NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	110		Excitement	4.4 [901]		MVP	Eddie Jones (LAL): +9.7%
Seattle SuperSonics	95		Comeback	1.2 [454]		LVP	Gary Payton (SEA): -4.4%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Jones	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.01	-0.01	7	74%	0.10	0	0.00	9	100%	0.03
Kobe Bryant	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.01	-0.02	3	117%	0.09	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	-0.04	0.03	-0.10	13	50%	0.12	3	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Robert Horry	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	-0.00	0.02	7	76%	0.07	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Shaquille O'Neal	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	17	67%	0.15	5	-0.11	12	58%	-0.04
Corie Blount	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rick Fox	0.00	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	0.05	-0.01	0.04	10	77%	0.07	4	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Elden Campbell	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	2	67%	0.01	1	-0.02	5	40%	-0.03
Derek Fisher	-0.03	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vin Baker	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.10	-0.01	0.03	19	62%	0.05	0	0.00	7	57%	-0.03
Jerome Kersey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	12	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Nate McMillan	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sam Perkins	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.01	4	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jim McIlvaine	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Detlef Schrempf	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	13	50%	0.01	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Dale Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	0.01	4	58%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Hersey Hawkins	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.07	-0.00	-0.05	8	29%	-0.02	1	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Gary Payton	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	16	50%	0.03	3	-0.08	8	100%	0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	58.8	1.7	30.2	16.7	27.0	1.8	30.0	166.1
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +57.1%

LAL +6.2%

LAL +0.9%

SEA -17.6%

LAL +3.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	SEA	NBA	LAL	SEA	NBA
this game	17.0	16.1	15.6	125.0	110.5	102.5
season	14.8	15.3		110.0	109.3
opponent	16.2	15.6		102.3	102.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	13.2	16.6	17.1	21.8	17.0
SEA	16.8	17.7	14.9	14.9	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Robert Horry	66	65	0.57	-0.07	0.63	-0.02	20	-5	25	17.0	16.9	0.12	16.8	14.0	2.83
Eddie Jones	69	67	0.55	-0.05	0.59	-0.07	21	-6	27	16.2	19.8	-3.62	16.5	14.8	1.67
Shaquille O'Neal	73	72	0.53	-0.03	0.56	-0.06	20	-5	25	16.6	18.7	-2.09	16.6	13.6	2.93
Rick Fox	76	74	0.49	0.01	0.48	-0.07	19	-4	23	16.3	21.3	-5.02	16.0	16.4	-0.38
Derek Fisher	33	33	0.31	0.19	0.11	-0.16	16	-1	17	14.8	18.3	-3.54	16.3	16.0	0.34
Nick Van Exel	55	53	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.22	-1	16	-17	18.3	14.8	3.54	16.0	16.3	-0.34
Elden Campbell	15	14	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.12	-5	20	-25	18.7	16.6	2.09	13.6	16.6	-2.93
Kobe Bryant	19	19	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.13	-6	21	-27	19.8	16.2	3.62	14.8	16.5	-1.67
Corie Blount	34	33	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.21	-9	24	-33	18.5	16.1	2.40	14.8	16.9	-2.02

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dale Ellis	33	34	0.14	-0.65	0.79	-0.29	15	-30	45	15.4	16.5	-1.18	18.5	16.1	2.40
Jerome Kersey	36	37	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	-0.21	7	-22	29	16.6	15.7	0.84	16.8	17.2	-0.37
Nate McMillan	23	23	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.21	6	-21	27	15.4	16.3	-0.90	19.0	16.3	2.65
Jim McIlvaine	5	6	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	0.02	-4	-11	7	15.2	16.1	-0.95	13.2	17.3	-4.11
Vin Baker	66	66	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.03	-11	-4	-7	16.5	14.8	1.68	17.4	15.8	1.64
Hersey Hawkins	61	62	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	0.14	-20	5	-25	16.5	15.1	1.37	16.5	18.3	-1.80
Gary Payton	86	88	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.06	-15	0	-15	16.1	0.0	16.09	17.0	0.0	17.00
Sam Perkins	54	57	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	0.13	-23	8	-31	15.4	17.3	-1.99	17.0	17.1	-0.10
Detlef Schrempf	66	67	-0.68	0.18	-0.85	0.20	-30	15	-45	16.3	15.3	1.03	16.2	19.7	-3.50

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.35,0.32,0.26,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.21,0.27,0.33,0.39,0.34,0.31,0.29,0.23,0.16,0.18,0.24,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.16,0.11,0.09,0.18,0.13,0.09,0.15,0.13,0.11,0.12,0.08,0.12,0.11,0.06,0.1,0.03,0.01,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 101, MEM 87	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.36,0.29,0.26,0.26,0.24,0.23,0.24,0.28,0.23,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.36,0.29,0.26,0.33,0.25,0.27,0.31,0.28,0.25,0.24,0.16,0.08,0.09,0.14,0.11,0.09,0.13,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.5%
ATL 106, NJN 101	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.26,0.24,0.22,0.25,0.21,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.29,0.34,0.41,0.41,0.33,0.23,0.22,0.2,0.19,0.28,0.27,0.19,0.3,0.21,0.2,0.25,0.2,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.15,0.16,0.23,0.22,0.11,0.05,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0	94.4%
MIA 100, OKC 96	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.32,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.24,0.26,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.28,0.29,0.3,0.25,0.22,0.2,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.1,0.14,0.09,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.1,0.13,0.08,0.05,0.14,0.13,0.24,0.13,0.1,0.11,0.06,0.02,0	94.3%