15.6		104.1	99.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	15.7	15.1	14.0	14.5	14.9
DEN	12.0	16.2	16.0	23.4	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jonathan Bender	30	32	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.04	3	-15	18	14.8	14.9	-0.09	15.6	16.9	-1.26
Lari Ketner	3	4	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-14	16	8.7	15.1	-6.40	17.5	16.4	1.10
Travis Best	53	54	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.16	0	-12	12	15.4	14.1	1.31	17.4	15.1	2.24
Al Harrington	77	76	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.13	-2	-10	8	14.9	14.4	0.55	17.4	11.7	5.68
Austin Croshere	49	51	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.15	-4	-8	4	15.2	14.5	0.74	16.4	16.6	-0.21
Reggie Miller	69	69	-0.35	-0.15	-0.21	-0.18	-6	-6	0	14.6	15.5	-0.88	17.3	13.7	3.61
Jeff Foster	28	28	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.02	-15	3	-18	13.1	15.6	-2.57	13.4	17.8	-4.39
Jermaine O'Neal	83	81	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.09	-15	3	-18	15.0	13.1	1.94	16.7	14.8	1.85
Jalen Rose	68	65	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	0.08	-23	11	-34	15.1	14.2	0.94	15.0	19.9	-4.87

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nick Van Exel	81	81	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.15	13	-1	14	16.6	15.6	0.92	14.8	15.3	-0.47
George McCloud	53	51	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.17	11	1	10	17.8	14.5	3.31	15.0	14.7	0.36
Raef LaFrentz	63	64	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.14	12	0	12	17.4	14.4	2.92	15.0	14.6	0.31
Terry Davis	37	37	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.21	4	8	-4	19.3	14.5	4.72	14.1	15.4	-1.30
Ryan Bowen	49	50	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.18	4	8	-4	17.8	14.9	2.98	13.8	16.1	-2.28
James Posey	62	63	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.07	7	5	2	15.0	19.5	-4.53	15.3	13.9	1.46
Mark Strickland	32	32	0.12	0.39	-0.27	0.03	3	9	-6	13.8	17.9	-4.09	14.8	14.9	-0.07
Voshon Lenard	63	63	0.11	0.39	-0.27	-0.06	6	6	0	15.2	19.2	-4.03	15.0	14.5	0.55
Robert Pack	20	19	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.00	0	12	-12	13.6	17.2	-3.64	16.6	14.4	2.17

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.55,0.51,0.69,0.67,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.66,0.6,0.6,0.74,0.79,0.88,0.9,0.91,0.99,0.98,0.93,0.98,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 86, ORL 93	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.63,0.61,0.63,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.55,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.58,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.48,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.74,0.72,0.69,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.78,0.81,0.85,0.91,0.93,0.94,0.91,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1	94.5%
CHI 72, CLE 91	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.41,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.65,0.62,0.56,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.82,0.88,0.95,0.95,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.4%
IND 98, MIL 107	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.55,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.47,0.46,0.39,0.49,0.56,0.5,0.42,0.52,0.58,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.69,0.63,0.63,0.71,0.81,0.85,0.85,0.83,0.87,0.9,0.89,0.95,0.95,0.96,1,1,1	94.3%