NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	117		Excitement	4.8 [900]		MVP	Arron Afflalo (DEN): +16.2%
Cleveland Cavaliers	103		Comeback	1.0 [1262]		LVP	Antawn Jamison (CLE): -11.0%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Arron Afflalo	0.16	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.17	0.02	0.02	15	74%	0.16	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Carmelo Anthony	0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.03	0.05	-0.05	22	53%	0.19	4	-0.06	18	83%	0.02
J.R. Smith	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.00	-0.01	8	62%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ty Lawson	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06	0.07	0.01	0.02	13	56%	0.06	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.00
Nene	0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	0.00	0.01	3	64%	0.03	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.01
Kenyon Martin	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.02	-0.01	6	57%	0.04	1	-0.04	2	0%	-0.02
Shelden Williams	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	5	67%	0.04	2	-0.04	2	100%	-0.00
Chauncey Billups	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0.02	9	55%	0.01	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Al Harrington	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.10	0.00	-0.04	5	14%	-0.04	1	-0.01	4	50%	-0.03

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
JJ Hickson	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.17	0.01	0.03	12	75%	0.15	1	-0.00	8	50%	-0.03
Ramon Sessions	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.00	10	50%	0.06	0	0.00	8	75%	0.01
Samardo Samuels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Gee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joey Graham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.02	10	70%	0.05	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Manny Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	5	20%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Daniel Gibson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.02	-0.02	0.05	14	54%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Hollins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.04	0.01	2	100%	0.04	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Christian Eyenga	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	0.00	-0.00	9	33%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Antawn Jamison	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	0.01	19	44%	-0.00	4	-0.11	7	71%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.8	2.6	28.2	15.6	29.5	2.4	32.5	138.7
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +27.1%

DEN +6.2%

CLE -1.1%

DEN +14.0%

DEN +3.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	CLE	NBA	DEN	CLE	NBA
this game	15.3	13.4	15.5	115.8	103.0	105.7
season	14.3	15.1		110.7	100.8
opponent	15.4	15.5		110.2	106.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.4	15.3	15.1	17.6	15.3
CLE	13.7	13.0	13.1	13.7	13.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Carmelo Anthony	79	79	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.00	15	-1	16	14.5	18.0	-3.42	13.2	13.9	-0.62
Arron Afflalo	69	70	0.43	0.07	0.36	-0.01	15	-1	16	15.8	14.2	1.64	13.8	12.3	1.48
Ty Lawson	54	55	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.03	11	3	8	16.2	14.2	2.03	13.4	13.4	0.03
Al Harrington	54	53	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.07	7	7	0	16.2	14.2	1.95	13.1	13.7	-0.55
Shelden Williams	45	40	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.09	6	8	-2	15.3	15.2	0.06	12.9	13.6	-0.70
Chauncey Billups	69	68	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.05	7	7	0	14.7	16.6	-1.93	13.2	13.7	-0.51
J.R. Smith	58	56	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.18	2	12	-10	15.4	15.1	0.28	13.1	13.7	-0.68
Kenyon Martin	59	61	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.10	1	13	-12	14.8	16.0	-1.16	13.6	13.1	0.48
Nene	18	18	0.12	0.38	-0.27	-0.06	6	8	-2	14.4	15.5	-1.01	14.8	13.1	1.72

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ryan Hollins	19	20	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.04	3	-17	20	13.4	13.4	-0.00	15.0	15.3	-0.35
Alonzo Gee	1	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-14	14	11.0	13.4	-2.39	12.0	15.3	-3.34
Joey Graham	50	51	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.27	7	-21	28	13.2	13.6	-0.38	14.6	15.9	-1.31
Samardo Samuels	11	13	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.05	-6	-8	2	12.1	13.5	-1.44	13.2	15.6	-2.44
Manny Harris	16	17	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.02	-4	-10	6	12.7	13.5	-0.74	14.5	15.4	-0.90
Anthony Parker	40	41	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	0.02	-9	-5	-4	12.7	13.8	-1.08	16.0	14.8	1.22
Ramon Sessions	78	77	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.05	-9	-5	-4	13.7	12.3	1.35	15.7	13.9	1.78
Antawn Jamison	79	79	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.09	-10	-4	-6	13.2	14.1	-0.92	15.2	15.6	-0.40
JJ Hickson	68	68	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.07	-11	-3	-8	13.6	12.9	0.73	15.9	14.1	1.81
Daniel Gibson	76	75	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.03	-13	-1	-12	13.3	13.7	-0.45	14.9	16.5	-1.59
Christian Eyenga	62	62	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	0.06	-18	4	-22	14.1	12.2	1.96	15.6	14.7	0.87

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.44,0.4,0.41,0.41,0.37,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.38,0.27,0.25,0.21,0.22,0.23,0.21,0.2,0.18,0.14,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.16,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.24,0.15,0.21,0.15,0.09,0.03,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 101, NYK 89	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.36,0.29,0.28,0.2,0.21,0.13,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.11,0.1,0.06,0.1,0.13,0.16,0.25,0.17,0.19,0.21,0.12,0.13,0.03,0.01,0,0,0	95.2%
IND 94, TOR 90	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.39,0.43,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.29,0.3,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.26,0.22,0.23,0.24,0.28,0.27,0.16,0.1,0.09,0.12,0.08,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.09,0.1,0.19,0.13,0.14,0.24,0.27,0.26,0.19,0.13,0.07,0.03,0.01,0.04,0	95.1%
NYK 98, MIA 81	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.4,0.41,0.36,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.31,0.25,0.3,0.26,0.23,0.18,0.13,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.11,0.15,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.15,0.09,0.12,0.17,0.19,0.36,0.11,0.17,0.02,0,0,0,0	95.1%