NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	93		Excitement	5.3 [727]		MVP	Aaron McKie (DET): +13.9%
Atlanta Hawks	80		Comeback	1.9 [406]		LVP	Grant Hill (DET): -17.5%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Aaron McKie	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.06	0.10	0.02	5	70%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.08	0.01	0.03	10	65%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Grant Long	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.10	0.00	0.07	7	74%	0.02	0	0.00	9	100%	0.05
Terry Mills	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	0.02	0.04	8	44%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Otis Thorpe	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0.01	9	60%	0.05	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Joe Dumars	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	13	44%	0.03	4	-0.12	1	100%	0.01
Grant Hill	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.15,-0.19,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.02	-0.02	19	49%	-0.02	7	-0.15	13	85%	0.01

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyrone Corbin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.04	-0.00	11	64%	0.15	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dikembe Mutombo	0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.01	9	65%	0.04	1	-0.02	8	87%	0.02
Ivano Newbill	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Priest Lauderdale	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Henry James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eldridge Recasner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.09	-0.00	-0.07	3	0%	-0.02	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alan Henderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	1	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Steven Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	19	54%	0.05	5	-0.11	3	33%	-0.04
Christian Laettner	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.04	-0.04	0.02	13	64%	0.06	6	-0.16	2	100%	0.01
Mookie Blaylock	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.18,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.10	-0.04	0.03	12	29%	-0.12	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	3.3	28.6	16.6	27.0	2.5	35.2	139.6
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +17.9%

DET +13.9%

DET +6.7%

DET +9.1%

DET +2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	ATL	NBA	DET	ATL	NBA
this game	17.0	16.9	15.6	108.1	95.2	104.4
season	17.1	16.4		107.6	105.3
opponent	16.0	16.2		100.3	102.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	19.6	17.1	13.8	18.2	17.0
ATL	16.4	16.4	17.0	17.8	16.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joe Dumars	79	76	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.17	16	-3	19	17.0	17.4	-0.44	16.6	18.9	-2.23
Aaron McKie	44	43	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.10	18	-5	23	17.7	16.3	1.49	16.6	17.1	-0.47
Grant Long	58	55	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.17	11	2	9	17.7	15.7	1.94	16.8	17.0	-0.17
Terry Mills	70	70	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.23	8	5	3	17.2	16.2	1.03	17.2	15.2	1.97
Grant Hill	66	67	0.17	0.33	-0.15	-0.00	6	7	-1	16.4	18.9	-2.51	17.6	13.8	3.88
Lindsey Hunter	73	70	0.11	0.39	-0.28	-0.07	6	7	-1	16.6	19.4	-2.78	15.8	22.1	-6.34
Otis Thorpe	40	39	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.00	0	13	-13	16.8	17.2	-0.46	17.6	16.2	1.32

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Priest Lauderdale	1	1	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.02	0	-13	13	16.0	16.9	-0.87	39.0	16.8	22.24
Ivano Newbill	3	2	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.03	0	-13	13	16.0	16.9	-0.89	21.0	16.9	4.07
Christian Laettner	78	78	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.06	-2	-11	9	16.5	22.0	-5.54	17.0	17.4	-0.39
Alan Henderson	15	16	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	0.03	-9	-4	-5	17.3	16.8	0.50	17.1	17.0	0.12
Eldridge Recasner	29	32	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	0.05	-10	-3	-7	13.4	18.7	-5.26	15.3	18.1	-2.77
Henry James	3	4	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.04	-7	-6	-1	29.3	16.4	12.94	20.7	16.8	3.91
Tyrone Corbin	68	67	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.16	-6	-7	1	18.1	11.5	6.62	17.3	15.9	1.38
Mookie Blaylock	78	80	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.12	-8	-5	-3	16.8	17.3	-0.51	17.2	15.0	2.18
Dikembe Mutombo	64	67	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.13	-9	-4	-5	17.0	16.2	0.80	16.4	19.2	-2.81
Steven Smith	81	83	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.11	-14	1	-15	16.8	18.3	-1.53	17.3	10.0	7.28

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.53,0.52,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.35,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.31,0.31,0.32,0.3,0.36,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.37,0.41,0.43,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.45,0.62,0.65,0.56,0.4,0.64,0.54,0.48,0.43,0.24,0.19,0.11,0.07,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 107, PHX 100	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.38,0.48,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.29,0.36,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.48,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.62,0.53,0.52,0.56,0.46,0.38,0.43,0.34,0.24,0.1,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0	93.7%
TOR 100, UTA 87	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.62,0.64,0.63,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.33,0.37,0.34,0.32,0.31,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.46,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.59,0.55,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.42,0.42,0.29,0.29,0.32,0.14,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.02,0,0,0	93.3%
MIA 97, TOR 79	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.42,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.22,0.24,0.36,0.41,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.42,0.48,0.58,0.62,0.59,0.44,0.44,0.56,0.46,0.34,0.34,0.17,0.12,0.14,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	93.2%