NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	119		Excitement	5.2 [795]		MVP	James Harden (HOU): +25.4%
Denver Nuggets	114		Comeback	1.0 [1056]		LVP	Gary Harris (DEN): -16.6%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Harden	0.25	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.25,0.25	0.24	0.03	0.01	20	73%	0.35	5	-0.10	16	81%	0.02
Trevor Ariza	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.13	0.03	0.00	7	87%	0.15	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Chris Paul	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.04	0.03	14	61%	0.10	3	-0.04	10	90%	0.03
Ryan Anderson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	0.00	0.00	6	67%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
PJ Tucker	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	-0.00	-0.01	8	56%	0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Brandan Wright	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	3	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Johnson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	58%	0.01	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Luc Mbah a Moute	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	8	39%	-0.01	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Clint Capela	-0.11	0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.01	-0.02	6	50%	0.02	6	-0.13	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Will Barton	0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17	0.17	0.18	0.01	0.03	15	76%	0.18	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	0.00	0.02	3	86%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Jamal Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.08	-0.02	0.03	13	73%	0.07	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Trey Lyles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	8	67%	0.06	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.00
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.04,0,0,0	0.00	-0.04	0.04	0.00	18	47%	0.06	3	-0.06	9	78%	-0.00
Mason Plumlee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.02	2	100%	0.04	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Malik Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	10	41%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Wilson Chandler	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.03	0.04	10	50%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Gary Harris	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.13	-0.05	-0.02	12	21%	-0.17	0	0.00	5	40%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	2.5	29.3	14.6	24.7	1.7	36.2	133.4
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +35.2%

HOU +16.2%

HOU +4.5%

DEN -7.7%

HOU +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	DEN	NBA	HOU	DEN	NBA
this game	15.5	13.7	14.7	121.4	115.2	107.5
season	14.6	14.7		112.8	111.2
opponent	14.7	14.8		109.9	105.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	13.2	14.7	18.6	16.6	15.5
DEN	12.5	14.1	16.6	12.2	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Harden	76	76	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.19	12	-7	19	15.5	15.7	-0.25	13.6	14.1	-0.48
Luc Mbah a Moute	49	48	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.09	12	-7	19	13.8	17.2	-3.39	14.0	13.5	0.51
Ryan Anderson	43	43	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.05	10	-5	15	13.8	16.9	-3.10	13.6	13.8	-0.28
Trevor Ariza	66	65	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.34	-1	6	-7	16.7	13.1	3.57	13.6	13.9	-0.21
Joe Johnson	61	62	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.26	1	4	-3	14.5	17.3	-2.84	13.4	14.2	-0.75
Brandan Wright	31	33	0.25	0.25	0.01	-0.01	9	-4	13	14.5	16.0	-1.44	14.2	13.5	0.65
Chris Paul	65	67	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.27	-4	9	-13	16.2	14.3	1.85	13.7	13.7	0.04
PJ Tucker	48	50	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.21	-4	9	-13	16.5	14.6	1.82	13.7	13.7	-0.03
Clint Capela	51	51	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.37	-10	15	-25	17.4	13.5	3.92	13.9	13.5	0.42

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mason Plumlee	36	34	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.16	4	-9	13	13.8	13.7	0.10	16.1	15.2	0.81
Trey Lyles	48	48	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.16	1	-6	7	14.1	13.4	0.71	14.8	16.2	-1.37
Devin Harris	25	23	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.01	-5	0	-5	14.8	13.4	1.45	15.4	15.6	-0.18
Malik Beasley	44	42	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.15	-1	-4	3	14.0	13.5	0.47	15.6	15.5	0.11
Will Barton	75	74	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.35	4	-9	13	13.0	15.9	-2.90	16.1	13.9	2.19
Wilson Chandler	65	64	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.30	-4	-1	-3	13.9	13.4	0.42	15.4	15.7	-0.31
Jamal Murray	74	74	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.20	-8	3	-11	13.8	13.5	0.26	15.7	15.1	0.54
Gary Harris	65	67	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.24	-7	2	-9	13.4	14.2	-0.79	15.4	15.8	-0.40
Nikola Jokic	63	64	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.19	-9	4	-13	13.7	13.8	-0.10	15.2	16.1	-0.81

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.39,0.34,0.35,0.33,0.34,0.35,0.29,0.25,0.25,0.17,0.2,0.21,0.29,0.33,0.28,0.33,0.24,0.17,0.13,0.11,0.14,0.19,0.18,0.27,0.23,0.19,0.23,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.15,0.1,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 102, POR 98	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.34,0.33,0.34,0.32,0.3,0.31,0.34,0.3,0.25,0.22,0.2,0.25,0.21,0.28,0.3,0.23,0.18,0.2,0.17,0.11,0.1,0.11,0.12,0.18,0.09,0.16,0.23,0.2,0.16,0.18,0.17,0.12,0.1,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.09,0.06,0.02,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.09,0	94.5%
PHX 124, PHI 113	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.38,0.39,0.31,0.32,0.3,0.31,0.3,0.21,0.29,0.23,0.2,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.26,0.3,0.31,0.29,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.27,0.21,0.2,0.15,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.19,0.1,0.14,0.18,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0	94.5%
MIA 100, OKC 96	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.32,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.24,0.26,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.28,0.29,0.3,0.25,0.22,0.2,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.1,0.14,0.09,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.1,0.13,0.08,0.05,0.14,0.13,0.24,0.13,0.1,0.11,0.06,0.02,0	94.4%