NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New York Knicks	98		Excitement	4.1 [946]		MVP	Charlie Ward (NYK): +11.2%
Miami Heat	81		Comeback	1.0 [510]		LVP	Jamal Mashburn (MIA): -15.4%

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Charlie Ward	0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.04	0.07	-0.00	4	87%	0.13	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
John Starks	0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.12	-0.01	0.05	15	69%	0.07	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Charles Oakley	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.01	13	62%	0.06	2	-0.06	3	67%	-0.00
Buck Williams	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	7	60%	0.01	2	-0.01	6	100%	0.02
Anthony Bowie	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Allan Houston	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	23	55%	0.05	4	-0.06	9	89%	0.02
Terry Cummings	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Chris Childs	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.12	-0.02	-0.03	7	14%	-0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mark Strickland	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.01	0.00	5	75%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Terry Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	67%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
P.J. Brown	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.01	11	62%	0.01	1	-0.00	7	29%	-0.08
Marty Conlon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Duane Causwell	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	0.00	-0.03	6	47%	0.01	3	-0.05	3	67%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,0.01,-0.03,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	20	49%	0.04	4	-0.09	3	67%	0.00
Eric Murdock	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.10	-0.04	0.01	7	33%	-0.11	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.01
Jamal Mashburn	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.15	-0.00	0.01	18	35%	-0.10	3	-0.06	4	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	1.4	31.6	17.5	27.3	2.4	35.2	140.3
league avg	29.9	2.8	36.8	15.6	26.0	2.1	43.0	157.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NYK +21.7%

NYK +13.0%

NYK +10.8%

NYK +2.6%

NYK +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NYK	MIA	NBA	NYK	MIA	NBA
this game	16.3	16.1	15.6	111.4	90.0	102.5
season	15.7	15.8		100.4	104.7
opponent	16.2	16.3		99.8	98.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NYK	14.2	15.6	17.1	18.2	16.3
MIA	17.0	17.1	16.3	13.9	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Charles Oakley	88	90	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.00	17	0	17	16.3	0.0	16.27	16.1	0.0	16.09
Allan Houston	76	78	0.46	0.04	0.43	-0.03	17	0	17	16.1	17.1	-0.94	15.8	18.2	-2.49
Charlie Ward	55	58	0.43	0.07	0.37	-0.18	21	-4	25	15.3	18.0	-2.72	16.7	15.0	1.69
John Starks	70	73	0.39	0.11	0.27	-0.05	15	2	13	15.6	19.0	-3.43	15.9	17.1	-1.20
Buck Williams	54	55	0.34	0.16	0.19	-0.01	12	5	7	16.8	15.5	1.31	15.6	16.8	-1.16
Terry Cummings	35	36	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.03	5	12	-7	15.7	16.6	-0.93	16.4	15.9	0.45
Anthony Bowie	23	22	0.12	0.38	-0.25	0.07	2	15	-13	18.7	15.4	3.28	16.9	15.8	1.03
Chris Childs	39	38	0.07	0.42	-0.35	0.19	-4	21	-25	17.6	15.2	2.37	16.2	16.0	0.26

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mark Strickland	44	44	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.07	-1	-16	15	15.1	17.1	-2.00	17.7	14.9	2.77
Terry Mills	11	10	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.03	-3	-14	11	15.9	16.1	-0.20	17.2	16.2	1.05
Duane Causwell	13	11	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.09	-7	-10	3	15.5	16.2	-0.73	14.1	16.6	-2.49
Marty Conlon	9	10	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.04	-6	-11	5	13.8	16.3	-2.57	13.8	16.6	-2.79
Eric Murdock	55	54	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.09	-4	-13	9	16.2	15.9	0.24	16.9	15.2	1.69
Voshon Lenard	64	63	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.14	-17	0	-17	16.6	14.9	1.69	15.3	18.8	-3.53
Jamal Mashburn	76	73	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.06	-13	-4	-9	16.7	12.6	4.17	16.4	15.7	0.73
Tim Hardaway	90	88	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.00	-17	0	-17	16.1	0.0	16.09	16.3	0.0	16.27
P.J. Brown	88	87	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.02	-17	0	-17	16.0	21.0	-5.02	16.2	19.0	-2.76

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.4,0.41,0.36,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.31,0.25,0.3,0.26,0.23,0.18,0.13,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.11,0.15,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.15,0.09,0.12,0.17,0.19,0.36,0.11,0.17,0.02,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 117, CLE 103	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.44,0.4,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.38,0.27,0.25,0.21,0.22,0.23,0.21,0.2,0.18,0.14,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.16,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.24,0.15,0.21,0.15,0.09,0.03,0,0,0,0	95.1%
BOS 101, NYK 89	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.36,0.29,0.28,0.2,0.21,0.13,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.11,0.1,0.06,0.1,0.13,0.16,0.25,0.17,0.19,0.21,0.12,0.13,0.03,0.01,0,0,0	94.9%
IND 94, TOR 90	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.39,0.43,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.29,0.3,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.26,0.22,0.23,0.24,0.28,0.27,0.16,0.1,0.09,0.12,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.09,0.1,0.19,0.13,0.14,0.24,0.27,0.26,0.19,0.13,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.04,0	94.6%