NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	99		Excitement	8.2 [226]		MVP	LeBron James (MIA): +45.1%
Miami Heat	101		Comeback	9.6 [518]		LVP	Jameer Nelson (ORL): -12.6%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Glen Davis	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.01,0.01,-0.04,0.24	0.06	0.18	-0.00	13	59%	0.37	2	-0.13	8	75%	0.01
Victor Oladipo	0.13	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.13	0.10	0.03	0.00	8	68%	0.15	1	-0.03	9	89%	0.03
E'Twaun Moore	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.14	-0.00	0.01	5	140%	0.17	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Vucevic	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08	-0.00	0.06	-0.02	9	55%	0.10	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Solomon Jones	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Nicholson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.02	-0.00	3	20%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.04
Maurice Harkless	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05	-0.10	0.01	-0.03	8	28%	-0.01	2	-0.04	2	0%	-0.05
Arron Afflalo	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,-0.09	0.00	-0.09	-0.00	17	50%	-0.03	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.03
Jameer Nelson	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.06	-0.06	0.01	10	55%	0.04	5	-0.16	2	100%	0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0.15,0.25,0.25,0.45	0.45	0.07	0.38	-0.01	13	67%	0.51	3	-0.06	7	71%	0.02
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.34,0.34,0.36	0.36	0.15	0.21	-0.00	16	64%	0.38	1	-0.03	10	90%	0.05
Chris Bosh	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.01	0.10	0.01	13	52%	0.17	2	-0.08	3	100%	0.03
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.01	-0.02	4	75%	0.06	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.06	-0.00	0.02	4	90%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.01	7	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	5	42%	0.02	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	6	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Norris Cole	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.04	-0.00	8	31%	-0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	1.7	25.7	15.0	26.7	1.8	39.9	136.0
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +33.0%

ORL -0.6%

ORL -14.5%

MIA +29.7%

MIA +2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	MIA	NBA	ORL	MIA	NBA
this game	15.1	15.5	15.1	105.3	107.4	105.2
season	15.3	15.6		100.4	109.7
opponent	15.8	15.0		105.1	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	13.6	16.3	14.1	17.1	15.1
MIA	13.6	18.9	14.7	15.6	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
E'Twaun Moore	41	41	0.35	-0.85	1.19	-0.04	13	-15	28	15.3	15.0	0.30	16.5	14.7	1.73
Andrew Nicholson	35	35	0.26	-0.76	1.01	-0.01	9	-11	20	15.5	14.9	0.54	16.9	14.7	2.22
Solomon Jones	6	6	0.09	-0.59	0.68	-0.03	4	-6	10	14.3	15.2	-0.87	14.0	15.6	-1.59
Victor Oladipo	54	55	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.29	-1	-1	0	14.6	15.9	-1.35	15.2	15.9	-0.79
Glen Davis	50	51	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.53	2	-4	6	15.5	14.7	0.75	15.8	15.1	0.64
Arron Afflalo	80	80	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.33	-6	4	-10	15.0	16.1	-1.08	15.2	17.1	-1.94
Nikola Vucevic	62	60	-0.60	0.10	-0.71	-0.37	-8	6	-14	15.4	14.6	0.84	15.0	16.4	-1.35
Maurice Harkless	67	66	-0.65	0.15	-0.79	-0.32	-11	9	-20	15.2	14.9	0.31	15.5	15.5	-0.07
Jameer Nelson	75	76	-0.65	0.15	-0.79	-0.29	-12	10	-22	15.0	15.7	-0.74	15.2	16.8	-1.59

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Bosh	63	64	0.93	-0.43	1.36	0.52	14	-12	26	14.5	17.5	-3.07	15.3	14.9	0.41
Dwyane Wade	66	66	0.85	-0.35	1.20	0.67	6	-4	10	16.1	14.0	2.07	15.4	14.5	0.92
LeBron James	74	76	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.30	7	-5	12	15.1	16.9	-1.86	14.9	16.3	-1.40
Ray Allen	50	49	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.48	0	2	-2	15.4	15.6	-0.15	15.9	14.3	1.61
Norris Cole	49	49	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.46	-1	3	-4	16.5	14.4	2.05	15.8	14.5	1.27
Shane Battier	42	43	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.06	11	-9	20	15.0	15.9	-0.88	15.1	15.2	-0.15
Mario Chalmers	45	45	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.02	3	-1	4	14.4	16.5	-2.05	14.5	15.8	-1.27
Michael Beasley	16	16	-0.17	0.67	-0.85	0.00	-6	8	-14	12.5	16.1	-3.60	14.4	15.3	-0.86
Rashard Lewis	34	32	-0.43	0.93	-1.36	-0.08	-12	14	-26	17.3	14.5	2.78	14.5	15.5	-0.98
Chris Andersen	31	30	-0.43	0.93	-1.36	-0.08	-12	14	-26	17.5	14.5	3.07	14.9	15.3	-0.41

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.39,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.29,0.25,0.31,0.26,0.25,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.2,0.1,0.14,0.2,0.28,0.19,0.24,0.34,0.41,0.48,0.37,0.48,0.32,0.26,0.26,0.38,0.33,0.28,0.26,0.34,0.46,0.47,0.63,0.86,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 103, WAS 105	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.46,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.41,0.44,0.38,0.32,0.3,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.27,0.24,0.18,0.17,0.29,0.28,0.3,0.33,0.2,0.19,0.18,0.11,0.19,0.24,0.29,0.35,0.45,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.26,0.22,0.29,0.29,0.37,0.36,0.27,0.47,0.38,0.63,0.78,0.73,1	92.7%
MEM 94, MIN 98	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.33,0.32,0.37,0.34,0.3,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.27,0.22,0.13,0.15,0.12,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.25,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.41,0.45,0.34,0.29,0.25,0.26,0.38,0.43,0.43,0.32,0.36,0.3,0.53,0.55,0.63,0.84,0.73,1	92.3%
NOH 117, ORL 123	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.38,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.38,0.4,0.33,0.31,0.32,0.31,0.25,0.21,0.25,0.33,0.12,0.09,0.16,0.2,0.22,0.24,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.37,0.32,0.22,0.3,0.2,0.17,0.08,0.22,0.35,0.46,0.45,0.79,0.84,0.98,1	92.0%