NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	86		Excitement	5.5 [429]		MVP	Darrell Armstrong (ORL): +12.0%
Orlando Magic	93		Comeback	1.3 [663]		LVP	Chris Whitney (WAS): -14.5%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jahidi White	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Legler	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	5	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Coker	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	6	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Otis Thorpe	-0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09	-0.04	-0.03	0.02	14	57%	0.00	5	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Calbert Cheaney	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09	0.01	-0.03	0.07	18	50%	-0.06	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Mitch Richmond	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.12,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.14,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.00	0.02	15	44%	-0.03	3	-0.08	6	83%	-0.00
Ben Wallace	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.07	-0.04	0.01	6	45%	-0.09	1	-0.03	8	37%	-0.09
Rod Strickland	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.10	-0.03	-0.00	17	37%	-0.13	0	0.00	7	43%	-0.05
Chris Whitney	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.12	-0.03	-0.00	5	0%	-0.09	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.12	0.05	0.05	11	84%	0.19	3	-0.07	10	100%	0.02
Derek Strong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
B.J. Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bo Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Harpring	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.01	0.01	3	75%	0.03	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Dan Schayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Ike Austin	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	12	56%	0.04	3	-0.08	3	33%	-0.03
Michael Doleac	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Nick Anderson	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.04	-0.01	8	64%	0.03	3	-0.08	6	83%	0.00
Horace Grant	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.04	-0.03	0.02	11	57%	0.01	4	-0.11	1	100%	0.01
Anfernee Hardaway	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.16	-0.01	-0.03	10	42%	-0.01	6	-0.12	4	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.0	2.0	27.2	15.5	27.4	1.8	39.2	136.1
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +53.7%

ORL +19.8%

ORL +5.1%

WAS -29.8%

ORL +1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	ORL	NBA	WAS	ORL	NBA
this game	14.8	15.5	15.8	89.6	98.9	99.6
season	15.5	16.1		98.8	98.0
opponent	15.6	15.9		95.7	101.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	14.1	15.7	16.0	13.8	14.8
ORL	13.0	17.7	15.3	16.3	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Legler	30	28	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.08	2	-9	11	13.3	15.6	-2.29	15.2	15.6	-0.33
Jahidi White	3	4	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.05	0	-7	7	32.3	14.3	18.05	18.2	15.4	2.89
John Coker	31	27	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.09	-4	-3	-1	13.5	15.5	-1.96	15.8	15.4	0.42
Rod Strickland	72	73	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.19	-1	-6	5	15.0	14.3	0.74	15.8	14.3	1.47
Ben Wallace	73	74	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.22	-2	-5	3	15.1	14.1	1.00	15.3	16.2	-0.98
Chris Whitney	26	23	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.16	-4	-3	-1	13.8	15.2	-1.42	13.4	16.1	-2.71
Calbert Cheaney	77	76	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.23	-7	0	-7	15.5	12.1	3.48	15.9	13.9	1.97
Otis Thorpe	83	81	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.17	-10	3	-13	14.7	16.0	-1.34	15.7	14.0	1.72
Mitch Richmond	85	84	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.28	-9	2	-11	14.8	15.4	-0.59	15.2	17.7	-2.49

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Darrell Armstrong	78	80	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.25	11	-4	15	15.1	17.2	-2.06	15.1	13.5	1.61
Ike Austin	62	64	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.20	12	-5	17	16.4	13.7	2.76	15.5	13.6	1.92
Horace Grant	66	69	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.21	11	-4	15	14.5	17.9	-3.44	13.8	17.4	-3.57
Anfernee Hardaway	84	86	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.24	7	0	7	15.0	19.6	-4.61	14.8	15.3	-0.51
Matt Harpring	31	35	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.21	6	1	5	17.2	14.6	2.61	16.2	14.1	2.13
Nick Anderson	68	67	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.18	5	2	3	15.5	15.5	-0.08	15.1	14.3	0.71
Dan Schayes	16	16	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.04	-2	9	-11	13.9	15.8	-1.93	14.7	14.9	-0.19
Michael Doleac	14	14	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	-0.01	-1	8	-9	14.8	15.6	-0.81	13.1	15.1	-2.07
B.J. Armstrong	18	18	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	0.10	-6	13	-19	15.7	15.4	0.30	12.9	15.3	-2.41
Bo Outlaw	11	10	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.04	-4	11	-15	16.1	15.4	0.69	14.2	14.9	-0.72
Derek Strong	22	21	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.02	-4	11	-15	17.7	14.8	2.94	15.7	14.6	1.11

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.63,0.61,0.63,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.55,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.58,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.48,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.74,0.72,0.69,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.78,0.81,0.85,0.91,0.93,0.94,0.91,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 85, HOU 100	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.59,0.65,0.63,0.61,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.6,0.6,0.63,0.65,0.69,0.61,0.66,0.59,0.57,0.5,0.55,0.51,0.64,0.7,0.73,0.79,0.74,0.75,0.66,0.63,0.64,0.81,0.9,0.9,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.91,0.93,0.97,0.99,1,1,1	94.8%
MIL 97, IND 108	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.63,0.61,0.53,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.64,0.51,0.49,0.59,0.61,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.64,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.67,0.55,0.71,0.68,0.69,0.7,0.71,0.64,0.81,0.92,0.9,0.96,0.94,0.96,0.94,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.99,1,1	94.6%
IND 83, DEN 95	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.55,0.51,0.69,0.67,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.66,0.6,0.6,0.74,0.79,0.88,0.9,0.91,0.99,0.98,0.93,0.98,0.99,1,1,1	94.5%