NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	97		Excitement	5.7 [667]		MVP	Reggie Miller (IND): +41.3%
Indiana Pacers	108		Comeback	1.1 [891]		LVP	Tim Thomas (MIL): -11.5%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sam Cassell	0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.08	0.00	0.01	23	58%	0.09	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Ervin Johnson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.00	3	75%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Scott Williams	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	16	50%	0.06	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Joel Przybilla	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Glenn Robinson	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	0.02	18	50%	-0.01	3	-0.06	4	75%	-0.00
Lindsey Hunter	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	10	32%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tim Thomas	-0.12	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.11	-0.02	-0.02	21	36%	-0.07	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Reggie Miller	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.31,0.31,0.32,0.33,0.33,0.31,0.33,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.41,0.41	0.41	0.29	0.13	0.01	21	82%	0.42	1	-0.00	8	100%	0.06
Tyus Edney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	4	75%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Foster	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Travis Best	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	0.02	13	53%	0.01	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	19	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	10	60%	-0.05
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	9	56%	0.04	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Zan Tabak	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sam Perkins	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick McKey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	0	50%	-0.01	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Jonathan Bender	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Austin Croshere	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	8	53%	0.01	4	-0.10	3	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.3	2.3	29.3	15.5	25.6	2.5	27.4	127.0
league avg	28.8	2.2	28.9	16.6	26.2	2.2	33.1	139.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +36.4%

IND +9.6%

IND +5.2%

MIL -13.0%

IND +11.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	IND	NBA	MIL	IND	NBA
this game	15.8	16.1	15.5	106.6	120.0	100.9
season	14.9	15.9		105.9	99.3
opponent	15.6	15.8		99.9	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	16.3	17.1	15.2	14.6	15.8
IND	15.7	15.6	17.7	15.4	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Scott Williams	18	18	0.01	-0.51	0.52	0.01	0	-11	11	17.9	15.2	2.64	16.6	15.9	0.62
Ervin Johnson	51	48	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.06	-1	-10	9	16.6	14.7	1.82	15.6	16.6	-1.01
Lindsey Hunter	52	51	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.13	-6	-5	-1	15.9	15.6	0.27	15.1	17.3	-2.21
Joel Przybilla	24	25	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.03	-10	-1	-9	16.5	15.5	0.94	17.6	15.4	2.19
Glenn Robinson	80	79	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.14	-8	-3	-5	14.7	23.4	-8.64	16.1	16.1	-0.04
Tim Thomas	73	73	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.18	-9	-2	-7	15.9	15.1	0.89	15.9	16.6	-0.73
Sam Cassell	84	83	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.18	-9	-2	-7	15.4	20.4	-5.05	16.2	14.1	2.07
Ray Allen	73	73	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.18	-12	1	-13	15.8	15.7	0.13	16.3	14.9	1.45

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jermaine O'Neal	79	81	0.70	-0.20	0.91	0.18	18	-7	25	16.3	14.3	2.03	15.8	15.3	0.53
Reggie Miller	79	80	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.07	19	-8	27	15.9	17.5	-1.59	15.8	15.7	0.05
Derrick McKey	41	43	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.10	15	-4	19	15.3	16.7	-1.36	15.4	16.1	-0.75
Tyus Edney	17	16	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.15	9	2	7	13.0	16.8	-3.77	19.7	14.9	4.75
Austin Croshere	59	61	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.05	6	5	1	16.5	15.3	1.22	14.3	18.8	-4.57
Al Harrington	37	35	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.29	-3	14	-17	15.6	16.4	-0.83	17.3	14.8	2.46
Sam Perkins	35	35	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.04	2	9	-7	16.9	15.5	1.31	16.3	15.4	0.84
Jeff Foster	6	6	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.00	0	11	-11	16.3	16.0	0.30	19.8	15.5	4.35
Travis Best	74	76	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.05	-2	13	-15	16.7	13.1	3.56	14.7	21.0	-6.26
Zan Tabak	12	12	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	-0.01	-1	12	-13	16.6	16.0	0.61	18.2	15.4	2.76
Jonathan Bender	11	10	-0.28	0.78	-1.06	-0.05	-8	19	-27	15.0	16.2	-1.20	15.3	15.8	-0.53

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.63,0.61,0.53,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.62,0.64,0.51,0.49,0.59,0.61,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.64,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.67,0.55,0.71,0.68,0.69,0.7,0.71,0.64,0.81,0.92,0.9,0.96,0.94,0.96,0.94,0.96,0.92,0.99,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 77, SAS 99	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.63,0.53,0.6,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.68,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.56,0.59,0.58,0.56,0.61,0.54,0.63,0.6,0.67,0.63,0.58,0.56,0.62,0.67,0.69,0.77,0.79,0.87,0.92,0.93,0.96,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.7%
OKC 74, MEM 85	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.55,0.61,0.68,0.74,0.81,0.66,0.63,0.71,0.74,0.82,0.85,0.91,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1,1	94.7%
WAS 86, ORL 93	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.63,0.61,0.63,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.55,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.58,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.48,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.74,0.72,0.69,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.78,0.81,0.85,0.91,0.93,0.94,0.91,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1	94.6%