NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	77		Excitement	6.9 [420]		MVP	Scottie Pippen (CHI): +7.6%
Chicago Bulls	84		Comeback	5.7 [302]		LVP	Jamal Mashburn (MIA): -23.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Voshon Lenard	0.05	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.13	-0.04	0.04	5	109%	0.05	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.06
Keith Askins	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ike Austin	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.02	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Dan Majerle	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	0.04	6	42%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
P.J. Brown	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	5	25%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	50%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	-0.02	-0.02	14	38%	-0.05	1	-0.03	6	50%	-0.06
Willie Anderson	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	3	60%	0.01	3	-0.11	4	75%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	-0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.18,-0.16	-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	13	51%	-0.06	3	-0.10	15	47%	-0.06
Jamal Mashburn	-0.24	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.15,-0.15,-0.25,-0.24	-0.12	-0.18	-0.06	12	38%	0.01	4	-0.24	2	50%	-0.02

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Scottie Pippen	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.02	-0.01	18	59%	0.17	2	-0.10	5	80%	0.01
Ron Harper	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.03	0.08	-0.00	9	33%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Randy Brown	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luc Longley	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0.02	4	60%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Jud Buechler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Caffey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Jordan	0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	31	51%	0.06	2	-0.10	10	70%	-0.03
Steve Kerr	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	4	37%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bison Dele	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.10	0.00	-0.02	7	14%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Toni Kukoc	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.14	0.00	-0.02	8	11%	-0.09	1	-0.04	2	0%	-0.03
Dennis Rodman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	5	40%	-0.02	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	-302.6	2.6	27.1	16.7	35.2	2.7	39.2	-179.2
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA -0.2%

CHI +0.2%

CHI +38.5%

CHI +22.4%

MIA -10.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CHI	NBA	MIA	CHI	NBA
this game	16.6	16.7	15.6	90.6	95.5	104.4
season	15.8	15.5		103.1	110.5
opponent	16.1	16.3		99.8	98.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.5	15.5	19.9	17.0	16.6
CHI	18.1	17.3	17.1	14.3	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ike Austin	31	33	0.28	-0.78	1.06	0.07	7	-14	21	16.5	16.7	-0.27	16.8	16.6	0.28
Keith Askins	14	15	0.13	-0.63	0.75	-0.05	6	-13	19	14.6	17.0	-2.37	17.7	16.5	1.28
Willie Anderson	22	22	0.04	-0.54	0.58	0.10	-2	-5	3	18.8	15.9	2.90	17.3	16.5	0.86
Dan Majerle	49	50	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.30	-2	-5	3	16.2	17.2	-1.09	15.8	17.9	-2.11
Jamal Mashburn	70	72	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.05	-13	6	-19	17.3	13.7	3.59	16.2	18.8	-2.62
Alonzo Mourning	67	70	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.36	-3	-4	1	16.4	17.3	-0.90	17.0	15.3	1.68
P.J. Brown	42	42	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.20	-10	3	-13	16.3	16.9	-0.57	17.7	15.7	2.04
Tim Hardaway	85	88	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.29	-7	0	-7	16.6	0.0	16.62	16.7	0.0	16.67
Voshon Lenard	45	48	-0.71	0.21	-0.92	-0.38	-11	4	-15	16.4	16.9	-0.52	16.1	17.3	-1.15

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ron Harper	54	51	0.67	-0.17	0.83	0.37	10	-3	13	16.8	16.5	0.28	17.3	15.6	1.63
Dennis Rodman	64	63	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.28	13	-6	19	17.0	15.8	1.15	17.0	15.4	1.64
Scottie Pippen	78	75	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.25	13	-6	19	16.5	17.8	-1.27	16.8	15.5	1.27
Michael Jordan	78	75	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.24	10	-3	13	16.7	16.5	0.19	16.5	17.4	-0.88
Toni Kukoc	37	37	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.44	-1	8	-9	16.6	16.7	-0.04	16.0	17.1	-1.10
Randy Brown	9	10	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.01	2	5	-3	14.4	16.9	-2.48	14.6	16.9	-2.29
Jud Buechler	13	14	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	-0.06	2	5	-3	14.2	17.1	-2.95	17.9	16.4	1.56
Luc Longley	30	28	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	-0.05	-1	8	-9	16.9	16.6	0.30	18.2	15.9	2.32
Jason Caffey	7	6	-0.09	0.58	-0.67	0.03	-4	11	-15	17.6	16.6	0.98	14.7	16.8	-2.11
Bison Dele	39	37	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	-0.04	-2	9	-11	17.2	16.2	1.01	14.9	18.0	-3.07
Steve Kerr	31	29	-0.19	0.69	-0.88	0.02	-7	14	-21	16.8	16.6	0.16	16.4	16.7	-0.32

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.43,0.48,0.47,0.5,0.46,0.37,0.37,0.33,0.31,0.31,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.29,0.27,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.15,0.19,0.24,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.26,0.35,0.48,0.44,0.37,0.29,0.3,0.3,0.25,0.29,0.37,0.36,0.29,0.28,0.38,0.78,0.8,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 75, IND 80	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.39,0.33,0.29,0.27,0.35,0.3,0.31,0.3,0.25,0.24,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.28,0.23,0.21,0.2,0.23,0.2,0.25,0.19,0.21,0.29,0.32,0.38,0.3,0.26,0.25,0.15,0.13,0.18,0.14,0.15,0.21,0.29,0.34,0.47,0.78,0.97,0.99,1	91.9%
ORL 99, MIA 101	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.39,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.29,0.25,0.31,0.26,0.25,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.1,0.14,0.2,0.28,0.19,0.24,0.34,0.41,0.48,0.37,0.48,0.32,0.26,0.26,0.38,0.33,0.28,0.26,0.34,0.46,0.47,0.63,0.86,0.84,1	91.3%
TOR 98, WAS 106	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.36,0.37,0.38,0.41,0.43,0.38,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.32,0.27,0.24,0.24,0.29,0.27,0.24,0.25,0.27,0.2,0.23,0.23,0.36,0.48,0.36,0.35,0.45,0.45,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.5,0.38,0.25,0.21,0.23,0.3,0.46,0.52,0.31,0.72,0.64,0.95,1	91.3%