NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	106		Excitement	5.0 [652]		MVP	Jeff Teague (ATL): +16.5%
New Jersey Nets	101		Comeback	1.1 [867]		LVP	Deron Williams (NJN): -15.6%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jeff Teague	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.16	0.10	0.06	-0.00	13	71%	0.22	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Josh Smith	0.12	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12	0.10	0.04	0.01	14	67%	0.21	3	-0.08	11	55%	-0.03
Joe Johnson	0.11	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11	0.10	0.04	0.04	15	65%	0.13	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.01
Vladimir Radmanovic	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	0.00	0.01	11	58%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Willie Green	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	1	150%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jannero Pargo	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tracy McGrady	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ivan Johnson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	2	0%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Al Horford	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	14	50%	0.04	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
MarShon Brooks	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.09	0.03	-0.00	14	63%	0.14	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Shawne Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.01	0.02	10	55%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Johan Petro	0,0,0.02,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	8	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Morrow	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0	-0.00	0.15	-0.02	0.13	11	74%	0.03	1	-0.03	5	80%	-0.01
Kris Humphries	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.03	7	65%	0.04	2	-0.05	6	83%	0.01
Shelden Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	6	57%	0.03	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Jordan Farmar	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	4	58%	0.03	3	-0.09	4	75%	-0.00
Deron Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.14	-0.03	-0.01	17	42%	-0.04	6	-0.12	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	1.8	27.4	15.7	23.0	3.4	36.0	130.8
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +51.0%

NJN -8.6%

NJN -4.0%

ATL +11.6%

NJN -0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	NJN	NBA	ATL	NJN	NBA
this game	15.8	16.4	15.6	117.8	113.5	102.8
season	15.7	16.2		102.5	101.3
opponent	15.2	15.9		107.6	99.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	13.6	13.7	19.3	17.6	15.8
NJN	17.7	15.2	16.7	16.0	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joe Johnson	78	78	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.27	10	-5	15	15.8	15.9	-0.12	16.9	12.5	4.36
Al Horford	79	79	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.31	8	-3	11	15.2	20.0	-4.77	16.8	13.1	3.68
Josh Smith	68	70	0.48	0.01	0.47	0.28	7	-2	9	16.2	14.7	1.49	16.5	15.8	0.74
Jeff Teague	77	78	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.34	2	3	-1	16.1	14.4	1.67	16.7	14.4	2.29
Vladimir Radmanovic	73	72	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.34	0	5	-5	16.1	14.7	1.36	16.2	17.1	-0.85
Jannero Pargo	13	11	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.01	3	2	1	14.4	16.1	-1.67	14.4	16.7	-2.29
Tracy McGrady	17	16	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.03	2	3	-1	15.6	15.9	-0.27	15.7	16.5	-0.83
Zaza Pachulia	24	24	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.07	-2	7	-9	18.0	15.0	2.98	15.1	16.8	-1.76
Ivan Johnson	4	3	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.00	0	5	-5	11.2	16.0	-4.77	18.0	16.3	1.69
Willie Green	17	14	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.12	-5	10	-15	14.2	16.2	-1.94	13.7	16.9	-3.15

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kris Humphries	47	50	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.27	13	-18	31	14.6	18.4	-3.76	17.3	13.9	3.35
Jordan Farmar	38	39	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.22	5	-10	15	14.3	17.9	-3.63	16.7	15.2	1.51
Shelden Williams	47	46	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.17	-2	-3	1	17.4	15.3	2.10	16.4	15.2	1.28
Shawne Williams	49	48	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.34	2	-7	9	16.4	16.4	-0.01	15.5	16.2	-0.71
Anthony Morrow	62	65	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.25	-4	-1	-3	16.5	16.0	0.53	14.9	18.3	-3.42
Johan Petro	49	50	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	0.06	-19	14	-33	17.1	15.5	1.54	15.4	16.3	-0.83
MarShon Brooks	75	74	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.30	-8	3	-11	17.0	13.1	3.83	16.2	14.0	2.20
Deron Williams	78	78	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.28	-12	7	-19	16.7	13.9	2.81	14.9	21.6	-6.66

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.26,0.24,0.22,0.25,0.21,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.29,0.34,0.41,0.41,0.33,0.23,0.22,0.2,0.19,0.28,0.27,0.19,0.3,0.21,0.2,0.25,0.2,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.15,0.16,0.23,0.22,0.11,0.05,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 110, SEA 95	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.35,0.32,0.26,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.21,0.27,0.33,0.39,0.34,0.31,0.29,0.23,0.16,0.18,0.24,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.16,0.11,0.09,0.18,0.13,0.09,0.15,0.13,0.11,0.12,0.08,0.12,0.11,0.06,0.1,0.03,0.01,0,0,0	94.4%
IND 112, DET 101	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.35,0.3,0.27,0.22,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.27,0.25,0.33,0.34,0.34,0.29,0.33,0.27,0.33,0.2,0.23,0.25,0.25,0.19,0.29,0.32,0.2,0.19,0.24,0.2,0.21,0.15,0.19,0.21,0.11,0.07,0.08,0.03,0.07,0.03,0,0,0,0	94.3%
DET 87, PHI 80	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.52,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.34,0.31,0.26,0.27,0.28,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.28,0.31,0.34,0.32,0.29,0.23,0.31,0.27,0.3,0.26,0.23,0.33,0.24,0.21,0.23,0.28,0.19,0.18,0.19,0.2,0.19,0.15,0.21,0.24,0.15,0.1,0.08,0.04,0.05,0.01,0,0,0	94.2%