NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	100		Excitement	5.4 [588]		MVP	Shane Battier (MIA): +23.6%
Oklahoma City Thunder	96		Comeback	1.0 [416]		LVP	Mario Chalmers (MIA): -11.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shane Battier	0.24	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.19	0.06	0.02	8	106%	0.24	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	0.19	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.17,0.15,0.21,0.19	0.09	0.08	-0.02	22	57%	0.24	2	-0.05	12	100%	0.09
Dwyane Wade	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.11,0.09	-0.00	0.07	-0.02	20	52%	0.15	3	-0.06	6	67%	-0.02
Chris Bosh	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	13	52%	0.06	2	-0.04	5	80%	0.00
James Jones	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Udonis Haslem	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.00	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Norris Cole	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	-0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.02	-0.02	7	21%	-0.04	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Harden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.12	0.02	0.03	11	72%	0.15	2	-0.04	7	71%	-0.01
Kevin Durant	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.05	0.05	0.14	-0.06	0.02	22	64%	0.09	2	-0.04	6	67%	-0.03
Serge Ibaka	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	50%	0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.02	0.00	26	46%	0.07	2	-0.07	7	71%	-0.00
Nick Collison	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	5	30%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	5	20%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.00	-0.01	5	33%	-0.03	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	33.7	3.4	35.4	16.8	32.1	3.6	40.4	165.3
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +35.3%

MIA +12.0%

MIA +6.9%

OKC -5.9%

MIA +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	OKC	NBA	MIA	OKC	NBA
this game	17.1	14.9	15.6	111.1	106.7	102.8
season	15.5	14.7		105.6	107.9
opponent	15.8	15.8		101.9	98.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.3	14.6	19.0	19.4	17.1
OKC	17.4	16.0	14.4	11.9	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Bosh	75	75	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.23	11	-7	18	17.4	15.6	1.77	15.4	12.7	2.63
LeBron James	82	82	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.37	6	-2	8	16.5	23.5	-7.05	14.4	20.7	-6.40
Dwyane Wade	72	70	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.19	10	-6	16	17.7	14.7	3.01	16.0	11.0	4.98
Mario Chalmers	71	73	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.28	6	-2	8	17.6	15.2	2.37	15.3	13.2	2.08
Shane Battier	76	77	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.31	5	-1	6	17.3	15.7	1.61	15.2	13.3	1.89
Norris Cole	25	27	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.22	-4	8	-12	16.4	17.3	-0.94	13.4	15.6	-2.11
Mike Miller	4	3	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.02	-1	5	-6	12.0	17.3	-5.31	5.3	15.3	-9.92
James Jones	12	12	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	0.07	-3	7	-10	12.6	17.8	-5.19	12.2	15.3	-3.08
Udonis Haslem	33	31	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.22	-10	14	-24	17.8	16.7	1.07	14.5	15.1	-0.62

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nick Collison	27	27	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.19	8	-12	20	14.0	15.3	-1.32	17.5	16.9	0.63
Derek Fisher	48	48	0.01	-0.51	0.51	-0.38	13	-17	30	13.9	16.1	-2.15	16.4	17.8	-1.37
James Harden	68	68	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.55	13	-17	30	13.5	19.3	-5.76	17.1	17.1	-0.08
Thabo Sefolosha	70	70	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.15	-3	-1	-2	14.9	14.8	0.09	17.0	17.3	-0.29
Kevin Durant	69	69	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.24	-9	5	-14	15.8	12.0	3.75	17.8	14.7	3.08
Kendrick Perkins	34	36	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.05	-16	12	-28	16.9	13.7	3.20	17.1	17.1	0.06
Serge Ibaka	56	54	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.08	-15	11	-26	16.0	13.1	2.85	16.3	18.2	-1.86
Russell Westbrook	78	78	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.28	-11	7	-18	14.7	16.7	-2.01	17.3	15.9	1.34

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.32,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.24,0.26,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.28,0.29,0.3,0.25,0.22,0.2,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.1,0.14,0.09,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.1,0.13,0.08,0.05,0.14,0.13,0.24,0.13,0.1,0.11,0.06,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 107, CLE 101	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.48,0.39,0.35,0.33,0.28,0.28,0.29,0.29,0.26,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.31,0.34,0.35,0.27,0.27,0.23,0.27,0.3,0.27,0.26,0.16,0.2,0.15,0.1,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.23,0.1,0.14,0.13,0.1,0.14,0.1,0.12,0.17,0.2,0.22,0.25,0.11,0.11,0.05,0	94.5%
HOU 119, DEN 114	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.39,0.34,0.35,0.33,0.34,0.35,0.29,0.25,0.25,0.17,0.2,0.21,0.29,0.33,0.28,0.33,0.24,0.17,0.13,0.11,0.14,0.19,0.18,0.27,0.23,0.19,0.23,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.15,0.1,0.01,0	94.4%
LAL 110, SEA 95	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.35,0.32,0.26,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.21,0.27,0.33,0.39,0.34,0.31,0.29,0.23,0.16,0.18,0.24,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.16,0.11,0.09,0.18,0.13,0.09,0.15,0.13,0.11,0.12,0.08,0.12,0.11,0.06,0.1,0.03,0.01,0,0,0	94.3%