NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	98		Excitement	8.0 [266]		MVP	Bradley Beal (WAS): +16.9%
Washington Wizards	106		Comeback	6.6 [151]		LVP	Serge Ibaka (TOR): -15.6%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jakob Poeltl	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.04	-0.00	6	71%	0.11	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Jonas Valanciunas	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.01	6	73%	0.12	3	-0.06	3	100%	0.02
Delon Wright	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	7	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.17,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.07	-0.05	-0.01	15	61%	0.08	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
OG Anunoby	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.01	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pascal Siakam	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	4	30%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
CJ Miles	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.03	-0.02	4	25%	-0.02	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	-0.16	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.1,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,-0.09,-0.08,-0.16,-0.16	-0.04	-0.09	0.02	29	46%	-0.05	4	-0.10	18	78%	-0.01
Serge Ibaka	-0.16	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16	-0.07	-0.09	-0.01	5	50%	0.02	4	-0.18	4	50%	-0.03

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bradley Beal	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.11,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.22,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.14	0.04	0.01	19	69%	0.29	4	-0.12	7	86%	0.03
Otto Porter Jr.	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.03	-0.01	8	60%	0.09	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.04
Marcin Gortat	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.03	0.01	8	63%	0.10	1	-0.03	3	0%	-0.05
Markieff Morris	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.05	-0.01	7	43%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Oubre Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.03	0.02	6	53%	0.06	1	-0.04	7	86%	-0.02
Ian Mahinmi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Scott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.03	-0.00	5	40%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tomas Satoransky	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Wall	0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.07,-0.14,-0.05,-0.02	-0.02	-0.07	0.05	0.00	24	47%	0.09	4	-0.11	10	70%	-0.03
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	4	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	32.7	2.8	30.0	15.6	31.9	3.6	40.6	157.2
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +43.7%

TOR -4.8%

TOR -2.5%

WAS +13.1%

WAS +0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	WAS	NBA	TOR	WAS	NBA
this game	14.8	14.0	14.7	98.0	106.0	107.5
season	14.6	14.8		112.7	108.2
opponent	14.7	14.8		107.9	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	12.0	15.0	15.3	17.3	14.8
WAS	14.7	15.0	12.9	13.4	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Pascal Siakam	38	36	0.09	-0.59	0.68	0.18	-3	-5	2	14.9	14.7	0.17	15.3	13.3	2.02
CJ Miles	43	45	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.04	1	-9	10	14.7	14.8	-0.12	15.3	13.0	2.33
OG Anunoby	49	49	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	0.02	-4	-4	0	13.7	15.9	-2.19	13.8	14.2	-0.46
Jonas Valanciunas	34	34	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.03	-5	-3	-2	14.4	15.0	-0.62	13.1	14.5	-1.35
Jakob Poeltl	48	48	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.29	3	-11	14	15.7	13.9	1.77	14.7	13.3	1.42
Delon Wright	54	54	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.33	1	-9	10	15.5	13.9	1.58	14.4	13.5	0.94
Kyle Lowry	81	81	-0.53	0.03	-0.55	-0.23	-10	2	-12	15.0	14.0	0.98	13.8	14.8	-1.03
Serge Ibaka	72	72	-0.65	0.15	-0.79	-0.32	-11	3	-14	14.7	15.1	-0.39	13.3	15.9	-2.62
DeMar DeRozan	81	81	-0.72	0.22	-0.93	-0.36	-12	4	-16	14.5	16.0	-1.49	13.4	16.8	-3.43

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Markieff Morris	64	64	0.87	-0.37	1.24	0.40	16	-8	24	13.2	15.4	-2.11	15.1	14.3	0.80
Marcin Gortat	56	58	0.87	-0.37	1.24	0.46	14	-6	20	13.4	14.7	-1.28	15.8	13.3	2.51
Otto Porter Jr.	82	83	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.35	9	-1	10	13.9	14.4	-0.53	15.0	13.5	1.52
John Wall	90	90	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.27	9	-1	10	13.8	15.9	-2.10	14.8	14.6	0.21
Kelly Oubre Jr.	51	48	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.07	5	3	2	14.1	13.9	0.18	14.6	15.0	-0.40
Bradley Beal	66	67	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.04	5	3	2	13.8	14.4	-0.52	14.7	14.9	-0.18
Ian Mahinmi	16	16	-0.15	0.65	-0.79	0.00	-5	13	-18	15.1	13.8	1.33	13.9	15.0	-1.09
Mike Scott	32	31	-0.15	0.65	-0.79	-0.17	1	7	-6	14.7	13.7	1.09	13.7	15.3	-1.52
Tomas Satoransky	13	14	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.02	-6	14	-20	13.7	14.1	-0.37	13.7	15.0	-1.25
Ty Lawson	30	29	-0.34	0.84	-1.19	-0.11	-8	16	-24	16.6	12.9	3.65	13.9	15.2	-1.31

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.36,0.37,0.38,0.41,0.43,0.38,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.32,0.27,0.24,0.24,0.29,0.27,0.24,0.25,0.27,0.2,0.23,0.23,0.36,0.48,0.36,0.35,0.45,0.45,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.5,0.38,0.25,0.21,0.23,0.3,0.46,0.52,0.31,0.72,0.64,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 102, MIN 109	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.38,0.34,0.3,0.26,0.3,0.34,0.31,0.37,0.41,0.36,0.39,0.28,0.25,0.3,0.33,0.31,0.23,0.25,0.24,0.33,0.38,0.35,0.41,0.27,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.38,0.29,0.28,0.23,0.31,0.35,0.39,0.32,0.55,0.57,0.98,1	91.7%
MIA 77, CHI 84	0.5,0.51,0.43,0.48,0.47,0.5,0.46,0.37,0.37,0.33,0.31,0.31,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.29,0.27,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.15,0.19,0.24,0.2,0.2,0.21,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.26,0.35,0.48,0.44,0.37,0.29,0.3,0.3,0.25,0.29,0.37,0.36,0.29,0.28,0.38,0.78,0.8,0.99,1	91.3%
CLE 91, DEN 98	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.32,0.35,0.36,0.3,0.31,0.35,0.28,0.28,0.34,0.34,0.26,0.27,0.22,0.2,0.21,0.23,0.2,0.22,0.28,0.42,0.35,0.31,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.47,0.32,0.36,0.47,0.6,0.45,0.63,0.57,0.72,1	91.0%